Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#316
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#130
Pace64.8#302
Improvement-0.3#215

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#201
First Shot-0.4#198
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#220
Layup/Dunks-5.4#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#46
Freethrows-2.1#289
Improvement+0.7#87

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#358
First Shot-7.2#355
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#206
Layups/Dunks-6.8#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#295
Freethrows+2.2#72
Improvement-1.0#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.4% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 26.6% 44.1% 21.4%
.500 or above in Conference 34.7% 45.2% 31.6%
Conference Champion 3.6% 5.9% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 20.9% 14.5% 22.8%
First Four2.3% 2.7% 2.2%
First Round2.5% 4.0% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 411 - 1113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 37   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 3%     0 - 1 -9.5 -4.2 -6.4
  Nov 08, 2024 113   @ Rhode Island L 77-91 8%     0 - 2 -7.3 +2.1 -8.7
  Nov 15, 2024 333   Sacred Heart W 82-75 57%     1 - 2 -3.3 +11.7 -14.2
  Nov 16, 2024 224   @ Brown W 73-65 21%     2 - 2 +8.0 +5.0 +3.5
  Nov 17, 2024 341   New Hampshire W 74-72 62%     3 - 2 -9.9 +4.5 -14.2
  Nov 24, 2024 236   @ Maine L 64-72 23%    
  Nov 29, 2024 58   @ Virginia L 52-73 3%    
  Dec 04, 2024 244   Harvard L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 07, 2024 254   Central Connecticut St. L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 17, 2024 225   @ Quinnipiac L 70-79 22%    
  Dec 20, 2024 306   @ Siena L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 02, 2025 335   Loyola Maryland W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 05, 2025 260   @ American L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 08, 2025 309   Navy W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 240   @ Lafayette L 65-73 25%    
  Jan 15, 2025 235   @ Bucknell L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 260   American L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 22, 2025 293   Army W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 335   @ Loyola Maryland L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 27, 2025 286   @ Boston University L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 283   Lehigh W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 293   @ Army L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 286   Boston University W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 189   Colgate L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 283   @ Lehigh L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 240   Lafayette L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 23, 2025 309   @ Navy L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 189   @ Colgate L 64-74 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 235   Bucknell L 70-72 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.7 2.7 0.3 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 14.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.8 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.7 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.2 10.3 12.3 13.2 12.2 10.9 8.7 6.3 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 94.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 72.7% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 43.2% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 14.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 26.1% 26.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 36.9% 36.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.6% 25.7% 25.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.3% 20.1% 20.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
13-5 2.5% 16.4% 16.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1
12-6 4.1% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.6
11-7 6.3% 8.7% 8.7% 15.9 0.0 0.5 5.7
10-8 8.7% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.2
9-9 10.9% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.3
8-10 12.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.9
7-11 13.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.9
6-12 12.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.2
5-13 10.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.2
4-14 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-15 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.1 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%