Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#193
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.5#344
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#168
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 3.9% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 40.7% 44.5% 19.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.0% 40.7% 23.0%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.7% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 12.3% 23.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.5% 3.9% 1.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 48 - 313 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 323   Tennessee Martin W 78-67 85%    
  Nov 07, 2024 234   @ North Dakota St. L 65-66 46%    
  Nov 12, 2024 121   Ohio L 67-68 46%    
  Nov 22, 2024 99   McNeese St. L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 04, 2024 144   @ Belmont L 68-73 31%    
  Dec 07, 2024 314   Pacific W 73-63 80%    
  Dec 15, 2024 94   Saint Louis L 68-73 35%    
  Dec 18, 2024 306   Northern Illinois W 72-63 78%    
  Dec 22, 2024 172   @ Cornell L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 29, 2024 203   Illinois-Chicago W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 02, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 61-67 30%    
  Jan 05, 2025 140   Southern Illinois W 63-62 52%    
  Jan 08, 2025 228   @ Evansville L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 112   Northern Iowa L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 15, 2025 106   @ Drake L 62-71 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   Missouri St. W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 21, 2025 132   Indiana St. L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 59-70 18%    
  Jan 29, 2025 144   Belmont W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 203   @ Illinois-Chicago L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 12, 2025 106   Drake L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   @ Indiana St. L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 19, 2025 92   Bradley L 62-67 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 60-66 32%    
  Mar 02, 2025 228   Evansville W 69-64 65%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.8 11th
12th 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.0 7.9 9.2 10.4 10.7 10.2 9.5 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 86.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-4 65.7% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 35.6% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 69.8% 45.0% 24.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.2%
18-2 0.3% 39.1% 30.3% 8.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.7%
17-3 0.7% 35.1% 33.2% 1.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 2.9%
16-4 1.4% 22.7% 22.3% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.6%
15-5 2.5% 18.0% 18.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-6 3.7% 14.7% 14.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.1
13-7 5.1% 10.4% 10.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.6
12-8 6.6% 6.4% 6.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2
11-9 8.1% 4.1% 4.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.8
10-10 9.5% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.3
9-11 10.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1
8-12 10.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 10.6
7-13 10.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-15 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-16 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 2.2% 2.2
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 96.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%