Rutgers
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#66
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#73
Pace71.3#106
Improvement+2.4#78

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#62
First Shot+3.0#92
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#87
Layup/Dunks+2.7#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#267
Freethrows+1.5#91
Improvement+0.9#125

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#78
First Shot+4.3#52
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#233
Layups/Dunks-0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#174
Freethrows+3.4#11
Improvement+1.5#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 15.6% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.2% 15.3% 4.9%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.0
.500 or above 28.9% 46.4% 20.9%
.500 or above in Conference 13.1% 25.0% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 2.7% 9.9%
First Four3.5% 6.2% 2.3%
First Round6.4% 12.3% 3.8%
Second Round2.6% 4.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 13
Quad 24 - 27 - 15
Quad 32 - 210 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 335   Wagner W 75-52 97%     1 - 0 +8.9 +0.8 +8.5
  Nov 11, 2024 232   St. Peter's W 75-65 91%     2 - 0 +3.3 +9.2 -5.1
  Nov 15, 2024 267   Monmouth W 98-81 94%     3 - 0 +8.3 +21.1 -12.9
  Nov 20, 2024 206   Merrimack W 74-63 89%     4 - 0 +6.1 +4.3 +2.2
  Nov 24, 2024 183   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-79 74%     4 - 1 -0.2 -3.6 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2024 77   Notre Dame W 85-84 OT 54%     5 - 1 +8.3 +9.2 -1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 7   Alabama L 90-95 15%     5 - 2 +14.4 +13.5 +1.5
  Nov 30, 2024 21   Texas A&M L 77-81 25%     5 - 3 +11.3 +5.7 +6.0
  Dec 07, 2024 36   @ Ohio St. L 66-80 25%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +1.3 +4.9 -4.4
  Dec 10, 2024 51   Penn St. W 80-76 52%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +11.8 +6.5 +5.2
  Dec 14, 2024 132   Seton Hall W 66-63 81%     7 - 4 +2.1 -0.9 +3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 122   Princeton L 82-83 71%     7 - 5 +1.6 +5.1 -3.4
  Dec 30, 2024 207   Columbia W 91-64 89%     8 - 5 +22.0 +9.0 +12.1
  Jan 02, 2025 56   @ Indiana L 74-84 34%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +2.7 +3.5 -0.1
  Jan 06, 2025 18   Wisconsin L 63-75 33%     8 - 7 1 - 3 +1.1 -4.9 +5.9
  Jan 09, 2025 10   Purdue L 50-68 27%     8 - 8 1 - 4 -3.1 -11.7 +6.7
  Jan 13, 2025 31   UCLA W 75-68 43%     9 - 8 2 - 4 +17.2 +14.8 +2.9
  Jan 16, 2025 52   @ Nebraska W 85-82 32%     10 - 8 3 - 4 +16.3 +27.7 -11.2
  Jan 20, 2025 51   @ Penn St. L 77-82 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 12   Michigan St. L 70-79 21%    
  Jan 29, 2025 55   @ Northwestern L 68-72 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 11   Michigan L 75-81 30%    
  Feb 05, 2025 9   Illinois L 75-83 24%    
  Feb 09, 2025 25   @ Maryland L 71-80 20%    
  Feb 12, 2025 50   Iowa W 85-84 52%    
  Feb 16, 2025 28   @ Oregon L 71-79 22%    
  Feb 19, 2025 95   @ Washington L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 23, 2025 61   USC W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 27, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 72-84 13%    
  Mar 04, 2025 10   @ Purdue L 67-79 13%    
  Mar 09, 2025 98   Minnesota W 72-66 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 4th
5th 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.2 3.1 7th
8th 0.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.2 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 4.5 1.0 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.2 4.4 4.0 0.2 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.7 6.7 1.4 9.8 12th
13th 0.4 5.7 5.1 0.3 11.4 13th
14th 0.1 2.9 8.1 1.4 0.0 12.6 14th
15th 0.0 1.3 6.8 4.2 0.2 12.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 4.6 6.0 0.9 0.0 12.2 16th
17th 0.2 2.1 4.3 1.3 0.1 8.0 17th
18th 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.7 18th
Total 0.7 4.2 11.0 17.4 20.8 19.3 13.4 7.6 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 16.7% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.4% 89.1% 1.4% 87.7% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 89.0%
11-9 3.7% 67.2% 1.3% 65.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.2 66.8%
10-10 7.6% 38.4% 0.5% 37.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.2 4.7 38.1%
9-11 13.4% 8.4% 0.2% 8.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 12.3 8.2%
8-12 19.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.1 0.8%
7-13 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 20.8
6-14 17.4% 17.4
5-15 11.0% 11.0
4-16 4.2% 4.2
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.4% 0.2% 8.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.1 0.3 91.7 8.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%