Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#300
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#274
Pace60.4#352
Improvement-1.0#234

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#309
First Shot-5.2#317
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#180
Layup/Dunks-4.9#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#108
Freethrows-3.0#338
Improvement-0.7#221

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#249
First Shot-2.9#265
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#169
Layups/Dunks+0.4#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#276
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement-0.3#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.8% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 22.8% 47.3% 12.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 100.0% 73.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.7% 7.4% 6.4%
First Round3.4% 4.6% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 29.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 31 - 4
Quad 414 - 1315 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 212   Northeastern L 72-80 40%     0 - 1 -13.2 +2.2 -15.9
  Nov 08, 2024 314   @ San Diego L 60-74 45%     0 - 2 -20.6 -7.5 -14.7
  Nov 11, 2024 27   @ UCLA L 40-71 2%     0 - 3 -13.7 -24.6 +12.1
  Nov 16, 2024 206   Dartmouth W 78-50 39%     1 - 3 +23.0 +7.6 +16.3
  Nov 19, 2024 347   Wagner L 58-60 76%     1 - 4 -17.2 -10.1 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2024 288   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-71 37%     2 - 4 -0.5 -4.9 +4.3
  Nov 24, 2024 305   Howard W 69-62 52%     3 - 4 -1.4 -5.6 +4.8
  Dec 01, 2024 274   Sacred Heart L 65-73 54%     3 - 5 -16.9 -12.6 -4.4
  Dec 07, 2024 267   Albany W 80-74 OT 51%     4 - 5 -2.1 +3.3 -5.4
  Dec 13, 2024 214   @ Merrimack L 61-64 23%     4 - 6 -3.1 +6.4 -10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 225   @ Umass Lowell L 71-83 26%     4 - 7 -12.9 +2.4 -16.6
  Dec 29, 2024 209   @ Maine W 59-56 23%     5 - 7 +3.0 -3.0 +6.4
  Jan 02, 2025 298   @ Lafayette L 46-60 40%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -19.1 -18.4 -3.2
  Jan 05, 2025 287   Army W 71-63 57%     6 - 8 1 - 1 -1.5 -1.1 +0.2
  Jan 08, 2025 247   American W 60-54 48%     7 - 8 2 - 1 -1.4 -5.4 +5.2
  Jan 11, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 50-87 28%     7 - 9 2 - 2 -38.7 -23.0 -17.8
  Jan 15, 2025 279   Lehigh W 63-58 55%     8 - 9 3 - 2 -4.1 -1.7 -1.5
  Jan 18, 2025 287   @ Army L 62-68 37%     8 - 10 3 - 3 -10.4 -1.7 -9.8
  Jan 22, 2025 283   @ Navy L 47-62 37%     8 - 11 3 - 4 -19.3 -19.8 -2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 232   Bucknell W 85-82 OT 45%     9 - 11 4 - 4 -3.4 +13.6 -16.9
  Jan 27, 2025 317   Holy Cross W 69-59 65%     10 - 11 5 - 4 -1.7 -5.1 +4.1
  Feb 01, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-69 48%     10 - 12 5 - 5 -9.4 -7.9 -1.5
  Feb 05, 2025 283   Navy W 87-65 56%     11 - 12 6 - 5 +12.6 +23.0 -7.2
  Feb 08, 2025 317   @ Holy Cross L 52-72 45%     11 - 13 6 - 6 -26.6 -19.4 -9.4
  Feb 12, 2025 232   @ Bucknell L 60-76 27%     11 - 14 6 - 7 -17.3 -7.7 -10.8
  Feb 15, 2025 239   Colgate W 93-91 2OT 46%     12 - 14 7 - 7 -4.8 +3.5 -8.6
  Feb 19, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 68-66 67%     13 - 14 8 - 7 -10.5 -5.2 -5.1
  Feb 22, 2025 247   @ American L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 279   @ Lehigh L 63-67 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 298   Lafayette W 64-62 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.9 0.9 2nd
3rd 1.8 3.2 5.0 3rd
4th 1.6 10.7 1.9 14.2 4th
5th 7.4 35.8 17.4 0.3 60.9 5th
6th 11.7 7.3 18.9 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 19.1 44.6 29.8 6.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 6.5% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 5.8
10-8 29.8% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7 27.2
9-9 44.6% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 3.1 41.5
8-10 19.1% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.9 18.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.3 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 16.0 3.1 96.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 12.4%