Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#261
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#270
Pace67.2#222
Improvement+3.0#53

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#342
First Shot-2.3#238
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#358
Layup/Dunks-0.6#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows-1.7#286
Improvement-3.0#328

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#134
First Shot+0.8#155
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#140
Layups/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#161
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement+6.0#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.0% 10.2% 2.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.4% 8.0% 20.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 8
Quad 34 - 94 - 17
Quad 45 - 59 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 65   @ North Texas L 63-80 7%     0 - 1 -5.8 +2.9 -10.3
  Nov 13, 2024 111   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-80 14%     0 - 2 -11.1 -8.9 -1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 205   Radford L 81-92 47%     0 - 3 -15.9 +13.2 -30.2
  Nov 19, 2024 36   @ Ohio St. L 30-80 4%     0 - 4 -34.7 -34.1 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 332   Green Bay W 98-81 79%     1 - 4 +3.0 +3.5 -2.8
  Nov 24, 2024 250   Campbell W 66-53 58%     2 - 4 +5.2 -4.7 +10.7
  Dec 03, 2024 141   @ Murray St. L 61-63 18%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +2.2 -4.4 +6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 134   Western Kentucky L 65-79 33%     2 - 6 -15.0 -6.1 -8.6
  Dec 12, 2024 157   Chattanooga L 67-75 37%     2 - 7 -10.3 -7.3 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2024 201   @ Texas Arlington L 54-80 27%     2 - 8 -25.2 -16.7 -10.0
  Dec 21, 2024 249   @ Ball St. L 43-80 37%     2 - 9 -39.2 -28.6 -13.9
  Dec 29, 2024 245   Missouri St. W 57-40 56%     3 - 9 1 - 1 +9.7 -11.4 +23.3
  Jan 01, 2025 190   @ Southern Illinois W 68-53 25%     4 - 9 2 - 1 +16.4 +0.0 +17.1
  Jan 04, 2025 213   Indiana St. L 62-66 50%     4 - 10 2 - 2 -9.5 -14.8 +5.3
  Jan 08, 2025 144   Illinois St. W 69-51 34%     5 - 10 3 - 2 +16.6 +1.4 +17.6
  Jan 11, 2025 80   @ Drake L 40-63 8%     5 - 11 3 - 3 -13.1 -18.0 -0.4
  Jan 14, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 56-73 15%     5 - 12 3 - 4 -11.3 -16.9 +5.9
  Jan 18, 2025 139   Belmont L 82-85 33%     5 - 13 3 - 5 -4.2 +7.1 -11.4
  Jan 22, 2025 142   Illinois-Chicago L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 214   @ Valparaiso L 66-71 29%    
  Jan 29, 2025 141   Murray St. L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 02, 2025 139   @ Belmont L 69-79 16%    
  Feb 05, 2025 190   Southern Illinois L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 74   Bradley L 61-72 17%    
  Feb 12, 2025 245   @ Missouri St. L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 16, 2025 214   Valparaiso L 68-69 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 213   @ Indiana St. L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 142   @ Illinois-Chicago L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 26, 2025 80   Drake L 55-65 18%    
  Mar 02, 2025 144   @ Illinois St. L 62-72 17%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 3.1 0.8 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 6.2 2.1 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 8.0 5.0 0.3 16.0 9th
10th 0.3 3.7 10.5 7.4 1.0 0.0 22.8 10th
11th 1.1 6.0 12.6 8.9 1.5 0.0 30.2 11th
12th 1.8 3.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.0 12th
Total 2.9 9.8 18.5 22.7 19.4 14.3 7.3 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 3.5% 3.5
9-11 7.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.3
8-12 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-13 19.4% 19.4
6-14 22.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.7
5-15 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
4-16 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.5%