Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 Bradley 26.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +6.3      +2.6 105 +3.8 75 65.9 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
106 Drake 18.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 13 - 7 +4.5      +1.9 120 +2.6 97 69.0 155 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 Northern Iowa 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +3.6      +1.7 127 +1.9 115 66.4 245 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 Indiana St. 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +2.0      +2.2 113 -0.2 174 74.8 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
136 Murray St. 8.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +1.5      +1.2 137 +0.4 154 62.7 332 0.0 1 0.0 1
140 Southern Illinois 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 10 +1.2      -0.6 192 +1.8 119 62.4 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Belmont 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 10 +1.0      +0.7 152 +0.3 156 76.1 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 Illinois St. 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 12 -1.5      -1.5 221 0.0 168 61.5 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 Illinois-Chicago 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 8 - 12 -2.1      -1.6 224 -0.5 182 69.8 134 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 Missouri St. 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 12 -2.4      -3.0 270 +0.6 147 69.2 149 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 Evansville 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 -3.3      -2.7 258 -0.6 186 70.5 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 Valparaiso 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 -3.9      -1.7 232 -2.2 247 69.1 150 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Bradley 3.3 32.3 18.8 13.4 9.7 7.2 5.7 4.4 3.2 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.4
Drake 3.8 24.3 17.8 13.8 10.8 8.6 7.1 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.6 0.9
Northern Iowa 4.6 16.2 14.6 12.9 11.1 10.1 8.9 7.3 6.0 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.4
Indiana St. 5.3 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.1 10.1 9.5 8.7 7.7 6.5 5.4 4.1 2.7
Murray St. 5.7 9.2 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.2 9.7 9.3 8.3 7.5 6.5 5.2 3.5
Southern Illinois 5.8 8.1 9.6 10.8 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.4 8.3 7.5 6.6 5.3 3.9
Belmont 5.8 8.1 9.5 10.7 10.4 10.3 9.8 9.5 8.4 7.7 6.7 5.3 3.7
Illinois St. 7.4 3.3 4.6 6.2 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.5 10.2 11.3 11.1 10.8 9.2
Illinois-Chicago 7.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.7 9.4 10.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.1
Missouri St. 7.6 2.7 4.0 5.9 6.6 7.6 8.4 9.7 10.4 10.6 11.3 11.4 11.3
Evansville 8.1 1.9 3.2 4.4 5.5 6.6 7.8 8.9 9.9 11.2 12.4 13.9 14.3
Valparaiso 8.7 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.5 8.0 9.4 11.3 13.2 15.9 19.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Bradley 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.1 4.4 5.8 7.6 9.0 10.5 11.4 11.7 10.7 9.3 6.7 3.7 1.4
Drake 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 8.8 10.1 10.9 11.1 10.5 9.2 7.1 4.8 2.5 0.9
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.5 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.3 10.6 10.5 9.7 8.5 6.8 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.3
Indiana St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.4 7.8 9.0 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.7 8.1 6.6 4.8 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2
Murray St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.8 6.7 8.4 9.8 10.2 10.2 9.9 8.7 7.2 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 3.9 5.7 7.1 8.6 9.7 10.4 10.3 9.9 8.8 7.1 5.6 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1
Belmont 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.3 8.6 9.7 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.5 7.2 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1
Illinois St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.0 7.9 9.2 10.4 10.7 10.2 9.5 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 8 - 12 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.6 6.5 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.0 7.6 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.6 6.5 8.4 9.7 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.1 7.6 6.2 4.9 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evansville 8 - 12 0.6 1.8 3.6 5.8 8.0 9.6 10.6 10.9 10.5 9.3 8.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.8 2.7 5.3 7.5 9.6 10.7 11.1 11.0 10.0 8.4 7.0 5.4 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Bradley 32.3% 23.8 6.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drake 24.3% 17.3 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 16.2% 10.8 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 11.1% 7.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 9.2% 5.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 8.1% 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Belmont 8.1% 4.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 3.3% 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.0% 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 2.7% 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 1.4% 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Bradley 26.9% 24.4% 2.5% 12   0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.6 5.8 8.7 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 73.1 3.3%
Drake 18.5% 17.2% 1.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 3.1 6.1 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 81.5 1.6%
Northern Iowa 14.5% 13.2% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.7 4.9 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 85.5 1.5%
Indiana St. 9.9% 9.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 90.1 0.7%
Murray St. 8.3% 8.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 91.7 0.3%
Southern Illinois 7.9% 7.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 92.1 0.3%
Belmont 7.7% 7.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 92.3 0.3%
Illinois St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 96.5 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 96.8 0.1%
Missouri St. 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 97.2 0.0%
Evansville 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 98.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 98.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Bradley 26.9% 1.3% 26.3% 9.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Drake 18.5% 0.8% 18.1% 5.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 14.5% 0.7% 14.2% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 9.9% 0.4% 9.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 8.3% 0.3% 8.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 7.9% 0.3% 7.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 7.7% 0.3% 7.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.5% 0.1% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.8% 0.2% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.5 0.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 94.6 4.9 0.1
2nd Round 25.9% 0.3 74.1 25.3 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0 0.1
Elite Eight 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1