Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#179
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#203
Pace68.3#175
Improvement+2.6#81

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#210
First Shot-2.2#240
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#121
Layup/Dunks+2.3#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#268
Freethrows+0.0#170
Improvement+1.9#94

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#168
First Shot+1.2#137
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#271
Layups/Dunks-2.9#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#57
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement+0.7#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.0% 22.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round1.2% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 36 - 106 - 16
Quad 46 - 212 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 143   College of Charleston L 80-90 42%     0 - 1 -9.0 -0.2 -7.7
  Nov 14, 2024 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 19%     0 - 2 +1.1 +6.5 -5.1
  Nov 18, 2024 136   North Dakota St. W 69-44 51%     1 - 2 +23.8 -4.4 +30.0
  Nov 22, 2024 4   @ Florida L 68-93 2%     1 - 3 -0.2 +4.1 -3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 123   Louisiana Tech L 79-85 OT 38%     1 - 4 -3.9 -6.6 +3.7
  Nov 26, 2024 191   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 53%     1 - 5 -6.8 -5.8 -0.9
  Dec 03, 2024 94   Bradley L 60-83 36%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -20.4 -10.4 -10.7
  Dec 07, 2024 343   Southern Indiana W 73-70 90%     2 - 6 -11.8 -1.3 -10.2
  Dec 14, 2024 276   @ Austin Peay W 65-60 61%     3 - 6 +1.1 -2.6 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 96   High Point L 81-94 37%     3 - 7 -10.5 +2.3 -12.5
  Dec 29, 2024 100   @ Northern Iowa L 67-78 22%     3 - 8 0 - 2 -3.9 +1.4 -5.9
  Jan 01, 2025 237   Evansville L 53-68 71%     3 - 9 0 - 3 -21.6 -18.2 -4.0
  Jan 05, 2025 127   @ Illinois St. L 54-85 30%     3 - 10 0 - 4 -26.7 -19.5 -7.8
  Jan 08, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 86-90 32%     3 - 11 0 - 5 -0.3 +10.2 -10.5
  Jan 11, 2025 219   Missouri St. W 88-78 OT 68%     4 - 11 1 - 5 +4.3 +7.9 -4.3
  Jan 15, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. W 73-51 49%     5 - 11 2 - 5 +21.4 +6.8 +16.1
  Jan 18, 2025 100   Northern Iowa W 73-49 38%     6 - 11 3 - 5 +26.1 +12.5 +17.3
  Jan 22, 2025 156   Murray St. L 64-74 54%     6 - 12 3 - 6 -12.1 -4.0 -8.8
  Jan 25, 2025 147   @ Illinois-Chicago W 89-85 34%     7 - 12 4 - 6 +7.3 +14.2 -7.1
  Jan 28, 2025 238   @ Valparaiso W 79-75 53%     8 - 12 5 - 6 +2.4 +4.1 -1.7
  Feb 01, 2025 74   Drake L 65-75 28%     8 - 13 5 - 7 -4.8 +3.7 -9.9
  Feb 05, 2025 237   @ Evansville W 68-59 52%     9 - 13 6 - 7 +7.5 +4.1 +4.3
  Feb 08, 2025 147   Illinois-Chicago W 79-67 53%     10 - 13 7 - 7 +10.2 +3.9 +6.2
  Feb 12, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 64-78 21%     10 - 14 7 - 8 -6.3 +2.8 -10.9
  Feb 15, 2025 140   Belmont L 68-73 52%     10 - 15 7 - 9 -6.4 -5.0 -1.7
  Feb 19, 2025 156   Murray St. L 60-62 54%     10 - 16 7 - 10 -4.1 -7.3 +3.1
  Feb 22, 2025 238   Valparaiso W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 127   Illinois St. L 72-73 50%    
  Mar 02, 2025 203   @ Indiana St. L 78-79 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.6 0.6 4th
5th 1.6 11.8 13.4 5th
6th 11.6 3.5 15.0 6th
7th 0.2 19.5 0.1 19.8 7th
8th 13.5 8.8 22.3 8th
9th 15.4 0.2 15.6 9th
10th 8.0 4.7 12.7 10th
11th 0.6 0.6 11th
12th 12th
Total 8.6 33.8 41.6 16.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 16.0% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.1 0.3 15.6
9-11 41.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.2 0.5 40.9
8-12 33.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.4 33.4
7-13 8.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.5 1.0 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.7 26.3 73.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 4.9%