Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#88
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#135
Pace69.4#160
Improvement+1.8#102

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#63
First Shot+2.2#113
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#43
Layup/Dunks+0.4#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows+0.2#161
Improvement-1.2#260

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#121
First Shot+2.8#92
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#277
Layups/Dunks+5.2#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
Freethrows-2.0#312
Improvement+3.0#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.9% 48.4% 41.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.9
.500 or above 99.0% 99.2% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.5% 96.6%
Conference Champion 67.3% 69.0% 43.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round47.9% 48.4% 41.0%
Second Round8.9% 9.1% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.1% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 46 - 8
Quad 412 - 118 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 184   Quinnipiac W 88-62 83%     1 - 0 +22.2 +12.7 +8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 143   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 59%     1 - 1 -7.8 +0.2 -6.9
  Nov 11, 2024 10   @ Purdue L 84-92 10%     1 - 2 +12.4 +16.9 -4.2
  Nov 16, 2024 98   @ Minnesota L 56-59 45%     1 - 3 +4.8 +3.9 +0.0
  Nov 20, 2024 320   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 88%     2 - 3 +15.5 +8.5 +6.8
  Nov 23, 2024 318   Fairfield W 91-66 92%     3 - 3 +16.0 +26.0 -6.2
  Nov 24, 2024 196   Delaware L 94-100 78%     3 - 4 -7.6 +10.7 -17.9
  Dec 02, 2024 109   @ Rhode Island L 78-84 51%     3 - 5 +0.2 +3.0 -2.4
  Dec 07, 2024 211   Vermont W 65-50 86%     4 - 5 +9.6 +0.6 +10.7
  Dec 20, 2024 124   Akron W 74-58 65%     5 - 5 +18.5 +0.4 +17.8
  Dec 21, 2024 131   @ UTEP L 74-75 57%     5 - 6 +3.6 +4.3 -0.7
  Jan 01, 2025 281   Howard W 93-65 93%     6 - 6 +18.3 +17.6 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2025 212   Brown W 79-58 86%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +15.5 +9.6 +7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ Columbia W 92-88 72%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +4.5 +6.9 -2.8
  Jan 20, 2025 274   Dartmouth W 84-68 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 215   Harvard W 78-66 88%    
  Jan 31, 2025 122   @ Princeton W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 287   @ Penn W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 134   @ Cornell W 83-81 56%    
  Feb 14, 2025 287   Penn W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 15, 2025 122   Princeton W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 21, 2025 134   Cornell W 86-79 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 207   Columbia W 85-74 86%    
  Feb 28, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth W 81-71 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 215   @ Harvard W 76-69 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 212   @ Brown W 75-69 72%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.5 4.7 15.3 22.5 17.6 6.8 67.3 1st
2nd 0.6 4.1 8.7 6.9 1.5 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 1.8 0.2 7.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.5 8.5 15.2 22.4 24.0 17.6 6.8 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 6.8    6.8
13-1 100.0% 17.6    17.1 0.5
12-2 93.6% 22.5    18.3 4.2 0.0
11-3 68.2% 15.3    8.5 6.0 0.8
10-4 30.8% 4.7    1.4 2.3 1.0 0.1
9-5 6.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 67.3% 67.3 52.1 13.1 2.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 6.8% 67.5% 67.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.5 1.3 0.0 2.2
13-1 17.6% 60.1% 60.1% 12.0 0.0 1.7 6.8 2.0 0.1 7.0
12-2 24.0% 51.1% 51.1% 12.4 0.5 6.8 4.5 0.5 11.7
11-3 22.4% 45.5% 45.5% 12.7 0.1 3.5 5.6 0.9 12.2
10-4 15.2% 41.7% 41.7% 13.1 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.6 0.1 8.9
9-5 8.5% 34.7% 34.7% 13.4 0.2 1.5 1.1 0.2 5.5
8-6 3.5% 26.1% 26.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 2.6
7-7 1.4% 7.8% 7.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.3
6-8 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5
5-9 0.1% 0.1
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 47.9% 47.9% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 4.8 19.6 17.5 4.8 0.5 52.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 11.0 0.2 0.2 1.1 2.2 4.6 7.4 55.3 28.5 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%