Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.2 179
Results Rating -0.5 163
Consistency 0.13 63
Pace 64.7 281
Improvement -3.0 289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 298 D C+ F+ B- C+
Defense B- 82 B C C D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 26 D- 51% 331 +0.4 165
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 61 C+ 40% 119 +0.2 164
Three Pointers 35% 303 D- 29% 338 -5.5 339
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 114 D- -5.2 344
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 329
Second Chance B 35.0% 53 D+ 0.95 303 C+ 0.33 126
Opponents' Steals D 10.9% 309
Other Turnovers F 9.6% 356
Turnovers F+ 20.5% 350
Freethrows B 0.34 61 C- 71% 226 B- 0.25 88
Total Offense D+ -4.7 298

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 208 C- 12.2% 257
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 91 C 5.5% 226
Three Pointers B+ 91% 27 C 1.0% 217
Total C 55% 192 D 6.9% 318


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 204 C 58% 184 -0.2 166
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 23 C 38% 174 +2.7 349
Three Pointers 34% 347 A 29% 9 -6.2 1
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -0.9 38 B- -2.8 69
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 54
Second Chance C+ 28.5% 105 D 1.11 293 C 0.32 211
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.9% 150
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 236
Turnovers C 16.8% 176
Freethrows D- 0.36 325 C+ 72% 141 D 0.26 318
Total Defense B- +3.5 82

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 328 C- 9.7% 217
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 271 C 5.3% 127
Three Pointers B- 80% 75 C 1.0% 129
Total C 55% 167 C 5.5% 175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 342 16.6 60
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 157 0.24 351
Consistency 0.11 52 0.14 319
Improvement -1.1 247 -1.9 282

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 207 179 157
Results Rating Rank 216 167 142
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 9 - 9
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 8% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 57% 81% 34%
.500 or above in Conference 24% 51% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round7% 8% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 56 - 11
Quad 49 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 53 @New Mexico L 56 - 74 9% -12  4% 0 - 1 C- -4 F -14 F B F A +10 B A B-
 Sat, Nov 15 205 Missouri St. W 67 - 49 66% +7  67% 1 - 1 B+ +13 F+ -10 C D- F A+ +23 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 295 @Evansville W 84 - 76 64% +3  68% 2 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 A+ A+ F D -5 B- F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 185 Campbell L 67 - 71 52% +4  82% 2 - 2 D+ -6 F -14 F D+ D- A- +8 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 211 @Weber St. W 74 - 73 45% +0  47% 3 - 2 C +1 C +0 C- C- D C+ +1 B- F C
 Sat, Nov 29 101 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 61 38% -3  23% 4 - 2 B- +7 C +1 C C- F B+ +7 B+ C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 147 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 83 31% -10  14% 4 - 3 F+ -16 F -13 F A- D+ C- -2 D+ A C-
 Thu, Dec 11 143 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 58 - 50 30% +0  54% 5 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -3 D B F A+ +17 A A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 60 @Stanford L 60 - 76 11% -12  3% 5 - 4 C- -4 D- -8 C- F D+ B- +3 C C B+
 Mon, Dec 22 315 @Oral Roberts W 69 - 57 69% +6  92% 6 - 4 B- +6 D -6 D+ B F A+ +12 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 220 Tarleton St. L 63 - 69 70% -6  3% 6 - 5 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -9 F C- F D+ -4 C- D+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 134 California Baptist W 63 - 51 50% +4  81% 7 - 5 1 - 1 B +11 D+ -4 F B C- A+ +16 B A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 261 @Southern Utah W 86 - 77 56% +1  48% 8 - 5 2 - 1 B- +6 B +6 A- D F C+ +0 C- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 236 Abilene Christian W 82 - 72 71% +6  91% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +3 A- +11 D+ A+ B+ D- -8 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 195 @Utah Tech W 56 - 52 42% +5  84% 10 - 5 4 - 1 C+ +5 F -18 F F F A+ +23 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 97 @Utah Valley L 74 - 86 18% -14  0% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 F+ A+ C- F+ -9 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 21 220 Tarleton St. W 71 - 64 70% +1  45% 11 - 6 5 - 2 C +0 D+ -2 D C- B- B- +3 C+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 261 Southern Utah W 80 - 61 76% +14  96% 12 - 6 6 - 2 B +10 C -0 D+ B F+ A +11 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 134 California Baptist L 77 - 87 OT 50% -5  0% 12 - 7 6 - 3 D -11 D+ -4 D C- D+ D -6 D+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 195 @Utah Tech L 84 - 87 2OT 42% -1  36% 12 - 8 6 - 4 C- -2 C +1 F+ A A C- -3 C F F
 Sat, Feb 7 97 @Utah Valley L 60 - 81 18% -9  16% 12 - 9 6 - 5 D- -12 C+ +2 A- D F F -18 F F D-
 Thu, Feb 12 236 @Abilene Christian L 63 - 67 50% -2  28% 12 - 10 6 - 6 D+ -5 D- -7 B+ D+ F B- +2 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 261 Southern Utah L 73 - 78 76% -3  9% 12 - 11 6 - 7 D- -14 D- -7 D- D C+ D- -7 F D+ B+
 Thu, Feb 19 195 Utah Tech W 63 - 50 65% +6  89% 13 - 11 7 - 7 B- +8 D- -7 F A F A+ +17 A+ A B-
 Sat, Feb 21 97 Utah Valley L 54 - 66 36% +0  54% 13 - 12 7 - 8 D -9 F -16 F+ F F B+ +6 A+ F+ D
 Thu, Feb 26 134 @California Baptist L 56 - 68 28% -7  11% 13 - 13 7 - 9 D+ -7 D- -8 F B- C+ C -1 D C D-
 Thu, Mar 5 220 @Tarleton St. L 67 - 68 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 236 @Abilene Christian L 64 - 65 49%
Totals 14 - 14 8 - 10 -1 D+ -5 A+ D- C+ B- +3 D- C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C+ D- D- 45% 49% 35% C+ D B D+ C+ F+ B C- B- B- C C A B- 38% 28% 34% B+ B C+ D C C D- C+ D
1.02 51% 40% 29% -5 0 0.92 35% 0.9 .33 20% .34 71% .25 1.04 58% 38% 29% -3 -1 0.95 28% 1.1 .32 17% .36 72% .25
Nov
8		 New Mexico F C A F F 34% 15% 51% B F A+ F B F A+ C- A+ A D F A+ B+ 45% 8% 47% D B B A+ A B- F F F
0.78 57% 50% 14% -14 0 0.76 40% 0.8 .31 32% .49 71% .35 1.03 64% 50% 26% -2 +2 1.02 27% 0.7 .18 17% .45 81% .37
Nov
15		 Missouri St. F+ D- C+ A C- 44% 31% 25% B C A- F D- F D F F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 57% 18% 25% F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F C F
0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11 0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31
Nov
18		 Evansville B+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 28% 38% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+ D D- A+ A- B 35% 26% 39% C- B- D- F F C- F B- F
1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42 1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39
Nov
21		 Campbell F F F C- F 56% 21% 23% B F C- D+ D+ D- B F C A- C C+ A+ B 51% 20% 29% B- B C F F A+ F A+ F
0.91 48% 9% 33% -12 +1 0.81 30% 1.1 .33 20% .34 65% .22 0.97 57% 33% 23% -6 +1 0.91 34% 1.4 .47 23% .57 59% .34
Nov
22		 Weber St. C C+ F D+ D+ 58% 12% 31% A C- C- C+ C- D F A+ F+ C+ D- B A- C+ 40% 26% 34% A B- A F F C B- F D
1.11 63% 17% 31% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 18% .22 83% .18 1.10 65% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.7 .41 17% .31 88% .27
Nov
29		 Stephen F. Austin C F A+ A+ D+ 59% 15% 26% A C A+ F C- F A+ A- A+ B+ B+ D+ A B+ 41% 37% 22% B B+ C- B C+ B+ A F B+
1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41 0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12
Dec
2		 Arkansas St. F F+ F F F 45% 27% 29% C F A- B A- D+ A+ F B C- F D A+ D- 40% 28% 32% A D+ C- A+ A C- F C+ F
0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26 1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36
Dec
11		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ C+ B F D 30% 16% 53% C D A- C+ B F F B- F A+ C+ A+ B A+ 36% 20% 43% B- A A+ C+ A B- C- B- C
1.00 62% 43% 26% -5 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18 0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17
Dec
17		 Stanford D- D+ D D+ D+ 46% 22% 32% B C- F F F D+ A+ F A+ B- F+ A+ B+ C+ 57% 14% 30% D+ C A F C B+ F D- F
0.89 53% 33% 31% -5 0 0.93 14% 0.8 .10 21% .54 69% .37 1.13 68% 17% 31% +1 +2 1.09 27% 1.3 .35 18% .58 78% .45
Dec
22		 Oral Roberts D F F A+ D- 57% 2% 41% A D+ D+ A+ B F B D- C+ A+ B- B A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A+ D- A C+ B F F F
1.03 40% 0% 44% -5 +4 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 21% .38 65% .24 0.85 50% 33% 12% -16 +1 0.71 32% 0.8 .24 21% .47 84% .39
Dec
29		 Tarleton St. F+ F C- C- F 39% 21% 39% C- F C D+ C- F A+ C- A+ D+ D C C D 35% 39% 26% A+ C- A+ F D+ F F A+ B-
0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42 1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22
Jan
1		 California Baptist D+ F F D- F 38% 29% 33% D F A- C B C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B- A+ C 33% 40% 28% A+ B A+ C+ A A+ C C+ C
0.99 44% 25% 29% -12 -1 0.76 34% 0.9 .31 16% .43 87% .37 0.80 57% 35% 25% -5 -3 0.86 25% 0.9 .21 27% .30 71% .21
Jan
3		 Southern Utah B D- B+ A+ A- 41% 22% 37% C A- D- C+ D F A+ B+ A+ C+ F A- A+ C 47% 22% 31% D+ C- A- F+ C+ C F D- F
1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32 1.06 71% 27% 25% -1 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27
Jan
10		 Abilene Christian A- D B+ A+ D+ 52% 26% 21% D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ F+ F F 28% 46% 26% A+ F A F D- D F A- F
1.24 55% 45% 44% +3 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47 1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39
Jan
15		 Utah Tech F F D+ F F 62% 13% 26% A F C+ F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 23% 26% C- A+ D B- C- F F+ A+ C+
0.83 41% 33% 25% -14 +3 0.79 33% 0.5 .15 24% .41 81% .33 0.77 44% 17% 7% -22 +1 0.58 32% 0.9 .28 12% .30 50% .15
Jan
17		 Utah Valley B- D+ F+ F F 41% 22% 37% C F+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B A+ F+ D+ D+ B C- 44% 30% 26% A+ C+ F F F F F A F
1.07 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.83 42% 1.4 .58 22% .48 77% .37 1.24 64% 40% 31% +2 -1 1.04 45% 1.6 .73 16% .48 61% .29
Jan
21		 Tarleton St. D+ C- A+ F F+ 49% 8% 44% A D D+ C+ C- B- A+ D- A+ B- D B A+ C+ 52% 34% 14% C C+ D A+ A- A+ F+ F F
1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45 0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36
Jan
29		 Southern Utah C C- F B+ D- 53% 18% 29% B+ D+ A+ F B F+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ F+ A A 27% 43% 31% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D F A- F
1.14 56% 22% 40% -2 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27 0.87 31% 43% 27% -9 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29
Jan
31		 California Baptist D+ F A- F+ D 32% 25% 42% D D A- F C- D+ C+ A B D C- D+ C D- 36% 34% 30% A+ D+ A+ F D+ F F B- F
0.99 42% 47% 28% -7 -1 0.86 34% 0.7 .23 17% .32 81% .26 1.11 56% 41% 33% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 13% .53 69% .37
Feb
5		 Utah Tech C D- B F F 46% 18% 36% C+ F+ C A+ A A F F F C- B D+ D- C+ 48% 21% 31% D+ C D- F F F F+ B- D-
1.10 55% 42% 21% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.4 .47 10% .16 64% .10 1.14 54% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.2 .39 12% .30 70% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Utah Valley C+ C A+ F A- 55% 24% 21% C+ A- B+ F D F A+ D- A+ F A F F F 37% 12% 51% B F D- F+ F D- F F F
1.02 56% 88% 14% +4 +1 1.12 36% 0.6 .23 25% .64 68% .43 1.38 47% 60% 52% +13 +1 1.29 42% 1.2 .50 17% .45 91% .41
Feb
12		 Abilene Christian D- B+ A+ B+ B+ 63% 23% 14% B- B+ F+ A- D+ F A- F+ C+ B- A- A+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% B- A+ C- F F+ F+ D+ D D
0.94 68% 50% 40% +10 +1 1.26 19% 1.3 .24 33% .51 65% .33 1.00 47% 23% 25% -13 -1 0.75 33% 1.1 .38 16% .36 75% .27
Feb
14		 Southern Utah D- F A+ C F+ 45% 26% 30% C- D- C- D- D C+ A+ C- A+ D- D+ F D F 36% 29% 36% A- F F+ B D+ B+ F B- F
1.05 38% 58% 36% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.8 .24 13% .48 69% .33 1.12 63% 69% 38% +12 -1 1.24 36% 0.9 .32 23% .43 70% .30
Feb
19		 Utah Tech D- A F F F 49% 21% 30% C F A C+ A F C F D- A+ A- F+ A+ A+ 13% 33% 54% A+ A+ A A+ A B- C- F D
1.03 74% 0% 14% -9 +1 0.85 43% 1.1 .46 20% .28 57% .16 0.82 50% 47% 20% -10 -3 0.76 20% 0.7 .14 18% .24 83% .20
Feb
21		 Utah Valley F D- F+ F F 46% 22% 33% C F+ C+ F F F A+ F A+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ 60% 18% 22% C- A+ F B+ F+ D F A D
0.81 48% 30% 27% -10 0 0.83 31% 0.5 .14 26% .54 59% .32 0.99 48% 25% 10% -16 +2 0.73 51% 0.9 .47 18% .40 59% .24
Feb
26		 California Baptist D- F A+ F F 45% 27% 27% C- F B C B- C+ C- D D+ C B- C- F F 33% 31% 35% A+ D A+ F C D- A C A
0.89 35% 50% 7% -18 0 0.65 32% 0.9 .29 14% .30 69% .20 1.08 50% 40% 41% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 14% .20 73% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 25.3 48.4 24.1 97.7 4th
5th 2.3 2.3 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 27.6 48.4 24.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 24.1% 8.7% 8.7% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 22.0
8-10 48.4% 7.9% 7.9% 14.8 0.1 0.7 2.8 0.2 44.5
7-11 27.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.6 1.0 26.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 14.8 92.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 13.9 0.5 21.4 61.4 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.7%
Lose Out 10.4%