Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#147
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#144
Pace71.6#83
Improvement-0.3#206

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#140
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#127
Layup/Dunks+0.5#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement-1.6#262

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#183
First Shot-0.6#197
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks-4.2#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#100
Freethrows+1.4#91
Improvement+1.3#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.7
.500 or above 84.1% 93.6% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.2% 84.1% 18.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.3% 3.7% 2.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 24 - 4
Quad 34 - 79 - 11
Quad 47 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 70   Yale W 91-79 32%     1 - 0 +17.5 +10.6 +5.9
  Nov 12, 2024 58   @ Northwestern L 74-83 13%     1 - 1 +3.8 +5.5 -1.4
  Nov 21, 2024 138   James Madison L 81-99 48%     1 - 2 -16.8 +1.0 -16.4
  Nov 22, 2024 236   La Salle W 96-83 68%     2 - 2 +9.0 +14.6 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 150   East Carolina L 55-72 50%     2 - 3 -16.3 -13.3 -4.6
  Dec 04, 2024 100   Northern Iowa L 56-83 45%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -24.9 -8.4 -20.2
  Dec 08, 2024 206   Dartmouth W 69-68 OT 71%     3 - 4 -4.0 -14.0 +9.9
  Dec 15, 2024 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 OT 58%     4 - 4 +6.6 +5.2 +1.2
  Dec 20, 2024 165   @ Seattle W 79-68 44%     5 - 4 +13.3 +5.4 +7.5
  Dec 29, 2024 127   @ Illinois St. W 73-67 36%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +10.3 +6.2 +4.8
  Jan 01, 2025 74   Drake W 74-70 33%     7 - 4 2 - 1 +9.2 +16.9 -6.9
  Jan 04, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 87-92 39%     7 - 5 2 - 2 -1.3 +3.5 -4.3
  Jan 07, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. W 80-63 55%     8 - 5 3 - 2 +16.4 +20.6 -1.7
  Jan 11, 2025 94   Bradley L 60-61 43%     8 - 6 3 - 3 +1.6 -10.1 +11.7
  Jan 15, 2025 156   Murray St. W 97-93 2OT 61%     9 - 6 4 - 3 +1.9 +3.9 -2.8
  Jan 18, 2025 238   @ Valparaiso W 81-74 59%     10 - 6 5 - 3 +5.4 +5.9 -0.6
  Jan 22, 2025 237   @ Evansville W 78-67 59%     11 - 6 6 - 3 +9.5 +11.7 -1.5
  Jan 25, 2025 179   Southern Illinois L 85-89 66%     11 - 7 6 - 4 -7.5 +8.4 -15.8
  Jan 29, 2025 94   @ Bradley W 93-70 25%     12 - 7 7 - 4 +30.7 +21.0 +9.0
  Feb 01, 2025 203   Indiana St. L 83-88 70%     12 - 8 7 - 5 -9.8 -0.6 -8.8
  Feb 05, 2025 127   Illinois St. L 79-81 56%     12 - 9 7 - 6 -2.8 +6.7 -9.6
  Feb 08, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois L 67-79 47%     12 - 10 7 - 7 -10.5 -4.8 -5.5
  Feb 11, 2025 156   @ Murray St. L 53-63 41%     12 - 11 7 - 8 -7.0 -8.8 +0.2
  Feb 16, 2025 219   Missouri St. W 63-58 73%     13 - 11 8 - 8 -0.7 -10.7 +10.0
  Feb 19, 2025 74   @ Drake L 57-74 18%     13 - 12 8 - 9 -6.7 +0.0 -10.0
  Feb 22, 2025 237   Evansville W 75-68 77%    
  Feb 26, 2025 100   @ Northern Iowa L 70-76 26%    
  Mar 02, 2025 238   Valparaiso W 81-74 78%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.8 5.0 6.9 4th
5th 2.2 36.4 11.3 50.0 5th
6th 11.1 13.8 24.9 6th
7th 0.1 10.6 0.8 11.4 7th
8th 1.5 2.7 4.2 8th
9th 2.3 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 4.1 26.7 52.9 16.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 16.3% 5.3% 5.3% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 15.5
10-10 52.9% 3.5% 3.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 51.0
9-11 26.7% 2.0% 2.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 26.1
8-12 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 4.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.3 1.1 66.7 29.9 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%
Lose Out 2.0%