New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#146
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#164
Pace64.5#281
Improvement+3.4#47

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#243
First Shot-5.3#319
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#33
Layup/Dunks-6.9#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#221
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement-1.8#275

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#81
First Shot+4.8#50
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#300
Layups/Dunks+5.2#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#176
Freethrows-3.2#351
Improvement+5.2#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.1% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 30.0% 50.3% 18.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 93.0% 64.4%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.6% 7.1% 6.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 35 - 68 - 12
Quad 46 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 290   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 70%     1 - 0 +7.5 +0.1 +7.6
  Nov 14, 2024 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 70%     2 - 0 -3.7 +3.3 -7.0
  Nov 20, 2024 83   @ Dayton L 53-74 21%     2 - 1 -11.7 -9.6 -5.3
  Nov 23, 2024 98   @ UNLV L 65-72 26%     2 - 2 +0.4 +1.4 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2024 226   Pepperdine L 70-82 66%     2 - 3 -15.5 -8.9 -5.9
  Nov 30, 2024 301   Bowling Green L 60-61 79%     2 - 4 -8.8 -13.7 +4.8
  Dec 04, 2024 211   Abilene Christian L 70-78 72%     2 - 5 -13.2 +2.5 -16.1
  Dec 07, 2024 38   @ New Mexico W 89-83 OT 10%     3 - 5 +20.9 +15.7 +4.7
  Dec 12, 2024 36   @ Texas L 67-91 9%     3 - 6 -8.7 +1.4 -10.2
  Dec 16, 2024 282   Southern Utah W 72-69 83%     4 - 6 -6.2 -6.0 -0.3
  Jan 02, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. W 75-71 62%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +1.6 +5.5 -3.6
  Jan 04, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech W 78-48 55%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +29.6 +16.5 +17.6
  Jan 11, 2025 139   @ UTEP W 85-57 39%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +31.7 +23.6 +10.9
  Jan 16, 2025 268   @ Florida International W 59-52 65%     8 - 6 4 - 0 +4.0 -4.9 +9.8
  Jan 18, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 60-68 19%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +1.9 -2.5 +4.0
  Jan 23, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. L 56-69 57%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -13.9 -14.6 +0.3
  Jan 25, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. L 59-65 55%     8 - 9 4 - 3 -6.5 -11.6 +4.8
  Jan 30, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee W 61-57 35%     9 - 9 5 - 3 +8.8 -3.8 +13.0
  Feb 01, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky L 69-101 38%     9 - 10 5 - 4 -28.1 -0.5 -27.4
  Feb 08, 2025 139   UTEP L 63-66 58%     9 - 11 5 - 5 -4.4 -8.3 +3.9
  Feb 13, 2025 77   Liberty L 54-64 35%     9 - 12 5 - 6 -5.2 -9.5 +3.5
  Feb 15, 2025 268   Florida International W 76-48 80%     10 - 12 6 - 6 +19.9 +8.3 +13.8
  Feb 20, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. W 61-52 36%     11 - 12 7 - 6 +13.6 +1.5 +13.8
  Feb 22, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. L 68-71 36%    
  Feb 27, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee W 69-68 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 72-70 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-67 35%    
  Mar 08, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. L 67-69 42%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 1.6 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.3 8.3 0.4 16.1 3rd
4th 3.4 14.4 1.4 19.1 4th
5th 0.1 12.6 5.2 0.0 17.9 5th
6th 0.0 5.6 13.3 0.6 19.4 6th
7th 1.2 11.8 2.8 15.8 7th
8th 3.8 2.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.5 0.5 9th
10th 10th
Total 5.5 19.8 32.2 27.6 12.4 2.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 16.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.4% 11.4% 11.4% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.1
11-7 12.4% 9.2% 9.2% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.3
10-8 27.6% 6.9% 6.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 25.7
9-9 32.2% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.0 30.0
8-10 19.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.5 0.5 0.5 18.9
7-11 5.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 2.8 0.6 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.3 3.7 63.0 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 3.2%