Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#192
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#232
Pace61.7#345
Improvement+0.3#162

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#180
First Shot-1.4#214
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#127
Layup/Dunks+2.2#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#64
Freethrows-5.9#364
Improvement+1.6#61

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot-1.8#233
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#106
Layups/Dunks+0.7#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#338
Freethrows+1.7#69
Improvement-1.4#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 13.4% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 54.2% 68.1% 43.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.4% 92.6% 87.1%
Conference Champion 13.3% 15.9% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.2% 0.7% 1.6%
First Round10.8% 13.1% 9.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 74 - 12
Quad 413 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 34%     0 - 1 -6.1 -1.0 -5.8
  Nov 08, 2024 88   @ TCU L 51-67 16%     0 - 2 -6.6 -8.9 +0.9
  Nov 13, 2024 89   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 32%     0 - 3 -5.6 -3.1 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2024 67   @ Drake L 61-63 12%     0 - 4 +9.5 +2.1 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-54 69%     1 - 4 +13.4 +12.7 +4.8
  Nov 23, 2024 160   Northeastern L 55-59 57%     1 - 5 -7.2 -11.2 +3.5
  Nov 24, 2024 248   Florida International W 60-59 73%     2 - 5 -6.8 -8.7 +2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 85   @ Florida Atlantic W 80-78 15%     3 - 5 +11.5 +16.2 -4.5
  Dec 04, 2024 128   Furman L 73-76 48%     3 - 6 -3.9 +4.6 -8.6
  Dec 08, 2024 56   @ LSU L 71-80 10%     3 - 7 +3.6 +6.5 -3.1
  Dec 18, 2024 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-79 29%     3 - 8 -8.5 +1.5 -11.5
  Dec 28, 2024 216   @ Richmond L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 270   @ Queens W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 182   North Alabama W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 16, 2025 341   West Georgia W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 270   Queens W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 23, 2025 343   @ Bellarmine W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 220   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 205   @ Jacksonville L 66-68 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 344   Stetson W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 06, 2025 220   Eastern Kentucky W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 188   @ North Florida L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 273   @ Austin Peay W 64-62 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   @ Lipscomb L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 18, 2025 205   Jacksonville W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 20, 2025 344   @ Stetson W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 24, 2025 188   North Florida W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 343   Bellarmine W 77-64 89%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 4.2 2.8 1.1 0.2 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.1 6.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.9 5.4 1.4 0.1 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.7 4.4 0.8 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.3 9.0 12.1 14.8 16.1 14.5 11.4 7.0 3.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.4% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 85.6% 2.8    2.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 60.4% 4.2    2.3 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.4% 3.6    1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 8.1% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 7.0 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 42.4% 42.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 32.6% 32.6% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8
16-2 3.3% 28.8% 28.8% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3
15-3 7.0% 24.8% 24.8% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.2
14-4 11.4% 18.5% 18.5% 14.3 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 9.3
13-5 14.5% 14.3% 14.3% 14.8 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.3 12.4
12-6 16.1% 10.8% 10.8% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 14.4
11-7 14.8% 7.6% 7.6% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 13.6
10-8 12.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 11.5
9-9 9.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.7
8-10 5.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 5.2
7-11 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.9 2.5 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 23.1 76.9