Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#307
Pace62.4#350
Improvement-0.4#220

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#250
First Shot-2.7#256
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks-2.6#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#208
Freethrows+2.5#57
Improvement+1.2#83

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#240
First Shot-0.4#182
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#300
Layups/Dunks+2.0#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#100
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement-1.7#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 10.6% 27.4% 9.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.8% 36.5% 20.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.1% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 12.2% 22.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.0% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 149 Arkansas St. L 85-86 40%     0 - 1 -3.7 +0.3 -3.8
  Sat, Nov 15 191 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 27%     0 - 2 -16.9 -20.1 +2.7
  Sat, Nov 22 209 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 54%     1 - 2 +0.8 +5.9 -4.4
  Mon, Nov 24 227 LIU Brooklyn L 61-75 57%     1 - 3 -20.9 -8.1 -14.4
  Sat, Dec 6 89 @Tulsa L 74-98 10%     1 - 4 -15.0 +6.1 -22.1
  Fri, Dec 12 77 @Xavier L 62-78 7%    
  Tue, Dec 16 301 Oral Roberts W 75-69 70%    
  Tue, Dec 23 236 Lindenwood W 72-70 58%    
  Mon, Dec 29 296 @Delaware L 68-69 47%    
  Fri, Jan 2 241 UTEP W 65-63 58%    
  Sun, Jan 4 127 New Mexico St. L 64-68 34%    
  Wed, Jan 7 152 @Kennesaw St. L 72-80 22%    
  Sat, Jan 10 189 Florida International L 71-72 49%    
  Wed, Jan 14 128 @Western Kentucky L 68-78 18%    
  Sat, Jan 17 136 @Middle Tennessee L 65-75 18%    
  Thu, Jan 22 127 @New Mexico St. L 61-71 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 241 @UTEP L 62-66 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 126 Sam Houston St. L 70-75 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 239 Jacksonville St. W 64-62 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 94 @Liberty L 62-76 11%    
  Thu, Feb 12 193 Louisiana Tech L 63-64 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 296 Delaware W 71-66 68%    
  Wed, Feb 18 152 Kennesaw St. L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 189 @Florida International L 68-74 29%    
  Thu, Feb 26 193 @Louisiana Tech L 61-67 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 126 @Sam Houston St. L 67-78 18%    
  Thu, Mar 5 128 Western Kentucky L 71-75 35%    
  Sat, Mar 7 136 Middle Tennessee L 68-72 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.4 1.3 0.2 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 14.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 5.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 16.4 11th
12th 0.4 1.3 3.0 4.3 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.5 12th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.3 8.8 11.1 12.9 12.7 11.6 9.8 8.0 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 79.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 68.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 40.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 15.3% 15.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 14.1% 14.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.3% 7.5% 7.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.4% 7.4% 7.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
12-8 3.8% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
11-9 5.4% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3
10-10 8.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.9
9-11 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.8
8-12 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.6
6-14 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-15 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.1
4-16 8.8% 8.8
3-17 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
2-18 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%