Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#317
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#283
Pace64.8#274
Improvement-0.9#231

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#273
First Shot-2.0#232
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#283
Layup/Dunks-7.9#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#20
Freethrows-2.9#334
Improvement-3.4#323

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#327
First Shot-3.5#289
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#328
Layups/Dunks-7.8#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#117
Freethrows+2.1#51
Improvement+2.5#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.0% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 3.7% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.6% 25.7% 72.0%
First Four2.1% 2.7% 1.8%
First Round1.0% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 410 - 1213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 7   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 1%     0 - 1 -2.7 -1.5 -2.3
  Nov 08, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 77-91 10%     0 - 2 -9.2 +2.8 -11.2
  Nov 15, 2024 274   Sacred Heart W 82-75 39%     1 - 2 +0.7 +14.5 -13.0
  Nov 16, 2024 185   @ Brown W 73-65 17%     2 - 2 +9.1 +5.9 +3.7
  Nov 17, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 74-72 67%     3 - 2 -11.8 +3.5 -15.0
  Nov 24, 2024 209   @ Maine L 55-80 19%     3 - 3 -25.0 -13.7 -11.9
  Nov 29, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 41-67 7%     3 - 4 -18.3 -19.6 -4.2
  Dec 04, 2024 251   Harvard W 68-67 44%     4 - 4 -6.6 -4.2 -2.3
  Dec 07, 2024 197   Central Connecticut St. L 56-69 33%     4 - 5 -17.6 -9.2 -10.1
  Dec 17, 2024 189   @ Quinnipiac W 70-69 17%     5 - 5 +1.9 +1.0 +0.9
  Dec 20, 2024 228   @ Siena W 78-70 22%     6 - 5 +6.9 +14.6 -6.7
  Jan 02, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 74-72 62%     7 - 5 1 - 0 -10.5 -0.3 -10.0
  Jan 05, 2025 247   @ American L 64-75 25%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -13.3 -1.0 -13.9
  Jan 08, 2025 283   Navy W 70-59 51%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +1.6 -3.9 +5.9
  Jan 11, 2025 298   @ Lafayette L 65-82 35%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -22.1 -5.5 -17.2
  Jan 15, 2025 232   @ Bucknell L 82-86 23%     8 - 8 2 - 3 -5.3 +13.9 -19.4
  Jan 18, 2025 247   American L 65-74 43%     8 - 9 2 - 4 -16.4 -4.2 -13.3
  Jan 22, 2025 287   Army L 71-76 51%     8 - 10 2 - 5 -14.5 -9.4 -5.0
  Jan 25, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-65 43%     9 - 10 3 - 5 -2.4 -3.9 +1.6
  Jan 27, 2025 300   @ Boston University L 59-69 35%     9 - 11 3 - 6 -15.3 -10.6 -5.5
  Feb 01, 2025 279   Lehigh L 67-69 50%     9 - 12 3 - 7 -11.1 -2.6 -8.7
  Feb 05, 2025 287   @ Army L 65-68 32%     9 - 13 3 - 8 -7.4 -5.7 -2.0
  Feb 08, 2025 300   Boston University W 72-52 55%     10 - 13 4 - 8 +9.6 +2.9 +8.8
  Feb 12, 2025 239   Colgate L 65-87 41%     10 - 14 4 - 9 -28.8 -8.5 -22.0
  Feb 15, 2025 279   @ Lehigh L 60-72 31%     10 - 15 4 - 10 -16.0 -5.6 -11.9
  Feb 19, 2025 298   Lafayette W 74-69 OT 54%     11 - 15 5 - 10 -5.2 -2.3 -3.0
  Feb 23, 2025 283   @ Navy L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 26, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 69-76 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 232   Bucknell L 69-72 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.5 0.5 5th
6th 2.0 2.4 4.3 6th
7th 5.6 13.5 0.6 19.6 7th
8th 2.4 21.0 5.5 28.9 8th
9th 12.7 13.8 0.1 26.6 9th
10th 17.7 2.4 20.1 10th
Total 32.8 42.8 21.0 3.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 3.5% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.3 3.2
7-11 21.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.6 20.4
6-12 42.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.8 42.0
5-13 32.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.5 32.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 18.8%