UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#150
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#50
Pace69.4#174
Improvement-0.6#257

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#121
First Shot-0.9#210
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#50
Layup/Dunks-1.8#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#345
Freethrows+7.6#2
Improvement-0.9#313

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#221
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#101
Layups/Dunks-5.4#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#62
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement+0.3#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 12.4% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 78.7% 85.3% 64.9%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 81.2% 69.1%
Conference Champion 14.0% 16.4% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.2% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.9% 12.3% 7.9%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 214   Georgia Southern W 92-84 72%     1 - 0 +2.4 +6.5 -4.9
  Nov 15, 2024 314   @ South Carolina Upstate W 89-85 71%     2 - 0 -1.4 +3.3 -5.1
  Nov 19, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 66-84 3%     2 - 1 +3.8 +3.5 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 189   Colgate W 72-67 68%    
  Nov 29, 2024 115   Sam Houston St. L 76-77 50%    
  Nov 30, 2024 200   Appalachian St. W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 03, 2024 145   @ East Carolina L 68-71 38%    
  Dec 07, 2024 195   Marshall W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 232   @ Howard W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 18, 2024 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 21, 2024 177   UNC Asheville W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 02, 2025 134   Towson W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 257   Campbell W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 261   @ Monmouth W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 131   @ Hofstra L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 16, 2025 148   Northeastern W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 20, 2025 208   William & Mary W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 23, 2025 116   @ College of Charleston L 76-82 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 310   Hampton W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 30, 2025 272   @ N.C. A&T W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 285   Stony Brook W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 213   @ Delaware W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 116   College of Charleston W 80-79 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   Elon W 80-71 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 208   @ William & Mary L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 310   @ Hampton W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 257   @ Campbell W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 213   Delaware W 79-73 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 4.3 2.9 1.1 0.3 14.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 5.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.1 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.1 0.9 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.1 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.2 1.5 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.2 0.3 6.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.1 10.5 12.1 12.8 12.4 10.9 8.6 5.7 3.0 1.1 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.5% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 93.9% 2.9    2.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.2% 4.3    2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.5% 3.7    1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.3% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 8.2 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 48.6% 41.9% 6.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.5%
17-1 1.1% 41.9% 40.3% 1.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.7%
16-2 3.0% 34.4% 34.1% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 0.4%
15-3 5.7% 26.9% 26.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.2 0.1%
14-4 8.6% 22.3% 22.3% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 6.7
13-5 10.9% 18.0% 18.0% 13.3 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.9
12-6 12.4% 12.8% 12.8% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.8
11-7 12.8% 8.3% 8.3% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.7
10-8 12.1% 5.7% 5.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.4
9-9 10.5% 3.0% 3.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.1
8-10 8.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.0
7-11 6.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-12 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 89.1 0.1%