Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#205
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#223
Pace69.2#147
Improvement-0.5#215

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#156
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#105
Layup/Dunks-3.7#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#49
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement-1.8#274

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#263
First Shot+0.0#187
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#353
Layups/Dunks-0.5#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows-2.1#317
Improvement+1.3#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.0% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 4.1% 5.3% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 28.3% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round2.2% 2.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 49 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 123   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 42%     0 - 1 -15.4 +7.4 -23.6
  Nov 13, 2024 59   @ USC L 95-98 9%     0 - 2 +9.7 +15.6 -5.6
  Nov 19, 2024 219   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 43%     0 - 3 -10.6 -3.9 -6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 156   Murray St. L 66-79 39%     0 - 4 -12.5 -7.2 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2024 276   Austin Peay W 68-58 65%     1 - 4 +3.5 +0.5 +4.2
  Nov 28, 2024 121   Rhode Island L 78-83 33%     1 - 5 -2.7 +2.8 -5.3
  Dec 02, 2024 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 84-70 74%     2 - 5 +5.1 +5.1 -0.6
  Dec 12, 2024 97   @ Arkansas St. L 79-83 18%     2 - 6 +3.5 +10.0 -6.4
  Dec 14, 2024 336   Louisiana Monroe W 77-68 86%     3 - 6 -5.0 -0.1 -4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 237   Evansville W 80-54 66%     4 - 6 +19.4 +11.3 +9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 77   @ Liberty L 56-79 13%     4 - 7 -13.1 -7.7 -6.1
  Dec 29, 2024 202   @ Texas St. W 80-72 40%     5 - 7 +8.3 +8.4 +0.2
  Jan 04, 2025 273   @ Tarleton St. L 74-77 55%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -6.8 +4.6 -11.4
  Jan 09, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech L 62-74 58%     5 - 9 0 - 2 -16.5 -12.2 -4.7
  Jan 11, 2025 282   @ Southern Utah L 68-73 57%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -9.1 -6.2 -2.8
  Jan 16, 2025 125   Utah Valley L 83-85 OT 43%     5 - 11 0 - 4 -2.5 +3.8 -6.1
  Jan 23, 2025 165   Seattle W 65-56 52%     6 - 11 1 - 4 +6.2 +2.6 +5.1
  Jan 25, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian W 79-76 OT 41%     7 - 11 2 - 4 +2.9 +8.8 -5.9
  Jan 30, 2025 282   Southern Utah W 70-68 74%     8 - 11 3 - 4 -7.2 +0.9 -7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 73-71 75%     9 - 11 4 - 4 -7.6 +5.7 -13.0
  Feb 06, 2025 125   @ Utah Valley L 73-94 25%     9 - 12 4 - 5 -16.4 +5.1 -21.7
  Feb 08, 2025 165   @ Seattle L 65-67 32%     9 - 13 4 - 6 +0.3 -1.3 +1.5
  Feb 13, 2025 158   California Baptist W 82-79 OT 50%     10 - 13 5 - 6 +0.7 +0.5 -0.1
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 75-82 29%     10 - 14 5 - 7 -3.7 +4.0 -7.5
  Feb 22, 2025 273   Tarleton St. W 72-66 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 72-83 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 74-71 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 71-76 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.2 2.3 9.7 3rd
4th 8.4 9.7 0.2 18.3 4th
5th 2.0 19.9 2.1 24.0 5th
6th 0.2 11.4 11.9 0.1 23.6 6th
7th 6.2 16.6 1.2 24.0 7th
8th 0.3 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 9th
Total 6.7 30.1 41.6 19.1 2.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 2.5% 7.1% 7.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
8-8 19.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 18.2
7-9 41.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.2 0.8 40.6
6-10 30.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 29.6
5-11 6.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.6
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 3.8%