Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
82 Drake 30.0%   12   11 - 2 3 - 2 22 - 6 14 - 6 +6.6      +2.7 102 +3.9 77 55.8 363 +12.1 45 +4.4 4
94 Bradley 22.0%   12 - 3 4 - 1 22 - 8 14 - 6 +5.4      +3.1 92 +2.4 104 65.9 250 +7.9 73 +6.9 1
103 Northern Iowa 14.8%   8 - 7 3 - 2 17 - 13 12 - 8 +4.2      +3.4 88 +0.7 151 64.2 296 +0.4 159 +1.3 8
126 Murray St. 9.4%   8 - 7 3 - 2 17 - 13 12 - 8 +2.4      +2.0 126 +0.5 157 62.7 332 +2.5 128 +5.0 2
140 Belmont 6.2%   10 - 5 3 - 2 18 - 12 11 - 9 +1.0      +3.5 86 -2.5 244 76.3 31 +4.2 111 +3.8 6
142 Illinois St. 5.2%   9 - 6 2 - 3 17 - 13 10 - 10 +1.0      +2.4 113 -1.4 215 62.5 337 +2.0 139 -3.0 10
144 Illinois-Chicago 5.8%   8 - 5 3 - 2 16 - 12 11 - 9 +0.8      +2.2 120 -1.4 216 70.5 128 +4.4 105 +4.7 3
157 Indiana St. 4.2%   7 - 7 3 - 2 14 - 15 10 - 10 +0.1      +2.9 98 -2.7 255 79.1 10 -1.4 190 +2.3 7
204 Valparaiso 1.9%   8 - 6 3 - 2 14 - 15 9 - 11 -2.1      +1.1 147 -3.1 265 69.6 165 +0.8 155 +4.4 5
216 Missouri St. 0.8%   5 - 9 0 - 5 10 - 19 5 - 15 -3.0      -2.3 232 -0.7 197 61.8 344 -3.9 232 -17.3 12
244 Southern Illinois 0.4%   3 - 11 0 - 5 8 - 21 5 - 15 -4.6      -2.9 243 -1.8 225 69.8 155 -7.6 292 -16.1 11
254 Evansville 0.5%   5 - 10 3 - 2 9 - 21 7 - 13 -5.0      -6.6 339 +1.6 124 66.9 235 -5.5 258 +0.8 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 2.2 45.1 24.6 13.2 7.1 4.4 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bradley 2.6 37.9 23.1 14.0 9.3 6.3 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 4.1 14.0 15.8 16.5 14.8 12.7 9.4 7.0 4.8 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
Murray St. 4.3 12.0 14.7 16.0 14.8 12.4 10.5 8.1 5.6 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.1
Belmont 5.0 6.8 10.8 13.5 14.5 13.9 11.8 9.8 8.5 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.2
Illinois St. 6.7 2.2 4.1 6.3 8.9 10.8 12.9 14.3 14.3 13.0 8.0 4.1 1.1
Illinois-Chicago 5.1 6.5 10.0 13.1 13.9 13.7 12.8 10.7 8.6 6.0 3.2 1.3 0.3
Indiana St. 6.2 3.1 5.5 8.3 10.6 12.0 13.3 14.1 12.7 11.3 6.2 2.5 0.4
Valparaiso 6.9 1.6 3.6 6.1 8.0 10.2 12.1 14.1 14.6 13.8 9.7 4.9 1.2
Missouri St. 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 5.4 9.9 17.8 30.1 30.2
Southern Illinois 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.7 7.4 14.3 27.1 43.4
Evansville 8.9 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.3 8.5 12.3 17.9 25.6 17.3 5.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.8 10.4 15.5 19.3 19.1 15.0 8.0 2.3
Bradley 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.5 8.1 12.3 16.6 18.3 16.1 11.6 6.3 2.5 0.5
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.1 7.2 11.4 15.8 17.6 16.3 12.6 7.9 3.4 1.0 0.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 4.9 8.3 12.5 16.3 17.0 15.5 11.3 6.9 3.0 1.0 0.2
Belmont 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.8 7.4 11.3 14.8 17.3 16.2 12.8 7.8 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1
Illinois St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.4 9.7 14.0 17.0 16.9 14.5 9.6 5.6 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.9 7.6 12.0 15.8 17.1 15.8 12.3 8.0 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Indiana St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 7.9 12.3 16.1 18.0 15.3 11.7 7.4 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 9 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.4 10.9 15.1 17.0 16.9 12.8 8.9 5.0 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Missouri St. 5 - 15 0.3 2.1 5.7 11.3 15.9 17.4 17.2 13.3 8.6 4.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 5 - 15 0.9 3.9 9.2 14.4 18.0 17.5 14.5 10.7 6.1 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Evansville 7 - 13 1.2 5.6 11.8 17.4 19.3 16.9 12.9 7.9 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 45.1% 30.0 11.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bradley 37.9% 24.8 9.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 14.0% 7.3 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Murray St. 12.0% 6.1 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Belmont 6.8% 2.9 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 2.2% 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 6.5% 2.8 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 3.1% 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0
Evansville 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 30.0% 29.0% 1.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 11.4 15.5 1.1 0.0 70.0 1.5%
Bradley 22.0% 21.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5 13.5 4.3 0.5 0.0 78.0 0.1%
Northern Iowa 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.1 5.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 85.2 0.0%
Murray St. 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.1 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 90.6 0.0%
Belmont 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 93.8 0.0%
Illinois St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 94.8 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 94.3 0.0%
Indiana St. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 95.8 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 98.1 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 30.0% 0.9% 29.5% 6.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 22.0% 0.1% 22.0% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 14.8% 0.1% 14.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 6.2% 0.0% 6.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 0.0% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 99.0 0.6
2nd Round 15.5% 0.2 84.5 15.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0