Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#203
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#208
Pace78.6#11
Improvement+2.8#73

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#151
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#319
Layup/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#23
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement+0.1#182

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#256
First Shot-4.9#323
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#50
Layups/Dunks-4.5#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#127
Freethrows-1.7#293
Improvement+2.7#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.1 15.8
.500 or above 1.5% 5.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 19.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 64 - 14
Quad 48 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   Florida Atlantic L 64-97 27%     0 - 1 -28.9 -19.2 -4.7
  Nov 12, 2024 234   SIU Edwardsville L 72-77 66%     0 - 2 -11.5 -2.4 -9.1
  Nov 16, 2024 261   @ Ball St. W 94-84 53%     1 - 2 +7.1 +5.4 +0.5
  Nov 22, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 97-61 92%     2 - 2 +17.7 +14.0 +2.4
  Nov 25, 2024 343   @ Southern Indiana L 77-87 76%     2 - 3 -19.7 -7.4 -11.4
  Nov 29, 2024 97   Arkansas St. L 81-86 25%     2 - 4 +0.0 +7.5 -7.2
  Nov 30, 2024 259   Iona W 83-80 62%     3 - 4 -2.4 +7.4 -9.9
  Dec 01, 2024 273   Tarleton St. W 87-71 65%     4 - 4 +9.7 +16.1 -6.3
  Dec 07, 2024 219   @ Missouri St. W 80-77 44%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +2.4 +10.1 -7.7
  Dec 18, 2024 156   Murray St. W 84-74 49%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +7.9 +10.3 -2.4
  Dec 29, 2024 33   @ Ohio St. L 83-103 5%     6 - 5 -3.8 +8.8 -10.3
  Jan 01, 2025 94   Bradley L 89-90 OT 32%     6 - 6 2 - 1 +1.6 +3.9 -2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 237   @ Evansville W 66-62 47%     7 - 6 3 - 1 +2.5 -3.8 +6.4
  Jan 08, 2025 238   @ Valparaiso L 95-98 OT 48%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -4.6 +3.8 -7.9
  Jan 11, 2025 140   Belmont L 79-84 47%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -6.4 -5.1 -0.9
  Jan 15, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 65-118 18%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -45.3 -10.8 -29.3
  Jan 18, 2025 74   Drake L 53-71 24%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -12.8 -12.6 -1.9
  Jan 21, 2025 127   @ Illinois St. L 81-85 27%     7 - 11 3 - 6 +0.3 +1.6 -1.1
  Jan 25, 2025 100   Northern Iowa L 56-74 34%     7 - 12 3 - 7 -15.9 -14.3 -2.3
  Jan 29, 2025 219   Missouri St. W 72-67 63%     8 - 12 4 - 7 -0.7 +3.8 -4.1
  Feb 01, 2025 147   @ Illinois-Chicago W 88-83 30%     9 - 12 5 - 7 +8.3 +9.2 -1.3
  Feb 05, 2025 238   Valparaiso W 80-62 67%     10 - 12 6 - 7 +11.3 +5.0 +6.9
  Feb 08, 2025 74   @ Drake L 81-85 OT 12%     10 - 13 6 - 8 +6.3 +8.9 -2.4
  Feb 11, 2025 100   @ Northern Iowa L 73-88 19%     10 - 14 6 - 9 -7.9 +6.5 -14.9
  Feb 15, 2025 127   Illinois St. W 85-76 44%     11 - 14 7 - 9 +8.2 +9.9 -1.5
  Feb 19, 2025 237   Evansville L 74-79 67%     11 - 15 7 - 10 -11.6 +1.5 -13.2
  Feb 22, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 86-92 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 156   @ Murray St. L 73-78 30%    
  Mar 02, 2025 179   Southern Illinois W 79-78 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.7 0.7 4th
5th 1.1 3.0 4.1 5th
6th 7.8 1.6 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 13.9 0.2 14.3 7th
8th 13.5 4.3 17.8 8th
9th 22.5 0.1 22.6 9th
10th 22.7 8.2 30.9 10th
11th 0.4 0.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 23.0 44.5 27.1 5.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 5.4% 1.5% 1.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
9-11 27.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.2 0.1 26.9
8-12 44.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 44.2
7-13 23.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 22.9
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 14.0%