Ivy League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
98 Yale 38.2%   13   2 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 8 10 - 4 +5.2      +3.8 75 +1.4 131 67.4 239 0.0 187 0.0 1
109 Princeton 30.9%   4 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 8 10 - 4 +4.0      +3.7 77 +0.2 157 66.6 263 +7.0 84 0.0 1
170 Cornell 10.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 11 8 - 6 -0.6      +2.5 110 -3.0 271 77.1 34 +3.9 125 0.0 1
190 Columbia 8.5%   6 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 7 - 7 -1.4      +3.0 96 -4.4 317 70.3 149 +14.6 24 0.0 1
224 Brown 5.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 7 -3.0      -1.5 213 -1.5 222 67.6 233 -12.8 322 0.0 1
244 Harvard 4.0%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 16 6 - 8 -4.1      -3.1 264 -1.0 202 69.0 185 -9.2 302 0.0 1
267 Penn 2.1%   2 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 16 5 - 9 -5.5      +0.3 169 -5.9 345 64.4 313 -6.9 282 0.0 1
339 Dartmouth 0.2%   1 - 3 0 - 0 5 - 20 3 - 11 -11.6      -8.1 355 -3.5 291 70.7 136 -12.8 324 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 1.9 50.6 25.4 12.3 6.4 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Princeton 2.3 38.9 27.9 15.6 8.7 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.3
Cornell 3.7 12.9 17.5 19.6 17.4 14.1 10.0 6.3 2.1
Columbia 3.9 9.3 15.2 19.1 19.1 15.7 11.7 7.5 2.4
Brown 4.6 5.2 10.2 14.7 17.9 18.6 16.4 12.3 4.7
Harvard 5.0 3.5 7.1 12.4 16.1 18.5 19.2 16.3 6.9
Penn 5.5 2.1 4.7 8.8 12.9 16.9 20.9 22.7 11.1
Dartmouth 7.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.5 11.3 22.6 55.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.7 8.6 12.9 17.1 19.5 17.5 11.4 4.3
Princeton 10 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.0 7.3 10.9 15.0 17.7 17.5 13.7 8.1 2.5
Cornell 8 - 6 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.3 8.8 12.4 15.0 15.6 14.1 11.2 7.6 4.1 1.5 0.3
Columbia 7 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.2 6.6 10.0 14.2 16.1 16.1 13.3 9.8 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.1
Brown 7 - 7 0.1 0.9 2.7 6.1 10.0 13.9 16.3 15.8 13.5 9.9 6.2 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
Harvard 6 - 8 0.3 1.6 4.3 8.4 12.4 15.8 16.4 14.8 11.7 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Penn 5 - 9 0.6 2.9 7.1 11.8 15.8 16.7 16.0 11.9 8.4 4.9 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 3 - 11 9.8 18.9 21.7 18.5 13.7 8.6 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 50.6% 37.0 11.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Princeton 38.9% 26.5 10.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cornell 12.9% 7.1 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Columbia 9.3% 4.9 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Brown 5.2% 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Harvard 3.5% 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn 2.1% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 38.2% 38.1% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.5 12.1 12.4 7.1 2.6 0.4 61.8 0.1%
Princeton 30.9% 30.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.4 11.6 10.0 4.7 1.4 0.1 69.1 0.2%
Cornell 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 3.1 1.9 0.4 89.2 0.0%
Columbia 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.3 2.3 0.9 0.0 91.5 0.0%
Brown 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.1 94.5 0.0%
Harvard 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.8 96.0 0.0%
Penn 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 97.9 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Yale 38.2% 0.2% 38.1% 7.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 30.9% 0.1% 30.9% 5.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 10.8% 0.1% 10.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 8.5% 0.0% 8.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 5.5% 1.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 4.0% 1.2% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 2.1% 0.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.6 0.1
2nd Round 14.6% 0.1 85.4 14.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0