UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#116
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#113
Pace64.5#282
Improvement+1.9#106

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot+1.2#131
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#56
Layup/Dunks-0.8#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#285
Freethrows+3.7#21
Improvement+1.8#101

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#186
First Shot+0.4#171
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#268
Layups/Dunks+1.1#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#137
Freethrows-1.0#262
Improvement+0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 31.4% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 25.7% 33.6% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.6% 31.4% 25.8%
Second Round2.0% 2.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Away) - 67.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 38 - 48 - 5
Quad 415 - 323 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 248   Georgia Southern W 92-84 83%     1 - 0 +0.6 +6.3 -6.5
  Nov 15, 2024 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 89-85 88%     2 - 0 -5.8 +0.9 -7.2
  Nov 19, 2024 19   @ Kansas L 66-84 8%     2 - 1 +0.7 +4.8 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2024 239   Colgate L 59-72 82%     2 - 2 -19.8 -9.9 -12.0
  Nov 29, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. W 69-60 69%     3 - 2 +6.6 +0.2 +7.2
  Nov 30, 2024 141   Appalachian St. W 76-61 66%     4 - 2 +13.6 +17.6 -1.8
  Dec 03, 2024 150   @ East Carolina W 67-53 48%     5 - 2 +17.2 -2.6 +20.3
  Dec 07, 2024 190   Marshall W 78-69 75%     6 - 2 +4.8 -0.2 +4.5
  Dec 14, 2024 305   @ Howard L 83-88 79%     6 - 3 -10.8 +1.9 -12.6
  Dec 18, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-66 73%     7 - 3 +9.4 +11.7 -0.9
  Dec 21, 2024 184   UNC Asheville W 85-74 74%     8 - 3 +7.2 +15.9 -7.7
  Jan 02, 2025 157   Towson L 61-65 OT 68%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -6.1 -7.9 +1.6
  Jan 04, 2025 183   Campbell W 77-69 74%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +4.2 +11.8 -6.8
  Jan 09, 2025 255   @ Monmouth W 64-55 70%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +6.3 -5.1 +12.2
  Jan 11, 2025 227   @ Hofstra L 63-66 65%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -4.0 +2.8 -7.3
  Jan 16, 2025 212   Northeastern W 80-72 78%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +2.8 +9.9 -6.6
  Jan 20, 2025 216   William & Mary W 85-74 79%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +5.5 +6.6 -1.3
  Jan 23, 2025 143   @ College of Charleston W 85-83 47%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +5.6 +13.4 -7.8
  Jan 25, 2025 250   Hampton W 83-62 83%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +13.6 +12.1 +2.8
  Jan 30, 2025 316   @ N.C. A&T W 83-59 81%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +17.4 +13.5 +5.4
  Feb 01, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 80-70 91%     16 - 5 8 - 2 -1.9 +3.2 -4.7
  Feb 06, 2025 244   @ Delaware W 77-67 68%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +8.0 +4.1 +4.6
  Feb 08, 2025 195   @ Drexel W 81-79 2OT 59%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +2.6 +0.1 +2.3
  Feb 13, 2025 143   College of Charleston W 86-66 66%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +18.5 +16.8 +2.6
  Feb 15, 2025 175   Elon L 70-81 73%     19 - 6 11 - 3 -14.4 +7.6 -24.0
  Feb 22, 2025 250   @ Hampton W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 24, 2025 216   @ William & Mary W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 183   @ Campbell W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 244   Delaware W 84-74 83%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 10.6 14.2 25.7 1st
2nd 1.3 20.5 28.4 5.3 55.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.1 8.5 14.6 3rd
4th 0.5 2.6 0.2 3.4 4th
5th 0.7 0.2 0.9 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.3 10.2 30.0 39.0 19.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 72.7% 14.2    5.0 9.2
14-4 27.3% 10.6    1.1 6.7 2.8 0.1
13-5 2.9% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 25.7% 25.7 6.1 15.9 3.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 19.5% 33.3% 33.3% 12.9 1.8 3.7 1.0 0.0 13.0
14-4 39.0% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.7 5.5 6.1 0.6 26.2
13-5 30.0% 26.6% 26.6% 13.9 0.1 1.9 4.8 1.2 0.0 22.0
12-6 10.2% 20.4% 20.4% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 8.1
11-7 1.3% 14.7% 14.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 13.5 2.6 11.4 13.2 2.4 0.0 70.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 12.9 27.0 56.9 15.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.1%
Lose Out 0.3%