IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.2	#219
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.9	#266

Pace	62.0	#339
Improvement	-0.8	#224

Offense
Total Offense	-3.4	#266

First Shot	-4.0	#294
After Offensive Rebound	+0.7	#141

Layup/Dunks	-4.1	#324
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.2	#166
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.1	#181
Freethrows	-0.2	#181

Improvement	-1.6	#261

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#172

First Shot	+0.5	#167
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.3	#217

Layups/Dunks	-2.8	#290
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.4	#297
3 Pt Jumpshots	+4.5	#21
Freethrows	+0.1	#178

Improvement	+0.8	#141

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

First Four	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
First Round	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 7	1 - 9
Quad 3	3 - 8	4 - 17
Quad 4	4 - 5	8 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf	Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	66	@ Butler	L	65-72	10%	0 - 1		+3.9	-2.1	+5.7
Nov 16, 2024	246	Tulsa	W	111-106 3OT	66%	1 - 1		-2.3	-0.5	-3.4
Nov 19, 2024	205	Texas Arlington	W	78-68	57%	2 - 1		+5.1	+0.1	+4.8
Nov 24, 2024	96	High Point	W	71-61	22%	3 - 1		+15.0	-0.2	+15.7
Nov 25, 2024	174	Boston College	L	74-76 OT	40%	3 - 2		-2.6	-1.1	-1.4
Nov 26, 2024	111	South Dakota St.	L	55-75	27%	3 - 3		-16.7	-13.8	-4.2
Dec 01, 2024	322	@ Oral Roberts	W	72-67	64%	4 - 3		-1.9	+0.8	-2.2
Dec 07, 2024	203	Indiana St.	L	77-80	56%	4 - 4	0 - 1	-7.8	+1.2	-9.0
Dec 14, 2024	107	@ Washington St.	L	78-91	19%	4 - 5		-6.9	+7.5	-14.4
Dec 22, 2024	145	UC Santa Barbara	W	68-56	44%	5 - 5		+10.4	+8.6	+4.5
Dec 29, 2024	237	@ Evansville	L	40-57	44%	5 - 6	0 - 2	-18.5	-25.7	+4.9
Jan 01, 2025	238	Valparaiso	L	72-73	64%	5 - 7	0 - 3	-7.7	+5.6	-13.5
Jan 04, 2025	94	@ Bradley	L	60-69	16%	5 - 8	0 - 4	-1.3	-1.0	-1.6
Jan 07, 2025	147	Illinois-Chicago	L	63-80	45%	5 - 9	0 - 5	-18.8	-2.1	-19.2
Jan 11, 2025	179	@ Southern Illinois	L	78-88 OT	32%	5 - 10	0 - 6	-8.5	+1.2	-8.9
Jan 15, 2025	179	Southern Illinois	L	51-73	51%	5 - 11	0 - 7	-25.5	-19.2	-7.9
Jan 18, 2025	127	@ Illinois St.	L	68-74	24%	5 - 12	0 - 8	-1.7	+1.9	-4.3
Jan 21, 2025	100	@ Northern Iowa	L	68-79	17%	5 - 13	0 - 9	-3.9	+8.1	-13.6
Jan 25, 2025	74	Drake	L	62-69 OT	21%	5 - 14	0 - 10	-1.8	+1.0	-3.9
Jan 29, 2025	203	@ Indiana St.	L	67-72	37%	5 - 15	0 - 11	-4.7	-2.3	-2.7
Feb 01, 2025	156	Murray St.	W	77-56	46%	6 - 15	1 - 11	+18.9	+6.0	+13.5
Feb 05, 2025	100	Northern Iowa	L	61-66	31%	6 - 16	1 - 12	-2.9	-8.1	+4.9
Feb 08, 2025	140	@ Belmont	L	68-85	26%	6 - 17	1 - 13	-13.3	-4.1	-10.0
Feb 12, 2025	237	Evansville	W	71-54	63%	7 - 17	2 - 13	+10.4	+7.5	+5.3
Feb 16, 2025	147	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	58-63	27%	7 - 18	2 - 14	-1.7	-13.7	+12.0
Feb 19, 2025	238	@ Valparaiso	L	64-66	44%	7 - 19	2 - 15	-3.6	-5.0	+1.1
Feb 22, 2025	127	Illinois St.	L	67-69	44%
Feb 26, 2025	140	Belmont	L	74-76	45%
Mar 02, 2025	74	@ Drake	L	54-67	10%
Projected Record						8 - 21	3 - 17

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																							1st
2nd																							2nd
3rd																							3rd
4th																							4th
5th																							5th
6th																							6th
7th																							7th
8th																							8th
9th																							9th
10th																							10th
11th						0.9																0.9	11th
12th			29.4	45.7	22.7	1.3																99.1	12th

Total			29.4	45.7	22.7	2.2																	Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15	2.2%	1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	2.2
4-16	22.7%	0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.2	22.5
3-17	45.7%	0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.3	45.4
2-18	29.4%	0.4%	0.4%		16.0																0.1	29.3
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	16.0																0.6	99.4	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%
Lose Out	20.4%