IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.3	#157
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.0	#311
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.9	#147

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.7	#190

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.4%	13.2%	7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.4	13.2	14.0

.500 or above	72.1%	79.4%	55.1%
.500 or above in Conference	77.5%	81.6%	68.0%
Conference Champion	15.0%	17.5%	9.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.8%	1.2%	3.1%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
First Round	11.2%	13.1%	6.9%
Second Round	1.6%	2.0%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	5 - 6	5 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 4	18 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	209	Georgia Southern	W	75-69	70%
Nov 15, 2024	330	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	72-65	74%
Nov 19, 2024	2	@ Kansas	L	61-83	3%
Nov 27, 2024	171	Colgate	W	69-65	62%
Nov 29, 2024	119	Sam Houston St.	W	69-68	51%
Nov 30, 2024	139	Appalachian St.	W	69-67	56%
Dec 03, 2024	137	@ East Carolina	L	65-69	36%
Dec 07, 2024	194	Marshall	W	75-70	66%
Dec 14, 2024	249	@ Howard	W	72-71	55%
Dec 18, 2024	206	Florida Gulf Coast	W	69-63	69%
Dec 21, 2024	186	UNC Asheville	W	73-69	64%
Jan 02, 2025	124	Towson	W	64-63	53%
Jan 04, 2025	301	Campbell	W	73-63	81%
Jan 09, 2025	216	@ Monmouth	W	70-69	50%
Jan 11, 2025	155	@ Hofstra	L	66-69	40%
Jan 16, 2025	220	Northeastern	W	71-65	70%
Jan 18, 2025	247	William & Mary	W	72-65	73%
Jan 23, 2025	117	@ College of Charleston	L	71-77	32%
Jan 25, 2025	322	Hampton	W	78-65	85%
Jan 30, 2025	312	@ N.C. A&T	W	73-68	67%
Feb 01, 2025	260	Stony Brook	W	73-65	75%
Feb 06, 2025	187	@ Delaware	L	68-70	44%
Feb 08, 2025	154	@ Drexel	L	64-67	40%
Feb 13, 2025	117	College of Charleston	W	74-73	51%
Feb 15, 2025	288	Elon	W	75-65	79%
Feb 20, 2025	247	@ William & Mary	W	69-68	55%
Feb 22, 2025	322	@ Hampton	W	75-68	71%
Feb 27, 2025	301	@ Campbell	W	70-66	64%
Mar 01, 2025	187	Delaware	W	71-67	64%
Projected Record						17 - 12	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	1.1	3.2	4.4	3.7	1.9	0.4		15.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.8	4.2	4.5	2.1	0.4	0.0			13.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.7	4.7	4.2	1.5	0.2	0.0				12.3	3rd
4th										0.1	1.2	4.3	4.0	1.1	0.1						10.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.8	4.2	1.2	0.1							10.0	5th
6th									0.3	2.5	4.0	1.5	0.1								8.4	6th
7th								0.1	1.6	3.8	1.6	0.2									7.4	7th
8th							0.0	0.8	3.1	2.0	0.2	0.0									6.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.0	2.2	0.4	0.0										5.0	9th
10th					0.0	0.2	1.3	2.0	0.6	0.0											4.1	10th
11th					0.1	0.7	1.4	0.7	0.1												2.9	11th
12th			0.0	0.0	0.5	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0												2.4	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1														1.6	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0														0.8	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.4	2.5	3.8	5.7	7.9	9.4	10.9	12.1	11.9	10.7	9.3	6.7	4.2	1.9	0.4			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	98.9%	1.9		1.8	0.1
16-2	89.3%	3.7		3.0	0.7	0.0
15-3	65.7%	4.4		2.6	1.5	0.3	0.0
14-4	34.7%	3.2		1.2	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	10.6%	1.1		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.0%	15.0		9.2	4.2	1.3	0.3	0.1		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		65.8%	58.9%	6.8%	10.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.1		16.7%
17-1	1.9%		46.2%	44.5%	1.7%	11.6					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.0		3.1%
16-2	4.2%		37.1%	36.8%	0.3%	12.5											0.0	0.1	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0		2.6		0.5%
15-3	6.7%		26.8%	26.8%	0.0%	12.9												0.0	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	4.9		0.1%
14-4	9.3%		21.2%	21.2%		13.5												0.0	0.2	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	7.3
13-5	10.7%		17.2%	17.2%		13.9													0.1	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.0	8.8
12-6	11.9%		11.9%	11.9%		14.3													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.1	10.5
11-7	12.1%		7.0%	7.0%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	11.2
10-8	10.9%		4.1%	4.1%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.4
9-9	9.4%		1.8%	1.8%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.3
8-10	7.9%		0.8%	0.8%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.9
7-11	5.7%		1.2%	1.2%		15.9																0.0	0.1	5.6
6-12	3.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
5-13	2.5%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
4-14	1.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.4%	11.3%	0.1%	13.4			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	2.1	3.2	3.0	1.8	0.6	88.6		0.1%