Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#279
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#268
Pace66.9#258
Improvement-1.1#273

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#322
First Shot-4.9#305
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#218
Layup/Dunks-2.1#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#354
Freethrows+2.6#55
Improvement-2.1#337

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#198
First Shot-1.2#213
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#171
Layups/Dunks+4.7#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#237
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement+1.0#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.5
.500 or above 0.7% 2.3% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.3% 7.7% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 53.1% 42.2% 54.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 12.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 61 - 9
Quad 33 - 104 - 19
Quad 44 - 47 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 2 @Purdue L 51-82 1%     0 - 1 -5.8 -5.9 -4.0
  Wed, Nov 12 138 Middle Tennessee L 72-77 31%     0 - 2 -6.4 -3.3 -3.0
  Tue, Nov 18 190 Texas Arlington L 76-84 44%     0 - 3 -13.1 +4.0 -17.3
  Fri, Nov 21 163 Oregon St. W 73-69 28%     1 - 3 +3.4 +1.7 +1.8
  Sun, Nov 23 54 Akron L 59-97 7%     1 - 4 -28.4 -13.5 -15.0
  Mon, Nov 24 180 College of Charleston L 59-78 31%     1 - 5 -20.4 -15.7 -4.6
  Wed, Dec 3 316 Ball St. W 64-52 68%     2 - 5 +0.5 -10.8 +11.9
  Sat, Dec 6 123 @Western Kentucky L 67-79 12%    
  Sat, Dec 13 56 @Notre Dame L 58-77 4%    
  Tue, Dec 16 88 Belmont L 68-77 19%    
  Sun, Dec 21 128 Drake L 63-69 29%    
  Mon, Dec 29 124 @Bradley L 62-74 13%    
  Thu, Jan 1 101 @Illinois St. L 62-76 9%    
  Sun, Jan 4 87 Northern Iowa L 59-68 19%    
  Wed, Jan 7 113 Murray St. L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Jan 10 196 @Indiana St. L 69-76 26%    
  Tue, Jan 13 124 Bradley L 65-71 28%    
  Tue, Jan 20 204 @Illinois-Chicago L 67-74 27%    
  Sun, Jan 25 142 Southern Illinois L 68-73 33%    
  Wed, Jan 28 128 @Drake L 60-72 14%    
  Sat, Jan 31 87 @Northern Iowa L 56-71 8%    
  Tue, Feb 3 196 Indiana St. L 72-73 46%    
  Fri, Feb 6 214 @Valparaiso L 63-69 28%    
  Mon, Feb 9 101 Illinois St. L 65-73 23%    
  Thu, Feb 12 142 @Southern Illinois L 65-76 17%    
  Wed, Feb 18 204 Illinois-Chicago L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 113 @Murray St. L 69-82 12%    
  Wed, Feb 25 88 @Belmont L 65-80 9%    
  Sat, Feb 28 214 Valparaiso L 66-67 49%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 14.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.3 7.2 7.2 4.1 1.0 0.1 23.6 10th
11th 1.9 5.9 10.4 10.9 8.0 3.5 0.8 0.1 41.5 11th
Total 1.9 5.9 11.2 14.3 16.0 14.4 12.4 9.4 6.3 4.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.1
14-6 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 4.7% 4.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-10 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
9-11 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-13 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-14 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
5-15 14.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-16 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
3-17 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
2-18 11.2% 11.2
1-19 5.9% 5.9
0-20 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%