Preseason Rankings
Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#228
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#112
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#258
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#186
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 4.5% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.6 13.5
.500 or above 25.9% 50.4% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 45.7% 27.3%
Conference Champion 1.9% 4.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 20.7% 10.1% 21.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 4.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 10.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 48 - 412 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 86   @ North Texas L 57-70 10%    
  Nov 13, 2024 197   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-70 33%    
  Nov 16, 2024 269   Radford W 70-65 67%    
  Nov 19, 2024 31   @ Ohio St. L 62-80 5%    
  Nov 22, 2024 310   Green Bay W 71-63 74%    
  Nov 24, 2024 301   Campbell W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 03, 2024 136   @ Murray St. L 64-72 25%    
  Dec 07, 2024 115   Western Kentucky L 77-81 38%    
  Dec 12, 2024 147   Chattanooga L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 18, 2024 145   @ Texas Arlington L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 21, 2024 240   @ Ball St. L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 29, 2024 207   Missouri St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 01, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 63-70 26%    
  Jan 04, 2025 132   Indiana St. L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 08, 2025 193   Illinois St. W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 106   @ Drake L 66-77 18%    
  Jan 14, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 65-75 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 144   Belmont L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 22, 2025 203   Illinois-Chicago W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 242   @ Valparaiso L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 136   Murray St. L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 02, 2025 144   @ Belmont L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 140   Southern Illinois L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 92   Bradley L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 16, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 132   @ Indiana St. L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 203   @ Illinois-Chicago L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 106   Drake L 69-74 35%    
  Mar 02, 2025 193   @ Illinois St. L 64-69 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 12.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.0 4.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.9 11th
12th 0.6 1.8 3.2 4.0 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 14.3 12th
Total 0.6 1.8 3.6 5.8 8.0 9.6 10.6 10.9 10.5 9.3 8.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 99.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 83.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 53.7% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 35.9% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 58.3% 37.5% 20.8% 7.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
19-1 0.0% 54.2% 30.1% 24.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.5%
18-2 0.2% 37.8% 36.6% 1.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9%
17-3 0.4% 26.8% 23.4% 3.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.4%
16-4 0.8% 17.7% 17.7% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
15-5 1.6% 14.6% 14.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.0%
14-6 2.5% 10.0% 10.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
13-7 3.7% 7.4% 7.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.5
12-8 5.2% 6.0% 6.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9
11-9 6.7% 2.6% 2.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5
10-10 8.1% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.0
9-11 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
8-12 10.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-13 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.8
6-14 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-15 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
4-16 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-17 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
2-18 3.6% 3.6
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%