Dartmouth
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#274
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#280
Pace74.4#48
Improvement+4.9#16

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#297
First Shot-0.4#188
After Offensive Rebound-4.2#355
Layup/Dunks-6.3#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#25
Freethrows+0.1#163
Improvement+3.4#28

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#236
First Shot-4.7#321
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#9
Layups/Dunks-5.7#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#222
Freethrows+1.4#86
Improvement+1.5#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 2.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 2.4% 10.1% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 15.5% 37.6% 14.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 2.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.8% 13.5% 29.9%
First Four0.4% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round0.6% 1.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Away) - 6.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 47 - 69 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 295   Sacred Heart W 81-76 65%     1 - 0 -5.4 -5.1 -0.8
  Nov 13, 2024 260   Albany L 73-87 58%     1 - 1 -22.4 -6.9 -15.1
  Nov 16, 2024 282   @ Boston University L 50-78 42%     1 - 2 -32.2 -21.7 -11.4
  Nov 19, 2024 218   @ Marist L 62-75 28%     1 - 3 -13.4 -8.7 -4.4
  Nov 29, 2024 195   @ Boston College W 88-83 23%     2 - 3 +6.2 +10.2 -4.3
  Dec 03, 2024 351   @ New Hampshire W 69-65 64%     3 - 3 -6.1 -5.1 -0.9
  Dec 08, 2024 143   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-69 OT 16%     3 - 4 +3.2 -13.6 +16.9
  Dec 11, 2024 77   @ Notre Dame L 65-77 7%     3 - 5 -2.0 -3.6 +1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 188   @ Umass Lowell L 83-92 23%     3 - 6 -7.5 +7.9 -15.2
  Dec 18, 2024 350   Le Moyne L 76-80 80%     3 - 7 -19.4 -7.5 -11.7
  Dec 21, 2024 211   Vermont W 84-54 46%     4 - 7 +24.6 +15.4 +10.4
  Jan 11, 2025 287   Penn W 73-70 63%     5 - 7 1 - 0 -6.9 -5.9 -1.1
  Jan 18, 2025 122   Princeton L 80-81 27%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -1.1 +3.4 -4.5
  Jan 20, 2025 88   @ Yale L 68-84 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 212   @ Brown L 68-74 26%    
  Jan 31, 2025 134   @ Cornell L 77-88 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   @ Columbia L 75-82 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 215   Harvard L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 14, 2025 207   Columbia L 78-79 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 134   Cornell L 80-85 32%    
  Feb 21, 2025 287   @ Penn L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 122   Princeton L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 28, 2025 88   Yale L 71-81 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 212   Brown L 71-72 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 215   @ Harvard L 69-75 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 16 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 4.8 3rd
4th 0.5 4.3 5.5 1.5 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.9 6.4 8.1 1.9 0.0 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 8.5 10.3 2.1 0.1 22.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 10.3 10.7 2.2 26.4 7th
8th 2.3 6.7 5.7 1.1 0.0 15.7 8th
Total 2.4 9.7 17.2 21.2 19.4 14.6 9.1 4.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 76.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-4 21.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1
9-5 3.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.0% 0.0
11-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 0.5% 7.7% 7.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-5 1.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
8-6 4.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.0
7-7 9.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 8.9
6-8 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 14.6
5-9 19.4% 19.4
4-10 21.2% 21.2
3-11 17.2% 17.2
2-12 9.7% 9.7
1-13 2.4% 2.4
0-14
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%