Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#164
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#294
Pace75.2#52
Improvement-0.4#226

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#103
First Shot+6.8#27
After Offensive Rebound-4.2#352
Layup/Dunks+0.2#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#13
Freethrows-1.6#260
Improvement-0.5#259

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#271
First Shot+0.4#169
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#332
Layups/Dunks-3.2#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#72
Freethrows-4.4#350
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 13.1% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 43.8% 60.7% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 73.9% 62.0%
Conference Champion 10.8% 14.5% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 2.9% 5.6%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round9.7% 13.0% 8.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Neutral) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 49 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 87   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 36%     0 - 1 -11.6 +9.3 -21.7
  Nov 13, 2024 78   @ USC L 95-98 16%     0 - 2 +7.3 +14.1 -6.4
  Nov 19, 2024 162   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 38%     0 - 3 -7.2 -1.9 -5.2
  Nov 25, 2024 109   Murray St. L 73-78 34%    
  Nov 27, 2024 231   Austin Peay W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 28, 2024 117   Rhode Island L 80-84 37%    
  Dec 02, 2024 324   @ Louisiana Monroe W 79-73 70%    
  Dec 12, 2024 112   @ Arkansas St. L 74-81 25%    
  Dec 14, 2024 324   Louisiana Monroe W 82-70 85%    
  Dec 18, 2024 300   Evansville W 84-74 82%    
  Dec 21, 2024 81   @ Liberty L 67-77 17%    
  Dec 29, 2024 166   @ Texas St. L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Tarleton St. W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 09, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 82-78 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 205   @ Southern Utah L 81-82 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 137   Utah Valley W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 23, 2025 136   Seattle W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 209   @ Abilene Christian L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 205   Southern Utah W 84-79 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 85-75 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 137   @ Utah Valley L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 136   @ Seattle L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 181   California Baptist W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 317   Tarleton St. W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 75-84 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 209   Abilene Christian W 80-75 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 181   @ California Baptist L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.3 6.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.8 2.6 0.3 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.2 2.1 0.2 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.1 5.0 1.7 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.4 9.0 11.9 13.5 13.9 12.9 10.6 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
14-2 93.9% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
13-3 72.8% 3.2    2.0 1.1 0.1
12-4 38.7% 2.9    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
11-5 12.3% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
10-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 6.2 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 56.0% 56.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.8% 50.7% 50.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-2 2.2% 40.5% 40.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3
13-3 4.5% 33.2% 33.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0
12-4 7.5% 25.2% 25.2% 13.7 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.6
11-5 10.6% 18.0% 18.0% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 8.7
10-6 12.9% 11.4% 11.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 11.4
9-7 13.9% 6.6% 6.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 13.0
8-8 13.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 13.0
7-9 11.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.7
6-10 9.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.9
5-11 6.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.3
4-12 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-13 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.3 90.1 0.0%