New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#128
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#130
Pace65.5#255
Improvement+6.3#10

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#175
First Shot-3.3#275
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#19
Layup/Dunks-6.4#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#205
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+2.3#64

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#109
First Shot+3.8#65
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#312
Layups/Dunks+4.9#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#190
Freethrows-3.5#352
Improvement+4.0#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 13.5% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 69.7% 76.5% 51.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.5% 93.6% 78.5%
Conference Champion 29.0% 34.5% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round12.2% 13.5% 8.8%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 510 - 11
Quad 46 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 284   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 74%     1 - 0 +7.6 +1.5 +6.4
  Nov 14, 2024 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 70%     2 - 0 -2.1 +2.5 -4.7
  Nov 20, 2024 78   @ Dayton L 53-74 23%     2 - 1 -11.0 -8.7 -5.6
  Nov 23, 2024 99   @ UNLV L 65-72 30%     2 - 2 +0.7 -0.6 +0.8
  Nov 29, 2024 203   Pepperdine L 70-82 66%     2 - 3 -14.1 -7.4 -6.0
  Nov 30, 2024 285   Bowling Green L 60-61 81%     2 - 4 -8.1 -13.3 +5.1
  Dec 04, 2024 242   Abilene Christian L 70-78 81%     2 - 5 -15.2 +1.4 -17.0
  Dec 07, 2024 53   @ New Mexico W 89-83 OT 15%     3 - 5 +19.2 +14.9 +3.7
  Dec 12, 2024 38   @ Texas L 67-91 12%     3 - 6 -9.2 +1.8 -11.1
  Dec 16, 2024 240   Southern Utah W 72-69 81%     4 - 6 -4.1 -5.6 +1.4
  Jan 02, 2025 170   Sam Houston St. W 75-71 70%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +0.9 +4.0 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 120   Louisiana Tech W 78-48 59%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +29.9 +16.2 +18.3
  Jan 11, 2025 131   @ UTEP W 85-57 41%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +32.6 +23.9 +11.5
  Jan 16, 2025 241   @ Florida International W 59-52 65%     8 - 6 4 - 0 +5.4 -4.6 +10.8
  Jan 18, 2025 92   @ Liberty L 60-68 26%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +0.9 -3.5 +3.9
  Jan 23, 2025 183   Kennesaw St. W 77-71 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 162   Jacksonville St. W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 111   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky L 72-74 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 131   UTEP W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 92   Liberty L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 241   Florida International W 74-65 81%    
  Feb 20, 2025 162   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 183   @ Kennesaw St. W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 111   Middle Tennessee W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-69 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 170   @ Sam Houston St. L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 6.2 9.6 7.3 3.3 1.2 0.2 29.0 1st
2nd 0.7 6.6 8.6 3.3 0.5 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.9 8.1 2.5 0.2 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 7.5 2.3 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.8 5.3 3.0 0.2 9.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.6 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 6.3 11.8 16.4 18.4 17.2 13.2 7.8 3.3 1.2 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
15-3 100.0% 3.3    3.1 0.2
14-4 93.7% 7.3    5.9 1.3 0.1
13-5 73.0% 9.6    5.7 3.3 0.6 0.0
12-6 35.7% 6.2    1.5 2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 6.5% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 17.7 7.6 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.2% 28.2% 28.2% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.8
15-3 3.3% 20.4% 20.4% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7
14-4 7.8% 19.2% 19.2% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 6.3
13-5 13.2% 18.9% 18.9% 12.8 0.8 1.4 0.3 10.7
12-6 17.2% 14.9% 14.9% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 14.7
11-7 18.4% 11.4% 11.4% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 16.3
10-8 16.4% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 15.0
9-9 11.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 11.0
8-10 6.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.1 0.2 6.0
7-11 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 5.0 2.5 1.3 0.3 87.8 0.0%