Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#216
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#304
Pace61.7#348
Improvement+1.2#59

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#240
First Shot-4.0#290
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#91
Layup/Dunks+7.0#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#234
Freethrows-6.2#359
Improvement-0.5#269

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#185
First Shot-2.3#252
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#69
Layups/Dunks-2.1#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#265
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement+1.7#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 12.2% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 41.2% 49.5% 25.8%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 82.5% 72.8%
Conference Champion 12.9% 15.2% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.8%
First Four2.5% 2.3% 2.9%
First Round9.5% 11.3% 6.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 412 - 515 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 170   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 31%     0 - 1 -6.6 -2.6 -4.7
  Nov 08, 2024 60   @ TCU L 51-67 9%     0 - 2 -4.2 -10.1 +4.4
  Nov 13, 2024 114   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 37%     0 - 3 -8.4 -6.3 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 107   @ Drake L 61-63 18%     0 - 4 +5.2 -0.4 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-63 65%    
  Nov 23, 2024 148   Northeastern L 66-67 49%    
  Nov 24, 2024 273   Florida International W 72-66 71%    
  Nov 30, 2024 75   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-79 11%    
  Dec 04, 2024 135   Furman L 68-69 45%    
  Dec 08, 2024 48   @ LSU L 62-77 8%    
  Dec 18, 2024 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-72 29%    
  Dec 28, 2024 197   @ Richmond L 62-66 36%    
  Jan 02, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 299   @ Queens W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 187   North Alabama W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 16, 2025 353   West Georgia W 74-60 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 299   Queens W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 23, 2025 335   @ Bellarmine W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 226   @ Jacksonville L 62-65 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 326   Stetson W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   @ North Florida L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 13, 2025 231   @ Austin Peay L 63-65 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 151   @ Lipscomb L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 226   Jacksonville W 65-62 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 326   @ Stetson W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 24, 2025 175   North Florida W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 335   Bellarmine W 71-60 83%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 4.0 2.4 1.0 0.2 12.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.1 3.9 0.8 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 5.7 8.3 10.7 13.0 13.4 13.4 11.4 8.2 5.3 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.5% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 93.3% 2.4    2.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.3% 4.0    2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.0% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.6% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 7.3 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 44.6% 44.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 41.2% 41.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.6% 34.4% 34.4% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7
15-3 5.3% 27.4% 27.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 3.9
14-4 8.2% 22.3% 22.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 6.3
13-5 11.4% 16.0% 16.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 9.6
12-6 13.4% 11.7% 11.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 11.8
11-7 13.4% 8.4% 8.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 12.2
10-8 13.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 12.3
9-9 10.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.4
8-10 8.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 8.1
7-11 5.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.3 4.3 89.5 0.0%