Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#201
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#271
Pace73.5#63
Improvement-1.4#243

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#159
First Shot-0.6#196
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#106
Layup/Dunks-3.8#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#48
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement-3.2#333

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#254
First Shot+0.4#166
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#348
Layups/Dunks-0.3#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows-2.0#314
Improvement+1.8#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.0% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 7.6% 12.0% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 18.7% 28.3% 8.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.0% 16.0% 34.2%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round2.7% 3.6% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 48 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 43%     0 - 1 -15.1 +7.1 -22.9
  Nov 13, 2024 61   @ USC L 95-98 11%     0 - 2 +8.8 +16.0 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2024 244   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 50%     0 - 3 -11.8 -5.7 -6.0
  Nov 26, 2024 142   Murray St. L 66-79 37%     0 - 4 -11.5 -7.3 -3.9
  Nov 27, 2024 298   Austin Peay W 68-58 71%     1 - 4 +2.3 +1.7 +1.7
  Nov 28, 2024 109   Rhode Island L 78-83 30%     1 - 5 -1.6 +3.6 -5.0
  Dec 02, 2024 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 84-70 76%     2 - 5 +4.7 +4.7 -0.5
  Dec 12, 2024 100   @ Arkansas St. L 79-83 19%     2 - 6 +3.5 +8.9 -5.3
  Dec 14, 2024 347   Louisiana Monroe W 77-68 88%     3 - 6 -5.8 -0.7 -4.9
  Dec 18, 2024 261   Evansville W 80-54 73%     4 - 6 +17.6 +11.9 +7.3
  Dec 21, 2024 92   @ Liberty L 56-79 16%     4 - 7 -14.1 -8.7 -6.2
  Dec 29, 2024 167   @ Texas St. W 80-72 34%     5 - 7 +10.5 +9.4 +1.4
  Jan 04, 2025 262   @ Tarleton St. L 74-77 54%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -5.9 +3.9 -9.8
  Jan 09, 2025 284   @ Utah Tech L 62-74 60%     5 - 9 0 - 2 -16.4 -10.8 -6.0
  Jan 11, 2025 240   @ Southern Utah L 68-73 49%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -6.6 -5.6 -0.9
  Jan 16, 2025 140   Utah Valley L 83-85 OT 48%     5 - 11 0 - 4 -3.2 +4.0 -7.0
  Jan 23, 2025 150   Seattle L 74-75 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 240   Southern Utah W 81-76 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 284   Utah Tech W 81-73 78%    
  Feb 06, 2025 140   @ Utah Valley L 72-78 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 150   @ Seattle L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 13, 2025 172   California Baptist W 75-74 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 83   Grand Canyon L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 262   Tarleton St. W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 83   @ Grand Canyon L 74-85 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 76-71 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 172   @ California Baptist L 72-76 35%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 5.1 2.0 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 2.7 8.5 4.4 0.5 16.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 9.7 5.5 0.3 17.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 10.1 6.7 0.8 19.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.2 6.5 1.2 17.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 13.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.2 13.5 19.7 20.5 17.0 11.0 5.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 23.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.4% 17.9% 17.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-6 1.9% 14.5% 14.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
9-7 5.3% 8.2% 8.2% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.9
8-8 11.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.3
7-9 17.0% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.2 0.6 16.2
6-10 20.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 20.0
5-11 19.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 19.4
4-12 13.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
3-13 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
2-14 2.8% 2.8
1-15 0.6% 0.6
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 97.0 0.0%