Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#237
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#221
Pace66.5#225
Improvement+4.7#26

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#300
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#358
Layup/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows-1.3#272
Improvement+2.7#58

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#160
First Shot+0.2#180
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#144
Layups/Dunks-0.5#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#174
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement+2.1#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 38.9% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 36 - 76 - 15
Quad 45 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 71   @ North Texas L 63-80 9%     0 - 1 -6.5 +3.4 -11.5
  Nov 13, 2024 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-80 20%     0 - 2 -12.2 -10.2 -1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 177   Radford L 81-92 48%     0 - 3 -14.5 +13.2 -28.8
  Nov 19, 2024 33   @ Ohio St. L 30-80 4%     0 - 4 -33.8 -33.8 -1.8
  Nov 22, 2024 337   Green Bay W 98-81 83%     1 - 4 +3.0 +4.4 -3.7
  Nov 24, 2024 183   Campbell W 66-53 49%     2 - 4 +9.2 -2.3 +12.3
  Dec 03, 2024 156   @ Murray St. L 61-63 25%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +1.0 -4.4 +5.2
  Dec 07, 2024 135   Western Kentucky L 65-79 39%     2 - 6 -15.2 -7.6 -7.4
  Dec 12, 2024 119   Chattanooga L 67-75 34%     2 - 7 -7.8 -6.1 -2.2
  Dec 18, 2024 205   @ Texas Arlington L 54-80 34%     2 - 8 -25.8 -17.4 -10.0
  Dec 21, 2024 261   @ Ball St. L 43-80 46%     2 - 9 -39.9 -29.7 -13.5
  Dec 29, 2024 219   Missouri St. W 57-40 56%     3 - 9 1 - 1 +11.3 -9.4 +22.9
  Jan 01, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois W 68-53 29%     4 - 9 2 - 1 +16.5 -0.4 +17.5
  Jan 04, 2025 203   Indiana St. L 62-66 53%     4 - 10 2 - 2 -8.8 -14.1 +5.2
  Jan 08, 2025 127   Illinois St. W 69-51 37%     5 - 10 3 - 2 +17.2 +1.0 +18.6
  Jan 11, 2025 74   @ Drake L 40-63 10%     5 - 11 3 - 3 -12.7 -18.9 +0.9
  Jan 14, 2025 100   @ Northern Iowa L 56-73 15%     5 - 12 3 - 4 -9.9 -14.8 +5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 140   Belmont L 82-85 40%     5 - 13 3 - 5 -4.4 +5.2 -9.6
  Jan 22, 2025 147   Illinois-Chicago L 67-78 41%     5 - 14 3 - 6 -12.8 -3.5 -10.0
  Jan 25, 2025 238   @ Valparaiso W 78-68 41%     6 - 14 4 - 6 +8.4 -1.0 +8.8
  Jan 29, 2025 156   Murray St. W 78-74 42%     7 - 14 5 - 6 +1.9 +14.4 -12.0
  Feb 02, 2025 140   @ Belmont W 80-75 23%     8 - 14 6 - 6 +8.7 +9.8 -0.8
  Feb 05, 2025 179   Southern Illinois L 59-68 48%     8 - 15 6 - 7 -12.5 -8.7 -4.8
  Feb 08, 2025 94   Bradley L 74-80 26%     8 - 16 6 - 8 -3.4 +0.2 -3.5
  Feb 12, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. L 54-71 37%     8 - 17 6 - 9 -17.6 -9.7 -10.3
  Feb 16, 2025 238   Valparaiso W 79-69 60%     9 - 17 7 - 9 +3.3 +4.4 -0.7
  Feb 19, 2025 203   @ Indiana St. W 79-74 33%     10 - 17 8 - 9 +5.3 +5.6 -0.1
  Feb 22, 2025 147   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-75 23%    
  Feb 26, 2025 74   Drake L 57-66 21%    
  Mar 02, 2025 127   @ Illinois St. L 66-74 21%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.4 0.4 0.8 4th
5th 1.7 8.4 0.9 11.0 5th
6th 11.7 2.1 13.8 6th
7th 0.2 17.3 0.1 17.5 7th
8th 16.2 7.3 23.5 8th
9th 28.8 0.5 29.4 9th
10th 4.0 4.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 49.2 38.5 11.0 1.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 1.3
10-10 11.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.9
9-11 38.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 38.4
8-12 49.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 49.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 31.8%