Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#180
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#185
Pace63.0#316
Improvement-1.3#253

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#149
First Shot+0.1#171
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#129
Layup/Dunks+2.9#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#86
Freethrows-5.0#364
Improvement+2.1#82

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#228
First Shot-3.0#267
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#104
Layups/Dunks+1.1#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#344
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-3.4#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 11.5% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 98.8% 100.0% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.0% 7.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.7% 11.5% 8.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 44 - 10
Quad 413 - 418 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 154   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 34%     0 - 1 -5.9 -1.4 -5.2
  Nov 08, 2024 64   @ TCU L 51-67 13%     0 - 2 -5.1 -8.3 +1.7
  Nov 13, 2024 106   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 40%     0 - 3 -7.5 -4.4 -3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 74   @ Drake L 61-63 14%     0 - 4 +8.3 -0.2 +8.3
  Nov 22, 2024 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-54 71%     1 - 4 +13.1 +11.1 +6.1
  Nov 23, 2024 212   Northeastern L 55-59 66%     1 - 5 -9.2 -13.6 +4.0
  Nov 24, 2024 268   Florida International W 60-59 75%     2 - 5 -7.1 -8.2 +1.1
  Nov 30, 2024 105   @ Florida Atlantic W 80-78 23%     3 - 5 +8.6 +15.0 -6.2
  Dec 04, 2024 159   Furman L 73-76 55%     3 - 6 -5.4 +2.3 -7.8
  Dec 08, 2024 72   @ LSU L 71-80 14%     3 - 7 +1.4 +5.9 -4.7
  Dec 18, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-79 27%     3 - 8 -7.6 +1.3 -10.4
  Dec 28, 2024 218   @ Richmond W 75-57 48%     4 - 8 +17.4 +6.6 +11.9
  Jan 02, 2025 348   @ West Georgia W 79-68 81%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +0.8 +3.7 -2.6
  Jan 04, 2025 231   @ Queens L 83-92 51%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -10.3 +8.8 -19.2
  Jan 09, 2025 134   North Alabama W 75-70 50%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +3.8 +3.0 +1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 344   Central Arkansas W 77-71 90%     7 - 9 3 - 1 -8.8 -1.3 -7.4
  Jan 16, 2025 348   West Georgia W 82-60 90%     8 - 9 4 - 1 +6.7 -1.7 +7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 231   Queens W 60-47 70%     9 - 9 5 - 1 +6.6 -7.0 +15.9
  Jan 23, 2025 340   @ Bellarmine W 77-61 78%     10 - 9 6 - 1 +6.9 +5.1 +3.8
  Jan 25, 2025 191   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-81 43%     10 - 10 6 - 2 -3.3 +3.9 -7.3
  Jan 29, 2025 193   @ Jacksonville W 83-79 43%     11 - 10 7 - 2 +4.7 +16.7 -11.8
  Feb 01, 2025 349   Stetson W 82-56 90%     12 - 10 8 - 2 +10.6 +9.5 +4.3
  Feb 06, 2025 191   Eastern Kentucky L 74-92 63%     12 - 11 8 - 3 -22.4 -2.4 -20.2
  Feb 08, 2025 266   @ North Florida W 84-70 57%     13 - 11 9 - 3 +11.0 +4.8 +6.1
  Feb 13, 2025 276   @ Austin Peay L 60-73 61%     13 - 12 9 - 4 -16.9 -2.0 -17.6
  Feb 15, 2025 101   @ Lipscomb L 68-82 22%     13 - 13 9 - 5 -7.0 +1.7 -9.4
  Feb 18, 2025 193   Jacksonville W 72-56 63%     14 - 13 10 - 5 +11.6 +10.8 +3.3
  Feb 20, 2025 349   @ Stetson W 83-80 81%     15 - 13 11 - 5 -7.3 +9.5 -16.6
  Feb 24, 2025 266   North Florida W 83-76 76%    
  Feb 26, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 80-67 90%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 6.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.9 28.4 29.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 22.4 33.9 56.3 3rd
4th 1.7 5.8 7.5 4th
5th 0.8 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.7 29.1 68.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.7% 6.0    0.0 0.5 4.3 1.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 6.0% 6.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 1.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 68.3% 11.9% 11.9% 14.4 0.6 3.9 3.5 0.1 60.1
12-6 29.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.3 26.7
11-7 2.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.5
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.6 4.2 5.4 0.5 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 14.4 7.4 48.5 42.9 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.0%
Lose Out 1.2%