Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.2 201
Results Rating -5.1 245
Consistency 0.14 115
Pace 70.7 118
Improvement +2.5 92

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 219 B- D+ D D- A-
Defense C 187 C C+ D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 28 B 64% 56 +6.4 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 341 C+ 40% 109 -4.0 347
Three Pointers 46% 89 D+ 31% 291 +0.6 159
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.8 8 C+ +1.0 125
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 86
Second Chance D 25.2% 318 C 1.03 184 D+ 0.26 300
Opponents' Steals D- 11.4% 332
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 206
Turnovers D 18.8% 309
Freethrows D- 0.25 335 D- 68% 330 D- 0.17 347
Total Offense C- -1.9 219

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B+ 61% 26 C- 12.2% 251
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 86 C 5.1% 195
Three Pointers B- 88% 109 D 1.4% 309
Total A- 67% 17 D+ 6.6% 293


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 119 C+ 56% 114 +0.5 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 91 F 47% 359 +2.9 351
Three Pointers 36% 315 B 31% 66 -3.8 32
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 137 C -0.4 166
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 159
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 272 B 0.92 41 C+ 0.30 149
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 249
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 286
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 279
Freethrows B 0.26 49 C 72% 170 B 0.19 56
Total Defense C -0.3 187

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 41% 40 C- 9.5% 227
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 36 D+ 2.8% 302
Three Pointers B- 80% 85 C- 0.6% 222
Total A- 45% 17 C- 4.8% 240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 179 16.9 100
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 206 0.20 299
Consistency 0.14 272 0.12 131
Improvement +3.0 50 -0.5 215

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 214 202 185
Results Rating Rank 262 257 227
Conference Record 4 - 16 4 - 16 4 - 16
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 32 - 94 - 17
Quad 46 - 410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 170 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 34% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C- -0 C+ D C F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 256 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 51% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +7 F+ -10 F+ C- F A+ +16 A A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 1 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D+ -8 D+ -3 B D+ F C -1 B- F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 221 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 67% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +2 F -16 F+ F B- A+ +18 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 22 291 Ball St. W 70 - 52 79% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +7 C- -2 B- D- D A +11 A- C A-
 Wed, Nov 26 221 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 44% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 A F B+ D- -7 D F C
 Fri, Nov 28 351 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 85% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -21 F -17 F C- F+ C- -3 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 336 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 88% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ F B- B+ +6 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 274 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 54% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F B- +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 110 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 40% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -2 C- F A- D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 99 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 16% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C F+ -9 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 68 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 22% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 A- D+ C- A- +8 A+ B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 88 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 14% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C +0 B- +5 A+ F B- D -5 C- F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 207 @Drake L 72 - 74 39% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -1 C+ +3 C A+ F D -5 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 295 Evansville L 69 - 72 80% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -14 F -13 F C C+ C -1 F+ A B
 Wed, Jan 14 99 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 33% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ F A+ F -15 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 124 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 23% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C +2 C+ +3 C A- C- C -1 C+ D C-
 Wed, Jan 21 110 @Bradley L 68 - 75 21% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D -6 A F F B+ +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 207 Drake L 62 - 76 62% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -19 F -20 D+ F F C+ +1 B- A D
 Tue, Jan 27 114 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 21% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +4 B +6 A+ A+ F C- -2 F+ A D+
 Sat, Jan 31 156 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 52% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -7 D -5 B- F C C -1 B C D
 Tue, Feb 3 295 @Evansville W 84 - 63 60% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +16 A+ +17 A+ A- B- B- +2 B- C D
 Mon, Feb 9 121 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 42% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -15 F+ -9 D B F+ D -5 D- B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 124 Murray St. L 72 - 74 43% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C- -2 C- -1 A F F+ C -1 B- F A+
 Sun, Feb 15 156 @Valparaiso L 75 - 76 30% -3  13% 8 - 17 3 - 13 C+ +2 A +13 A- A A- F -11 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 88 Northern Iowa L 60 - 81 29% -3  35% 8 - 18 3 - 14 F+ -18 D -5 B- C F F -14 F B F+
 Sat, Feb 21 68 @Belmont L 70 - 87 10% -10  6% 8 - 19 3 - 15 D+ -5 D -6 C+ D- C C+ +1 B- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 121 @Southern Illinois L 55 - 66 22% -9  15% 8 - 20 3 - 16 D+ -5 F -13 D- C- F A- +8 A B+ F
 Sun, Mar 1 114 Illinois-Chicago W 79 - 63 40% +6  59% 9 - 20 4 - 16 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ F F A- +8 B- A+ A-
 Thu, Mar 5 156 Valparaiso L 70 - 73 40%
Totals 9 - 21 4 - 16 -2 C- -2 A+ C+ A- C +0 D+ D- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B C+ D+ C+ 45% 21% 46% A- B- D C D+ D D- D- D- C C+ F B C 41% 23% 36% C C D+ B C+ D+ B C B
1.06 64% 40% 31% +1 +2 1.08 25% 1.0 .26 19% .25 68% .17 1.09 56% 47% 31% 0 0 1.01 32% 0.9 .30 15% .26 72% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C- B B- F+ C 44% 10% 46% A C+ F+ B D C B C B F C A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D+ F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A F F 37% 8% 55% A F+ B- D- C- F C B C+ A+ C A- A+ A 29% 45% 25% A+ A D- A+ A+ B+ B- B+ B-
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +1 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D+ C F D+ C 43% 6% 51% A+ B C+ F D+ F B+ F C+ C C- D B- B 53% 4% 44% D- B- F F F C+ B- A- B+
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- F+ F C- F B- F B- F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ A- C B- D D- A C-
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. C- B A+ F+ C+ 42% 8% 50% A B- B- F D- D F A+ F+ A A+ F A+ B+ 34% 30% 36% A A- F A C A- A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A A F A F B+ F A+ F D- C- F A+ F+ 43% 33% 24% A- D D+ F F C A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- F+ A- A- A C- D- F C+ F 46% 20% 33% D- F F A+ C+ A+ D- A C-
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana C+ A- F B B 52% 9% 39% A- B+ F+ F F B- F A+ F B+ A- B- C- C- 33% 25% 41% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ D- A F B-
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F F B- A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D- F F F D- F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley D+ C+ F C+ D+ 36% 11% 53% A C- F F+ F A- A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C+ 29% 34% 37% A+ B- C- F+ D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C A+ F A F+ F D- A+ D- 42% 32% 26% B D B+ A+ A F B+ F C+
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% A- A- C- D D+ C- A+ F C A- A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A+ C- A+ B B+ C+ F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F B- F F F D C F A+ C+ 65% 12% 22% F C- F D+ F C- D+ B C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake C+ B F D D 39% 5% 57% A+ C B A+ A+ F A A+ A+ D B F D F 33% 29% 37% B+ F D- B C- C- A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -2 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B F F 47% 13% 40% A F C+ C C C+ C+ D- C- C B+ F+ F F+ 38% 23% 39% D F+ A+ F A B A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A+ A+ C+ F F A+ A+ B+ A+ F C- F F F 33% 29% 37% A- F+ B F D- F F D F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -2 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D- B- C- 58% 22% 20% B+ C C- A+ A- C- D F F C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F C+ D C- D C- D A- C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- A- 40% 18% 42% A- A F F F F F D+ F B+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +7 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D 33% 17% 50% B D+ F+ F F F C+ F D+ C+ F A A- C+ 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B A+ A+ D+ A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F C- C D+ F F 45% 24% 31% C F+ C A+ A D+ D+ D+ D
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F F F C B F D+ C A+ F A+ A- 51% 29% 20% F B F A C D F+ B+ D+
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B A- A- B- F F F B- A F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ B- D- A C D D- A C-
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F+ C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D D- A+ B F+ C- D D+ D D+ D- C- D- 46% 29% 25% C- D- D- A+ B+ C- A C A-
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A 38% 10% 52% A- A C F F F+ A+ F A+ C D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% B- B- F C F A+ F B D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29
Feb
15		 Valparaiso A A+ F F B+ 55% 14% 31% A A- B- A+ A A- F+ D+ F+ F F C- F F 27% 36% 36% B+ F F B F C D- A+ A-
1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17 1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19
Feb
18		 Northern Iowa D D+ A+ D+ C 49% 9% 43% A B- A F C F C+ F D F B- F F F 41% 13% 46% D+ F A+ F B F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15 1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03
Feb
21		 Belmont D A F F+ C- 43% 9% 48% A C+ F B+ D- C F A+ F C+ F+ F A+ C+ 34% 20% 46% A B- A A+ A+ F A- F C+
0.96 68% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 18% .13 88% .12 1.19 71% 75% 29% +8 0 1.18 21% 0.4 .09 12% .23 87% .20
Feb
25		 Southern Illinois F C F F D- 29% 18% 53% C D- D B C- F D- F F A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 30% D A A- C+ B+ F B F D+
0.78 57% 22% 27% -9 0 0.84 23% 1.1 .26 25% .23 50% .11 0.93 69% 21% 12% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.9 .21 11% .26 88% .22
Mar
1		 Illinois-Chicago B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 26% 17% 57% D+ A+ F F F F F+ C+ D- A- B F A+ A- 64% 13% 22% F B- D- A+ A+ A- F C- F
1.17 83% 38% 52% +22 0 1.45 25% 0.7 .17 25% .24 75% .18 0.93 52% 50% 20% -7 +3 0.93 41% 0.3 .11 22% .50 73% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 100.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.5 99.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.9%
Lose Out 59.6%