Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#168
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#189
Pace62.8#328
Improvement+1.7#109

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#184
First Shot-0.7#198
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#148
Layup/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#91
Freethrows-4.9#364
Improvement+1.1#113

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#182
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#92
Layups/Dunks+1.5#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#333
Freethrows+1.3#91
Improvement+0.6#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 12.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 87.1% 90.5% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 97.6%
Conference Champion 15.9% 18.0% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round12.0% 12.7% 8.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 414 - 318 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 31%     0 - 1 -4.2 -1.6 -3.3
  Nov 08, 2024 62   @ TCU L 51-67 14%     0 - 2 -4.6 -8.9 +2.8
  Nov 13, 2024 96   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 39%     0 - 3 -6.3 -5.0 -1.5
  Nov 16, 2024 80   @ Drake L 61-63 17%     0 - 4 +7.9 +0.7 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-54 73%     1 - 4 +13.2 +12.0 +5.2
  Nov 23, 2024 200   Northeastern L 55-59 66%     1 - 5 -8.6 -13.1 +4.1
  Nov 24, 2024 241   Florida International W 60-59 74%     2 - 5 -6.1 -8.1 +2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 108   @ Florida Atlantic W 80-78 27%     3 - 5 +8.2 +15.4 -7.0
  Dec 04, 2024 151   Furman L 73-76 56%     3 - 6 -4.8 +3.2 -8.2
  Dec 08, 2024 63   @ LSU L 71-80 14%     3 - 7 +2.4 +6.2 -4.0
  Dec 18, 2024 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-79 33%     3 - 8 -8.7 +1.3 -11.5
  Dec 28, 2024 209   @ Richmond W 75-57 47%     4 - 8 +18.3 +8.8 +10.6
  Jan 02, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 79-68 81%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +1.2 +4.1 -2.5
  Jan 04, 2025 210   @ Queens L 83-92 48%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -8.7 +10.2 -19.0
  Jan 09, 2025 163   North Alabama W 75-70 59%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +2.4 +2.8 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 77-71 90%     7 - 9 3 - 1 -8.2 -0.5 -7.6
  Jan 16, 2025 349   West Georgia W 82-60 91%     8 - 9 4 - 1 +6.7 -1.5 +7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 210   Queens W 60-47 68%     9 - 9 5 - 1 +7.8 -5.8 +15.9
  Jan 23, 2025 353   @ Bellarmine W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 248   @ Eastern Kentucky W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 185   @ Jacksonville L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 348   Stetson W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 06, 2025 248   Eastern Kentucky W 76-69 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 79-77 55%    
  Feb 13, 2025 298   @ Austin Peay W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 91   @ Lipscomb L 65-74 18%    
  Feb 18, 2025 185   Jacksonville W 68-65 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 24, 2025 245   North Florida W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 78-62 93%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.3 4.4 0.9 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 7.3 13.4 5.9 0.4 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 6.2 11.6 4.2 0.2 23.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.8 8.8 3.5 0.3 18.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 2.1 0.2 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.9 11.3 18.4 22.9 20.9 13.4 4.7 0.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
16-2 92.2% 4.4    3.0 1.3 0.0
15-3 54.5% 7.3    2.3 4.0 0.9 0.0
14-4 14.6% 3.1    0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 1.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 6.7 6.6 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.9% 27.3% 27.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
16-2 4.7% 21.0% 21.0% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 3.7
15-3 13.4% 19.5% 19.5% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.5 10.8
14-4 20.9% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 17.6
13-5 22.9% 10.8% 10.8% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 20.4
12-6 18.4% 7.6% 7.6% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 17.0
11-7 11.3% 6.4% 6.4% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 10.6
10-8 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.1 0.2 4.7
9-9 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.0 4.2 0.6 88.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.3 8.3 58.3 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%