Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#319
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#232
Pace64.8#273
Improvement-1.7#255

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#220
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#273
Layup/Dunks-7.5#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#8
Freethrows-2.7#326
Improvement-0.9#239

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#352
First Shot-5.1#331
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#339
Layups/Dunks-8.6#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#141
Freethrows+1.9#60
Improvement-0.7#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.8% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 23.8% 32.2% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 20.6% 28.5% 10.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 32.0% 23.0% 44.0%
First Four2.7% 3.2% 2.1%
First Round1.6% 1.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 411 - 1114 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 1%     0 - 1 -5.4 -1.8 -4.7
  Nov 08, 2024 109   @ Rhode Island L 77-91 8%     0 - 2 -7.8 +3.7 -10.8
  Nov 15, 2024 296   Sacred Heart W 82-75 44%     1 - 2 -0.7 +14.2 -14.1
  Nov 16, 2024 207   @ Brown W 73-65 18%     2 - 2 +8.5 +5.0 +4.0
  Nov 17, 2024 351   New Hampshire W 74-72 65%     3 - 2 -11.0 +5.8 -16.5
  Nov 24, 2024 200   @ Maine L 55-80 17%     3 - 3 -24.1 -13.2 -11.6
  Nov 29, 2024 107   @ Virginia L 41-67 8%     3 - 4 -19.8 -17.1 -8.4
  Dec 04, 2024 235   Harvard W 68-67 42%     4 - 4 -6.0 -3.5 -2.4
  Dec 07, 2024 230   Central Connecticut St. L 56-69 40%     4 - 5 -19.6 -9.5 -11.8
  Dec 17, 2024 183   @ Quinnipiac W 70-69 16%     5 - 5 +2.7 +1.4 +1.3
  Dec 20, 2024 272   @ Siena W 78-70 29%     6 - 5 +4.5 +14.3 -8.8
  Jan 02, 2025 315   Loyola Maryland W 74-72 59%     7 - 5 1 - 0 -9.4 -0.7 -8.6
  Jan 05, 2025 236   @ American L 64-75 23%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -12.5 -0.1 -14.0
  Jan 08, 2025 292   Navy W 70-59 54%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +0.8 -5.6 +6.9
  Jan 11, 2025 277   @ Lafayette L 65-82 30%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -20.7 -5.4 -15.9
  Jan 15, 2025 265   @ Bucknell L 82-86 28%     8 - 8 2 - 3 -7.2 +14.5 -21.9
  Jan 18, 2025 236   American L 65-74 42%     8 - 9 2 - 4 -16.0 -3.5 -13.6
  Jan 22, 2025 303   Army W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 315   @ Loyola Maryland L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 27, 2025 282   @ Boston University L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 298   Lehigh W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 303   @ Army L 71-75 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 282   Boston University W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 199   Colgate L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 298   @ Lehigh L 71-75 34%    
  Feb 19, 2025 277   Lafayette W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 292   @ Navy L 72-76 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 199   @ Colgate L 67-77 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 265   Bucknell L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.8 2.6 1.0 0.1 4.5 3rd
4th 0.4 4.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.2 3.8 4.9 0.4 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 7.2 1.6 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.5 4.4 0.2 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.7 7.7 0.7 16.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.7 8.7 1.9 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.5 2.5 6.5 6.7 2.3 0.1 18.6 10th
Total 0.5 2.6 7.7 13.5 19.2 19.4 16.6 11.6 5.9 2.3 0.7 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 64.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 29.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
11-7 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 13.2% 13.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6
11-7 2.3% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.1
10-8 5.9% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 5.4
9-9 11.6% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.7 10.9
8-10 16.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.7 15.9
7-11 19.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.5 18.9
6-12 19.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.9
5-13 13.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.3
4-14 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.6
3-15 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 3.1 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%