Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#132
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.8#39
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 14.3% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.1 11.6 12.6
.500 or above 67.9% 82.7% 59.5%
.500 or above in Conference 65.4% 75.7% 59.5%
Conference Champion 11.1% 16.4% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.2% 5.9%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round9.8% 14.0% 7.3%
Second Round2.2% 3.6% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Neutral) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 11
Quad 410 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   Florida Atlantic L 75-79 36%    
  Nov 12, 2024 316   SIU Edwardsville W 80-67 89%    
  Nov 16, 2024 240   @ Ball St. W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 22, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 79-64 91%    
  Nov 25, 2024 328   @ Southern Indiana W 81-72 78%    
  Nov 29, 2024 134   Arkansas St. W 79-78 51%    
  Nov 30, 2024 210   Iona W 77-72 65%    
  Dec 01, 2024 221   Tarleton St. W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 07, 2024 207   @ Missouri St. W 75-74 56%    
  Dec 18, 2024 136   Murray St. W 74-70 62%    
  Dec 29, 2024 31   @ Ohio St. L 68-81 14%    
  Jan 01, 2025 92   Bradley L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 228   @ Evansville W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 08, 2025 242   @ Valparaiso W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 144   Belmont W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 15, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 106   Drake W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 21, 2025 193   @ Illinois St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 112   Northern Iowa W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 207   Missouri St. W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 203   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 05, 2025 242   Valparaiso W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 08, 2025 106   @ Drake L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 11, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 193   Illinois St. W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 228   Evansville W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 144   @ Belmont L 79-81 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 71-73 42%    
  Mar 02, 2025 140   Southern Illinois W 73-69 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.8 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.4 7.8 9.0 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.7 8.1 6.6 4.8 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.8% 1.6    1.5 0.1
17-3 84.3% 2.7    2.0 0.6 0.0
16-4 59.1% 2.8    1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.8% 2.2    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.6% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 7.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 77.0% 50.0% 27.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.1%
19-1 0.6% 69.0% 48.1% 20.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 40.3%
18-2 1.6% 52.9% 41.4% 11.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 19.6%
17-3 3.2% 38.5% 33.8% 4.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 7.1%
16-4 4.8% 29.9% 28.3% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 2.2%
15-5 6.6% 22.1% 22.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.1 0.1%
14-6 8.1% 16.4% 16.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.8
13-7 9.7% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.5 0.0%
12-8 10.3% 8.0% 8.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 9.5
11-9 10.4% 4.5% 4.5% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9
10-10 9.9% 2.7% 2.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.6
9-11 9.0% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9
8-12 7.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-15 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-16 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.9% 9.3% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 90.1 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.6 10.0 20.0 18.0 42.0 10.0