Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#162
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#95
Pace69.2#181
Improvement+0.8#90

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#236
First Shot-3.4#271
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#112
Layup/Dunks-5.3#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#215
Freethrows+3.2#49
Improvement-0.4#249

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#114
First Shot+6.6#27
After Offensive Rebounds-4.7#352
Layups/Dunks+0.2#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+12.1#2
Freethrows-1.5#264
Improvement+1.2#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.1% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 50.3% 65.5% 40.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.1% 62.2% 47.1%
Conference Champion 5.4% 7.6% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 3.4% 7.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.7% 6.1% 3.7%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Neutral) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 77 - 12
Quad 47 - 214 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 85   @ Butler L 65-72 17%     0 - 1 +2.7 -0.9 +3.4
  Nov 16, 2024 147   Tulsa W 111-106 3OT 58%     1 - 1 +2.7 -0.9 +2.0
  Nov 19, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 78-68 62%     2 - 1 +6.6 +0.0 +6.5
  Nov 24, 2024 125   High Point L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 01, 2024 250   @ Oral Roberts W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 07, 2024 180   Indiana St. W 78-74 63%    
  Dec 14, 2024 80   @ Washington St. L 67-77 17%    
  Dec 22, 2024 119   UC Santa Barbara L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 29, 2024 300   @ Evansville W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 01, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 07, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 172   @ Illinois St. L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 21, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 66-73 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 107   Drake L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 180   @ Indiana St. L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 109   Murray St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 118   Northern Iowa L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 12, 2025 300   Evansville W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 16, 2025 157   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 172   Illinois St. W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 141   Belmont W 76-75 55%    
  Mar 02, 2025 107   @ Drake L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 4.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.6 6.8 8.6 10.3 11.4 11.6 10.6 9.5 7.7 5.5 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 95.9% 0.5    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 86.6% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 62.5% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1
15-5 36.2% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 48.4% 38.7% 9.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.8%
18-2 0.5% 35.5% 33.6% 1.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.8%
17-3 1.2% 24.4% 23.8% 0.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.8%
16-4 2.4% 20.9% 20.8% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 0.1%
15-5 3.8% 15.9% 15.9% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2
14-6 5.5% 12.6% 12.6% 12.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.8
13-7 7.7% 9.3% 9.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0
12-8 9.5% 6.3% 6.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.9
11-9 10.6% 4.3% 4.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.2
10-10 11.6% 2.5% 2.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.3
9-11 11.4% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.3
8-12 10.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
7-13 8.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.6
6-14 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.8
5-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 95.3 0.0%