Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#131
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#129
Pace75.0#35
Improvement+4.1#35

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#182
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#13
Layup/Dunks-6.5#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+3.9#14
Improvement+0.7#146

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#114
First Shot+0.5#166
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#67
Layups/Dunks-0.7#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#85
Freethrows-2.7#341
Improvement+3.4#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 10.2% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.2
.500 or above 77.2% 90.8% 53.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 100.0% 80.0%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.1% 10.2% 7.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 89 - 14
Quad 47 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 158   @ California Baptist L 84-88 46%     0 - 1 -1.2 +7.8 -8.8
  Nov 16, 2024 270   Presbyterian W 85-67 82%     1 - 1 +9.7 +10.3 +0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 211   Abilene Christian W 84-78 74%     2 - 1 +0.8 +9.2 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2024 63   Rutgers W 79-77 34%     3 - 1 +7.8 -0.5 +8.1
  Nov 28, 2024 85   UC Irvine L 59-76 31%     3 - 2 -10.3 -10.0 +0.7
  Nov 29, 2024 157   Towson W 67-63 OT 55%     4 - 2 +4.4 -0.6 +5.2
  Nov 30, 2024 137   Kent St. L 60-67 52%     4 - 3 -5.7 -9.8 +4.0
  Dec 06, 2024 252   @ Georgia St. W 81-77 66%     5 - 3 +1.5 +0.0 +1.2
  Dec 18, 2024 60   @ Santa Clara L 74-94 16%     5 - 4 -7.7 +1.0 -7.3
  Dec 21, 2024 163   @ San Jose St. L 65-89 47%     5 - 5 -21.6 -12.5 -7.4
  Jan 04, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. W 83-71 58%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +11.5 +11.7 +0.1
  Jan 09, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 79-84 38%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -0.2 +3.2 -3.0
  Jan 11, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky L 69-85 41%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -12.1 -6.6 -4.0
  Jan 16, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. W 75-69 OT 65%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +3.6 -9.3 +12.1
  Jan 18, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech W 78-76 58%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +1.6 +9.1 -7.4
  Jan 23, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. W 69-56 43%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +16.4 +2.7 +14.0
  Jan 25, 2025 139   @ UTEP L 71-73 42%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +1.7 -2.1 +3.9
  Jan 30, 2025 77   Liberty L 68-76 38%     9 - 9 4 - 4 -3.2 +1.4 -4.7
  Feb 01, 2025 268   Florida International W 73-67 82%     10 - 9 5 - 4 -2.1 -4.2 +1.7
  Feb 06, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 76-69 61%     11 - 9 6 - 4 +5.8 +3.2 +2.5
  Feb 08, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee L 75-76 58%     11 - 10 6 - 5 -1.3 +0.8 -2.1
  Feb 13, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech W 69-47 38%     12 - 10 7 - 5 +26.7 +8.5 +21.5
  Feb 15, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. L 76-78 46%     12 - 11 7 - 6 +0.7 +2.6 -1.9
  Feb 20, 2025 139   UTEP W 83-73 61%     13 - 11 8 - 6 +8.6 +8.9 -0.4
  Feb 22, 2025 146   New Mexico St. W 71-68 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 268   @ Florida International W 77-72 65%    
  Mar 02, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 66-74 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 71-74 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.2 2.5 1st
2nd 0.3 7.1 1.5 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 9.9 11.7 0.0 21.8 3rd
4th 3.9 22.8 2.5 29.2 4th
5th 0.2 13.3 6.7 0.0 20.2 5th
6th 2.9 8.7 0.4 12.0 6th
7th 3.7 1.4 5.1 7th
8th 0.3 0.3 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 7.2 27.4 40.1 21.6 3.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 59.3% 2.2    0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1
11-7 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.8% 17.6% 17.6% 12.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.1
11-7 21.6% 11.4% 11.4% 13.3 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 19.1
10-8 40.1% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 36.2
9-9 27.4% 6.2% 6.2% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 25.7
8-10 7.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 6.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.7 2.8 3.9 1.6 0.2 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.5 54.5 39.4 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 3.9%