Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#81
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#49
Pace62.6#338
Improvement+2.6#8

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#133
First Shot+1.5#127
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks+5.9#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#55
Freethrows-3.8#331
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#39
First Shot+5.6#39
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#185
Layups/Dunks-3.2#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#20
Freethrows+3.1#45
Improvement+2.6#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.8% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.5% 31.8% 23.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 3.2% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.2 11.1 11.9
.500 or above 97.6% 98.4% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 93.8% 88.3%
Conference Champion 39.2% 40.9% 28.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round29.9% 31.1% 22.8%
Second Round9.3% 10.0% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.1% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Neutral) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 3
Quad 38 - 311 - 6
Quad 410 - 121 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 276   Valparaiso W 83-63 88%     1 - 0 +14.1 +9.6 +5.2
  Nov 09, 2024 136   @ Seattle W 66-64 59%     2 - 0 +6.6 -0.1 +6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 75   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 48%     2 - 1 +4.6 -1.4 +6.1
  Nov 17, 2024 116   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 53%     3 - 1 +27.3 +2.0 +26.8
  Nov 22, 2024 244   Louisiana W 72-61 85%    
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 77-46 99.8%   
  Dec 14, 2024 272   N.C. A&T W 78-62 92%    
  Dec 21, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 02, 2025 122   Western Kentucky W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 165   Middle Tennessee W 70-60 83%    
  Jan 09, 2025 115   @ Sam Houston St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 203   UTEP W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 153   New Mexico St. W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 273   @ Florida International W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 30, 2025 160   @ Kennesaw St. W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville St. W 65-60 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 115   Sam Houston St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 153   @ New Mexico St. W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 203   @ UTEP W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 273   Florida International W 77-61 91%    
  Feb 27, 2025 184   Jacksonville St. W 68-57 84%    
  Mar 02, 2025 160   Kennesaw St. W 80-70 81%    
  Mar 06, 2025 165   @ Middle Tennessee W 67-63 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky W 71-70 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.3 8.3 10.3 8.8 4.7 1.5 39.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 5.6 7.8 5.4 2.1 0.3 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.8 5.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.4 7.9 10.5 12.7 14.5 14.1 12.5 9.1 4.7 1.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 4.7    4.7 0.1
16-2 97.0% 8.8    8.0 0.8
15-3 82.8% 10.3    7.9 2.4 0.1
14-4 59.1% 8.3    4.7 3.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 29.6% 4.3    1.4 2.0 0.8 0.1
12-6 8.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 28.4 8.9 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 87.3% 65.3% 21.9% 5.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 63.3%
17-1 4.7% 72.5% 56.0% 16.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.3 37.6%
16-2 9.1% 57.2% 50.7% 6.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.6 1.3 0.0 3.9 13.3%
15-3 12.5% 43.0% 41.1% 1.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.1 7.1 3.3%
14-4 14.1% 34.2% 33.9% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.3 0.5%
13-5 14.5% 27.8% 27.7% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 10.5 0.1%
12-6 12.7% 22.1% 22.1% 12.4 0.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 9.9
11-7 10.5% 16.3% 16.3% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.8
10-8 7.9% 12.1% 12.1% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.9
9-9 5.4% 9.3% 9.3% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.9
8-10 3.3% 6.4% 6.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1
7-11 1.9% 5.6% 5.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
6-12 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 30.5% 28.5% 2.0% 11.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.6 7.8 13.1 3.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 69.5 2.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 4.4 7.0 9.0 12.5 27.8 22.0 10.1 4.9 2.3 2.6 0.6 0.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 79.4% 7.9 1.5 4.4 10.3 11.8 4.4 7.4 14.7 11.8 13.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 63.4% 8.2 1.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.0 4.2 8.5 8.5 16.9