Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#70
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#94
Pace69.4#138
Improvement+3.2#57

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#43
First Shot+3.5#82
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#32
Layup/Dunks+0.8#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+1.3#113

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#122
First Shot+2.8#85
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#282
Layups/Dunks+5.2#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#235
Freethrows-2.0#310
Improvement+1.8#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.5% 65.8% 60.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round65.5% 65.8% 60.1%
Second Round13.7% 13.9% 10.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.4% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 27 - 6
Quad 414 - 121 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 189   Quinnipiac W 88-62 87%     1 - 0 +21.8 +12.5 +8.5
  Nov 08, 2024 147   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 68%     1 - 1 -8.7 +0.0 -7.6
  Nov 11, 2024 16   @ Purdue L 84-92 13%     1 - 2 +12.0 +15.2 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 76   @ Minnesota L 56-59 43%     1 - 3 +6.9 +4.8 +1.3
  Nov 20, 2024 320   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 91%     2 - 3 +15.1 +7.1 +7.9
  Nov 23, 2024 328   Fairfield W 91-66 95%     3 - 3 +14.8 +26.6 -8.0
  Nov 24, 2024 244   Delaware L 94-100 88%     3 - 4 -10.5 +8.9 -19.0
  Dec 02, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 78-84 62%     3 - 5 -1.2 +2.1 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 230   Vermont W 65-50 90%     4 - 5 +8.8 +0.4 +10.1
  Dec 20, 2024 102   Akron W 74-58 64%     5 - 5 +20.3 +1.2 +18.8
  Dec 21, 2024 139   @ UTEP L 74-75 66%     5 - 6 +2.7 +4.0 -1.3
  Jan 01, 2025 305   Howard W 93-65 95%     6 - 6 +17.1 +18.1 +1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 185   Brown W 79-58 87%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +17.0 +10.5 +8.1
  Jan 18, 2025 275   @ Columbia W 92-88 86%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +0.2 +5.4 -5.6
  Jan 20, 2025 206   Dartmouth W 83-67 89%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +11.0 +3.7 +6.0
  Jan 25, 2025 251   Harvard W 84-55 92%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +21.4 +11.6 +11.1
  Jan 31, 2025 162   @ Princeton W 77-70 71%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +9.5 +11.6 -1.6
  Feb 01, 2025 260   @ Penn W 90-61 85%     12 - 6 6 - 0 +26.2 +13.1 +12.7
  Feb 08, 2025 164   @ Cornell W 103-88 71%     13 - 6 7 - 0 +17.4 +20.6 -4.3
  Feb 14, 2025 260   Penn W 72-71 92%     14 - 6 8 - 0 -6.9 +1.6 -8.5
  Feb 15, 2025 162   Princeton W 84-57 84%     15 - 6 9 - 0 +24.4 +15.6 +10.6
  Feb 21, 2025 164   Cornell W 92-88 84%     16 - 6 10 - 0 +1.3 +10.5 -9.4
  Feb 22, 2025 275   Columbia W 90-73 95%    
  Feb 28, 2025 206   @ Dartmouth W 80-72 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 251   @ Harvard W 79-68 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 185   @ Brown W 77-70 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 13 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 13.3 39.0 45.4 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.1 2.3 13.3 39.0 45.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 45.4    45.4
13-1 100.0% 39.0    39.0
12-2 100.0% 13.3    13.3
11-3 100.0% 2.3    2.3
10-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
9-5
8-6
7-7
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 45.4% 68.1% 68.1% 11.8 0.0 6.5 22.5 1.9 0.0 14.5
13-1 39.0% 64.8% 64.8% 12.2 1.5 16.8 6.7 0.4 13.7
12-2 13.3% 59.3% 59.3% 12.5 0.1 4.0 3.4 0.4 5.4
11-3 2.3% 59.9% 59.9% 12.9 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.9
10-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 65.5% 65.5% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 8.1 43.7 12.6 1.1 34.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 30.9% 100.0% 11.8 0.1 20.9 72.9 6.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.9%