Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#107
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#68
Pace68.7#198
Improvement-0.7#277

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#144
First Shot+1.9#118
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#219
Layup/Dunks-0.6#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows+3.4#41
Improvement-0.7#292

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#87
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#156
Layups/Dunks-5.0#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#29
Freethrows+2.2#73
Improvement+0.0#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 23.6% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 2.3% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.9 11.3 12.2
.500 or above 86.7% 95.7% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 91.3% 81.8%
Conference Champion 24.4% 34.1% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round16.7% 23.1% 14.6%
Second Round4.0% 6.6% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 2.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Neutral) - 24.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 37 - 48 - 8
Quad 410 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 182   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 78%     1 - 0 +11.0 +3.9 +9.2
  Nov 16, 2024 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 82%     2 - 0 -3.7 -4.5 +1.0
  Nov 21, 2024 37   Miami (FL) L 70-77 24%    
  Nov 30, 2024 214   Georgia Southern W 84-74 82%    
  Dec 04, 2024 276   @ Valparaiso W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 17, 2024 66   @ Kansas St. L 66-73 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 252   Green Bay W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 29, 2024 141   Belmont W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 01, 2025 157   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 05, 2025 109   Murray St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 08, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 300   Evansville W 80-65 90%    
  Jan 15, 2025 172   Illinois St. W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 180   @ Indiana St. W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 22, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 78-65 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 162   @ Missouri St. W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 118   Northern Iowa W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 04, 2025 109   @ Murray St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 180   Indiana St. W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 12, 2025 172   @ Illinois St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 93   Bradley W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 23, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 300   @ Evansville W 77-68 77%    
  Mar 02, 2025 162   Missouri St. W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.3 6.1 5.8 4.0 1.9 0.5 24.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 5.2 2.7 0.7 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.1 3.9 1.2 0.2 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.1 6.0 7.8 9.6 11.2 11.5 11.5 10.7 8.9 6.5 4.0 1.9 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.0
18-2 98.9% 4.0    3.7 0.3 0.0
17-3 88.7% 5.8    4.8 1.0 0.0
16-4 68.2% 6.1    3.8 2.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 40.0% 4.3    1.8 1.8 0.6 0.0
14-6 13.9% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.4% 24.4 16.9 5.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 80.9% 61.3% 19.6% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 50.6%
19-1 1.9% 65.7% 50.5% 15.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 30.6%
18-2 4.0% 46.6% 40.9% 5.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.1 9.7%
17-3 6.5% 36.6% 34.8% 1.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 2.8%
16-4 8.9% 29.0% 28.8% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.3 0.3%
15-5 10.7% 24.3% 24.2% 0.0% 12.3 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.1 0.0%
14-6 11.5% 18.2% 18.2% 12.5 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.2 9.4
13-7 11.5% 14.0% 14.0% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.9
12-8 11.2% 9.8% 9.8% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.1
11-9 9.6% 5.4% 5.4% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.1
10-10 7.8% 3.7% 3.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
9-11 6.0% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
8-12 4.1% 1.9% 1.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
7-13 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.9% 16.2% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 3.0 7.3 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 83.1 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.1 12.5 9.4 12.5 37.5 9.4 6.3 3.1 6.3 3.1