Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#239
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#267
Pace66.4#228
Improvement+2.6#80

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#170
First Shot+4.2#71
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#353
Layup/Dunks-0.9#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#15
Freethrows-4.5#362
Improvement+5.6#11

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#309
First Shot-5.1#326
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#121
Layups/Dunks-0.7#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#327
Freethrows+1.9#63
Improvement-3.0#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 20.7% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.1% 11.9% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 10.5% 17.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.5% 15.8% 17.5%
First Round12.8% 14.0% 11.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 30 - 81 - 9
Quad 413 - 914 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 195   @ Drexel L 56-73 32%     0 - 1 -16.4 -11.3 -6.1
  Nov 12, 2024 108   @ Syracuse L 72-74 17%     0 - 2 +4.0 +1.5 +2.6
  Nov 18, 2024 103   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 15%     0 - 3 -16.2 -21.0 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 251   @ Harvard L 67-78 43%     0 - 4 -13.5 -3.1 -10.9
  Nov 27, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-59 18%     1 - 4 +18.4 +11.7 +8.8
  Nov 29, 2024 141   Appalachian St. L 50-72 30%     1 - 5 -20.9 -9.3 -15.8
  Nov 30, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. L 78-82 33%     1 - 6 -3.9 +9.8 -13.9
  Dec 04, 2024 164   Cornell L 57-84 44%     1 - 7 -29.7 -17.4 -13.8
  Dec 08, 2024 212   @ Northeastern L 75-78 34%     1 - 8 -3.1 +2.0 -5.1
  Dec 11, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 67-78 2%     1 - 9 +8.5 +2.7 +5.2
  Dec 15, 2024 230   Vermont W 65-60 57%     2 - 9 -1.2 +0.9 -1.5
  Dec 22, 2024 259   Iona L 73-79 64%     2 - 10 -13.9 +1.3 -15.3
  Jan 02, 2025 287   Army W 71-59 69%     3 - 10 1 - 0 +2.5 -5.2 +8.0
  Jan 05, 2025 232   @ Bucknell L 60-66 39%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -7.3 -5.9 -2.0
  Jan 08, 2025 279   Lehigh W 67-62 68%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -4.1 -8.1 +4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 300   Boston University W 87-50 72%     5 - 11 3 - 1 +26.6 +15.3 +13.5
  Jan 15, 2025 283   @ Navy W 73-66 50%     6 - 11 4 - 1 +2.7 +0.7 +2.2
  Jan 18, 2025 298   @ Lafayette W 90-67 53%     7 - 11 5 - 1 +17.9 +18.3 -0.2
  Jan 20, 2025 232   Bucknell W 87-80 58%     8 - 11 6 - 1 +0.6 +11.3 -10.8
  Jan 25, 2025 247   @ American L 77-81 42%     8 - 12 6 - 2 -6.3 +7.4 -13.9
  Jan 29, 2025 287   @ Army L 72-84 50%     8 - 13 6 - 3 -16.4 +1.2 -18.3
  Feb 01, 2025 298   Lafayette L 61-76 72%     8 - 14 6 - 4 -25.2 -7.6 -19.3
  Feb 03, 2025 279   @ Lehigh L 68-94 49%     8 - 15 6 - 5 -30.0 -0.5 -31.3
  Feb 08, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 82-68 78%     9 - 15 7 - 5 +1.5 +3.2 -1.7
  Feb 12, 2025 317   @ Holy Cross W 87-65 59%     10 - 15 8 - 5 +15.4 +16.6 +0.4
  Feb 15, 2025 300   @ Boston University L 91-93 2OT 54%     10 - 16 8 - 6 -7.3 +6.0 -13.0
  Feb 19, 2025 283   Navy W 79-75 69%     11 - 16 9 - 6 -5.4 +6.5 -11.7
  Feb 23, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 317   Holy Cross W 76-69 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 247   American W 71-68 64%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 10.0 10.5 1st
2nd 6.7 15.1 21.7 2nd
3rd 4.8 28.0 5.1 37.8 3rd
4th 2.2 16.5 8.5 27.2 4th
5th 1.6 1.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.0 22.3 43.5 30.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 33.2% 10.0    0.3 2.8 4.9 2.0
11-7 1.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 0.3 2.8 5.0 2.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 30.2% 23.4% 23.4% 15.9 0.6 6.5 23.1
11-7 43.5% 19.5% 19.5% 16.0 8.5 35.1
10-8 22.3% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 3.5 18.8
9-9 4.0% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.7 3.4
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 19.1 80.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.1% 100.0% 15.9 8.2 91.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.2%
Lose Out 1.9%