UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#109
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#88
Pace62.2#352
Improvement-0.6#228

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#93
First Shot-0.3#186
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#26
Layup/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#213
Freethrows+1.3#103
Improvement+0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#151
First Shot-0.2#177
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#139
Layups/Dunks+5.0#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#327
Freethrows+3.3#24
Improvement-0.6#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 25.9% 20.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 95.1% 91.2%
Conference Champion 33.9% 37.3% 27.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.9% 25.9% 20.0%
Second Round2.8% 3.3% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 417 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 121 @Kent St. L 77-86 42%     0 - 1 -3.2 +2.1 -5.1
  Sat, Nov 15 274 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 88%     1 - 1 +4.1 +7.4 -1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 266 East Carolina W 85-60 87%     2 - 1 +16.4 +12.8 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 21 288 @Radford W 81-73 78%     3 - 1 +3.9 +5.9 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 26 246 SE Louisiana W 70-57 86%     4 - 1 +5.3 +4.9 +2.0
  Fri, Nov 28 197 Navy W 87-57 81%     5 - 1 +24.7 +18.9 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 29 359 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 96%     6 - 1 +8.8 +7.6 +1.5
  Wed, Dec 3 172 Marshall W 70-69 78%     7 - 1 -3.1 +3.5 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 6 319 @Louisiana W 70-63 82%     8 - 1 +1.1 +3.7 -1.9
  Sat, Dec 13 211 @Valparaiso W 69-65 65%    
  Sat, Dec 20 313 Howard W 79-64 92%    
  Mon, Dec 29 299 @N.C. A&T W 75-66 78%    
  Wed, Dec 31 267 Drexel W 73-61 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 208 Hampton W 74-64 82%    
  Thu, Jan 8 228 @Northeastern W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 221 @Stony Brook W 72-67 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 Campbell W 78-68 83%    
  Thu, Jan 22 119 @William & Mary L 76-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 208 @Hampton W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 125 @Towson L 65-67 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 119 William & Mary W 79-75 63%    
  Mon, Feb 9 175 @College of Charleston W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Feb 12 184 Elon W 79-70 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 139 Hofstra W 71-66 68%    
  Thu, Feb 19 207 Monmouth W 75-65 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 217 @Campbell W 75-71 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 299 N.C. A&T W 78-63 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 175 College of Charleston W 75-67 76%    
  Tue, Mar 3 184 @Elon W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.1 8.0 9.6 7.2 3.2 0.7 33.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.9 7.6 5.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.2 3.4 0.8 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.6 8.7 11.8 14.6 15.7 14.4 11.5 7.5 3.2 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.8% 3.2    3.1 0.1
16-2 96.6% 7.2    6.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 83.7% 9.6    7.1 2.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 55.8% 8.0    4.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.4% 4.1    1.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.8% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.9% 33.9 23.0 8.3 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 54.0% 51.6% 2.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4.8%
17-1 3.2% 46.5% 46.4% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.7 0.2%
16-2 7.5% 43.0% 43.0% 12.1 0.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3
15-3 11.5% 34.2% 34.2% 0.0% 12.4 0.1 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.5 0.0%
14-4 14.4% 31.2% 31.2% 12.7 0.1 1.7 2.3 0.4 9.9
13-5 15.7% 26.0% 26.0% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 11.6
12-6 14.6% 21.0% 21.0% 13.2 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 11.6
11-7 11.8% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 10.2
10-8 8.7% 10.8% 10.8% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 7.8
9-9 5.6% 6.7% 6.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.3
8-10 3.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
7-11 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.3 9.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.4 3.7 1.2 4.9 12.3 8.6 60.5 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 4.5% 11.0 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 10.0% 11.0 10.0