Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#108
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#225
Pace65.7#283
Improvement-1.4#319

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#93
First Shot+1.9#119
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#103
Layup/Dunks-1.9#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
Freethrows+1.6#107
Improvement-0.7#291

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#140
First Shot+5.8#36
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#357
Layups/Dunks+2.5#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#58
Freethrows-2.2#297
Improvement-0.7#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.9% 35.9% 27.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.6
.500 or above 87.8% 91.6% 75.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 94.7% 90.2%
Conference Champion 44.6% 47.3% 36.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round33.8% 35.8% 27.4%
Second Round5.5% 6.1% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.6% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 411 - 217 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   Quinnipiac W 88-62 83%     1 - 0 +19.9 +11.1 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 157   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 54%     1 - 1 -8.9 +0.3 -8.2
  Nov 11, 2024 19   @ Purdue L 84-92 12%     1 - 2 +9.0 +14.2 -4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 90   @ Minnesota L 56-59 33%     1 - 3 +5.7 +5.8 -0.9
  Nov 20, 2024 285   @ Stony Brook W 76-68 76%    
  Nov 23, 2024 274   Fairfield W 75-65 83%    
  Nov 24, 2024 213   Delaware W 77-70 73%    
  Dec 02, 2024 117   @ Rhode Island L 74-76 42%    
  Dec 07, 2024 149   Vermont W 68-61 72%    
  Dec 20, 2024 139   Akron W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 01, 2025 232   Howard W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 11, 2025 221   Brown W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 192   @ Columbia W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 20, 2025 339   Dartmouth W 79-60 95%    
  Jan 25, 2025 243   Harvard W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 31, 2025 110   @ Princeton L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 268   @ Penn W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 167   @ Cornell W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 14, 2025 268   Penn W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 110   Princeton W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 21, 2025 167   Cornell W 82-74 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 192   Columbia W 80-71 77%    
  Feb 28, 2025 339   @ Dartmouth W 76-63 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 243   @ Harvard W 73-68 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 221   @ Brown W 73-69 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.4 11.7 14.0 9.5 3.1 44.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 6.7 10.0 5.8 1.3 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.3 5.8 1.9 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.3 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.6 6.6 10.3 14.1 17.3 17.6 15.2 9.5 3.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
13-1 100.0% 9.5    9.1 0.4
12-2 91.7% 14.0    11.3 2.6 0.0
11-3 66.3% 11.7    6.6 4.5 0.6
10-4 31.2% 5.4    1.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
9-5 6.8% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 44.6% 44.6 31.9 10.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 3.1% 66.2% 65.5% 0.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.9%
13-1 9.5% 57.7% 57.7% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.0 0.1%
12-2 15.2% 49.0% 49.0% 12.7 0.2 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.8
11-3 17.6% 40.8% 40.8% 13.1 0.0 1.5 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.4
10-4 17.3% 33.2% 33.2% 13.7 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.3 0.9 0.1 11.5
9-5 14.1% 27.2% 27.2% 14.2 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.3 10.2
8-6 10.3% 17.5% 17.5% 14.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 8.5
7-7 6.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 6.2
6-8 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-9 1.8% 1.8
4-10 0.6% 0.6
3-11 0.2% 0.2
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 33.9% 33.9% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.6 8.7 11.3 7.3 3.5 0.9 66.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 7.6 0.5 0.5 2.7 9.9 12.6 14.4 12.6 5.9 8.6 9.9 15.8 6.3 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 8.6% 10.6 1.7 1.7 3.4 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 4.7% 11.0 4.7