Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#157
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#93
Pace77.6#26
Improvement-0.8#278

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#169
First Shot+3.8#74
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#339
Layup/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#20
Freethrows-1.0#238
Improvement-0.4#241

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot-7.3#351
After Offensive Rebounds+6.9#1
Layups/Dunks+1.2#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#327
Freethrows-4.4#349
Improvement-0.4#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 8.0% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 50.4% 65.7% 39.7%
.500 or above in Conference 51.4% 61.2% 44.4%
Conference Champion 6.0% 8.6% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 4.2% 8.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round5.6% 7.9% 3.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Neutral) - 41.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 47 - 214 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 108   Yale W 91-79 46%     1 - 0 +13.1 +9.4 +2.7
  Nov 12, 2024 74   @ Northwestern L 74-83 16%     1 - 1 +1.7 +4.7 -2.8
  Nov 21, 2024 128   James Madison L 78-80 41%    
  Dec 04, 2024 118   Northern Iowa L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 08, 2024 339   Dartmouth W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 15, 2024 247   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 20, 2024 136   @ Seattle L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 29, 2024 172   @ Illinois St. L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 01, 2025 107   Drake L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 80-84 35%    
  Jan 07, 2025 162   @ Missouri St. L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 93   Bradley L 74-76 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 109   Murray St. L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 300   @ Evansville W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 180   Indiana St. W 86-82 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 172   Illinois St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 11, 2025 109   @ Murray St. L 71-78 28%    
  Feb 16, 2025 162   Missouri St. W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 107   @ Drake L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 300   Evansville W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 26, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 73-79 30%    
  Mar 02, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 82-73 77%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.5 2.6 0.7 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.2 7.1 8.8 10.2 11.0 10.8 10.3 9.0 7.6 5.7 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 97.4% 0.6    0.5 0.0
17-3 90.2% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 68.4% 1.6    1.0 0.6 0.1
15-5 39.5% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 14.4% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 55.6% 43.3% 12.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.6%
18-2 0.6% 38.5% 36.8% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.7%
17-3 1.3% 29.5% 28.8% 0.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.1%
16-4 2.3% 27.2% 27.1% 0.1% 12.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.1%
15-5 3.6% 18.9% 18.9% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.9
14-6 5.7% 15.3% 15.3% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.8
13-7 7.6% 12.5% 12.5% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.7
12-8 9.0% 7.3% 7.3% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.3
11-9 10.3% 4.0% 4.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9
10-10 10.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
9-11 11.0% 1.8% 1.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.8
8-12 10.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 8.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.8
6-14 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-15 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-16 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-17 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.7% 5.6% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 94.4 0.1%