Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#81
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#39
Pace62.5#336
Improvement-2.1#307

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#118
First Shot+3.8#74
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#274
Layup/Dunks+4.8#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#33
Freethrows-2.8#329
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#56
First Shot+4.1#62
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks+0.0#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#22
Freethrows+2.7#32
Improvement-2.1#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 32.6% 24.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 3.0% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.7
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 94.5% 90.6%
Conference Champion 43.6% 45.1% 36.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 0.5%
First Round30.5% 31.8% 24.6%
Second Round8.5% 9.1% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.3% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 34 - 3
Quad 310 - 414 - 7
Quad 49 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 226   Valparaiso W 83-63 84%     1 - 0 +16.5 +10.1 +7.2
  Nov 09, 2024 170   @ Seattle W 66-64 67%     2 - 0 +4.4 -1.3 +5.8
  Nov 16, 2024 85   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 52%     2 - 1 +3.5 -1.7 +5.4
  Nov 17, 2024 121   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 56%     3 - 1 +26.5 +2.6 +25.4
  Nov 22, 2024 291   Louisiana W 89-69 90%     4 - 1 +13.1 +18.9 -4.3
  Nov 24, 2024 68   Kansas St. W 67-65 45%     5 - 1 +10.3 +4.9 +5.6
  Nov 25, 2024 92   McNeese St. W 62-58 53%     6 - 1 +10.1 +1.9 +8.8
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99%     7 - 1 +12.8 +13.0 +2.4
  Dec 14, 2024 321   N.C. A&T W 83-74 95%     8 - 1 -3.0 +2.1 -5.3
  Dec 21, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 77-68 82%    
  Jan 02, 2025 105   Western Kentucky W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 131   Middle Tennessee W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 09, 2025 127   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 140   UTEP W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 248   @ Florida International W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 30, 2025 162   @ Kennesaw St. W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 167   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 127   Sam Houston St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 13, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 140   @ UTEP W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 248   Florida International W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 27, 2025 167   Jacksonville St. W 72-61 83%    
  Mar 02, 2025 162   Kennesaw St. W 78-68 82%    
  Mar 06, 2025 131   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 105   @ Western Kentucky L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 7.0 10.9 11.1 7.5 3.6 0.9 43.6 1st
2nd 0.3 2.8 7.0 7.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.6 8.6 11.5 14.0 15.6 14.6 12.0 7.6 3.6 0.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.6 0.0
16-2 98.6% 7.5    7.2 0.3
15-3 92.7% 11.1    9.5 1.6 0.0
14-4 74.9% 10.9    7.4 3.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 45.2% 7.0    3.1 3.1 0.8 0.0
12-6 15.9% 2.2    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.6% 43.6 32.1 9.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 85.3% 61.1% 24.3% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 62.4%
17-1 3.6% 70.7% 55.4% 15.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.1 34.3%
16-2 7.6% 55.0% 47.4% 7.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 3.4 14.4%
15-3 12.0% 44.3% 41.7% 2.6% 11.4 0.0 0.2 2.9 2.2 0.0 6.7 4.5%
14-4 14.6% 36.4% 35.8% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.2 0.0 9.3 1.0%
13-5 15.6% 30.9% 30.8% 0.1% 11.9 0.9 3.7 0.2 0.0 10.8 0.2%
12-6 14.0% 24.5% 24.5% 12.0 0.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.6
11-7 11.5% 18.7% 18.7% 12.1 0.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.3
10-8 8.6% 16.5% 16.5% 12.3 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.2
9-9 5.6% 14.1% 14.1% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.8
8-10 3.3% 10.2% 10.2% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.9
7-11 1.7% 4.6% 4.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.8% 2.8% 2.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.2% 29.4% 1.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 9.5 16.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 68.9 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 5.4 0.4 2.0 6.5 23.9 25.1 21.9 9.7 2.4 4.5 3.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 72.7% 8.3 4.5 6.1 15.2 15.2 12.1 10.6 7.6 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 69.4% 9.3 3.2 1.6 4.8 4.8 21.0 14.5 16.1 3.2