Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#198
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#234
Pace78.9#14
Improvement-1.5#283

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#257
First Shot+0.1#173
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#346
Layup/Dunks+6.9#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#244
Freethrows-1.9#296
Improvement-1.4#293

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#138
First Shot+2.4#97
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#284
Layups/Dunks-2.2#256
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#42
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement-0.1#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 19.6% 22.4% 7.8%
.500 or above in Conference 23.2% 25.0% 15.7%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 17.6% 25.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round1.5% 1.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 80.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 35 - 85 - 15
Quad 47 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 181 @Charlotte L 76-92 35%     0 - 1 -14.6 +3.3 -18.1
  Mon, Nov 10 230 @SIU Edwardsville W 64-55 45%     1 - 1 +8.0 -8.1 +16.0
  Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62-100 1%     1 - 2 -12.5 -3.1 -6.1
  Wed, Nov 19 193 Louisiana Tech W 60-51 60%     2 - 2 +3.9 -14.0 +17.7
  Sat, Nov 22 310 Ball St. W 70-52 80%     3 - 2 +6.7 -1.8 +9.9
  Wed, Nov 26 193 @Louisiana Tech L 73-75 37%     3 - 3 -1.1 +6.0 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 28 334 Alcorn St. L 74-81 78%     3 - 4 -17.4 -12.2 -4.4
  Sun, Dec 7 314 Southern Indiana W 84-75 81%    
  Sun, Dec 14 219 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-80 44%    
  Thu, Dec 18 115 Bradley L 72-75 40%    
  Sun, Dec 21 92 @Illinois St. L 69-80 15%    
  Mon, Dec 29 90 Belmont L 76-81 31%    
  Thu, Jan 1 98 @Northern Iowa L 62-73 16%    
  Sun, Jan 4 124 @Drake L 68-76 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 265 Evansville W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 92 Illinois St. L 72-77 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 111 @Murray St. L 77-86 20%    
  Wed, Jan 21 115 @Bradley L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 124 Drake L 71-73 43%    
  Tue, Jan 27 204 @Illinois-Chicago L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 211 Valparaiso W 74-70 63%    
  Tue, Feb 3 265 @Evansville W 73-72 50%    
  Mon, Feb 9 143 Southern Illinois L 77-78 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 111 Murray St. L 80-83 38%    
  Sun, Feb 15 211 @Valparaiso L 71-73 43%    
  Wed, Feb 18 98 Northern Iowa L 65-70 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 90 @Belmont L 73-84 16%    
  Wed, Feb 25 143 @Southern Illinois L 74-81 29%    
  Sun, Mar 1 204 Illinois-Chicago W 78-75 61%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.8 1.1 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.6 1.5 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.7 5.2 1.8 0.1 15.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.0 5.2 1.6 0.2 17.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 5.6 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 16.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.4 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.1 11th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.0 8.3 10.9 12.6 13.5 12.2 10.8 8.7 6.0 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 83.3% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 77.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 51.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 22.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 19.3% 19.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 15.0% 15.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.3% 9.4% 9.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.3% 9.0% 9.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-8 3.9% 5.9% 5.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-9 6.0% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
10-10 8.7% 2.5% 2.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5
9-11 10.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.6
8-12 12.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.1
7-13 13.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.5
6-14 12.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.5
5-15 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.9
4-16 8.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.3
3-17 5.0% 5.0
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 98.4 0.0%