New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#153
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#75
Pace65.5#290
Improvement-0.1#188

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#176
First Shot-1.9#232
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#79
Layup/Dunks-7.4#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#236
Freethrows+1.6#105
Improvement+0.0#178

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#159
First Shot+3.8#73
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#333
Layups/Dunks+9.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#338
Freethrows-0.6#216
Improvement-0.1#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 10.1% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.7 12.1 12.8
.500 or above 46.7% 71.3% 42.6%
.500 or above in Conference 49.3% 64.6% 46.7%
Conference Champion 5.6% 10.3% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 5.0% 10.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round5.8% 9.9% 5.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 8
Quad 35 - 56 - 13
Quad 48 - 214 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 304   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 69%     1 - 0 +7.2 +1.7 +5.7
  Nov 14, 2024 212   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 71%     2 - 0 -4.5 +2.0 -6.5
  Nov 20, 2024 64   @ Dayton L 63-74 14%    
  Nov 23, 2024 97   @ UNLV L 66-74 22%    
  Nov 29, 2024 238   Pepperdine W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 04, 2024 209   Abilene Christian W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 07, 2024 63   @ New Mexico L 70-81 15%    
  Dec 12, 2024 31   @ Texas L 62-78 8%    
  Dec 16, 2024 205   Southern Utah W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 115   Sam Houston St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 203   @ UTEP L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 273   @ Florida International W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 60-70 19%    
  Jan 23, 2025 160   Kennesaw St. W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 184   Jacksonville St. W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 165   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 203   UTEP W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 81   Liberty L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 273   Florida International W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 160   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 165   Middle Tennessee W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 122   Western Kentucky W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 06, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-72 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 115   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-75 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 3.0 1.0 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 5.1 7.4 9.4 11.5 12.2 11.9 11.0 9.0 6.9 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 95.9% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 82.4% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 55.1% 1.7    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.5% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 51.4% 39.2% 12.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.0%
16-2 0.7% 42.3% 36.2% 6.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 9.6%
15-3 1.6% 32.1% 30.3% 1.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1 2.5%
14-4 3.0% 24.2% 23.8% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.5%
13-5 4.9% 17.4% 17.3% 0.1% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.1 0.1%
12-6 6.9% 13.2% 13.2% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.0
11-7 9.0% 8.7% 8.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.2
10-8 11.0% 6.5% 6.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 10.3
9-9 11.9% 3.9% 3.9% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.4
8-10 12.2% 2.2% 2.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.9
7-11 11.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
6-12 9.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
5-13 7.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.3
4-14 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 94.1 0.1%