Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
72 Drake 36.6%   12   6 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 6 15 - 5 +8.0      +2.8 99 +5.1 46 60.8 353 +17.3 19 0.0 1
78 Bradley 24.1%   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +6.6      +5.3 53 +1.3 127 65.9 267 +10.4 63 0.0 1
106 Murray St. 13.9%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +4.0      +3.2 88 +0.8 145 64.2 310 +3.7 118 0.0 1
132 Belmont 6.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +1.8      +2.2 114 -0.4 187 76.1 34 +3.2 123 0.0 1
139 Northern Iowa 6.5%   2 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +1.5      +0.8 149 +0.7 146 66.4 254 -2.5 212 0.0 1
149 Southern Illinois 4.9%   1 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 10 +0.5      -1.6 216 +2.2 106 72.7 88 -6.8 278 0.0 1
169 Missouri St. 3.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 -0.4      -2.3 233 +1.9 110 67.2 235 +2.3 133 0.0 1
180 Illinois St. 3.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -0.9      -0.1 180 -0.8 199 64.2 311 -0.1 171 0.0 1
183 Illinois-Chicago 2.9%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -1.1      +0.8 150 -1.9 229 75.6 36 +1.2 146 0.0 1
190 Indiana St. 2.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 12 -1.3      +2.0 123 -3.2 283 78.2 18 -4.7 246 0.0 1
246 Valparaiso 0.5%   3 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 14 -4.8      -0.7 193 -4.1 303 69.1 178 -7.1 284 0.0 1
249 Evansville 0.5%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -4.8      -2.5 240 -2.4 255 70.5 136 -5.3 259 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Drake 2.1 50.3 22.5 11.6 6.6 3.9 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bradley 2.9 30.0 25.0 16.0 10.4 6.8 4.6 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1
Murray St. 4.2 15.1 17.9 15.8 13.2 10.3 8.7 6.5 4.8 3.5 2.3 1.5 0.6
Belmont 5.2 7.1 11.1 13.2 13.3 12.3 11.4 9.3 7.5 6.0 4.4 2.9 1.5
Northern Iowa 5.8 5.8 8.8 10.8 12.0 11.6 11.0 10.0 9.3 7.5 6.5 4.7 2.1
Southern Illinois 6.2 4.0 7.5 9.9 10.9 11.5 10.9 10.9 9.9 8.6 7.1 5.4 3.4
Missouri St. 6.5 3.0 5.8 8.9 10.1 11.3 11.1 11.3 10.5 9.4 8.4 6.3 4.0
Illinois St. 7.2 2.1 4.2 6.5 8.2 9.4 10.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 10.7 9.1 5.8
Illinois-Chicago 7.3 2.0 4.2 5.9 7.9 9.1 10.5 11.4 10.7 11.0 11.0 9.1 7.1
Indiana St. 7.5 1.4 3.0 5.4 7.2 9.0 10.4 11.4 11.9 12.0 11.8 9.5 7.0
Valparaiso 9.5 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.4 5.0 6.7 8.3 11.3 15.3 19.6 25.5
Evansville 9.3 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.0 5.1 7.3 9.2 11.6 14.7 19.3 23.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Drake 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.4 6.9 9.3 12.3 14.7 15.2 14.2 10.4 5.9 1.8
Bradley 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.7 10.3 12.7 14.0 13.9 12.5 8.9 5.3 2.5 0.6
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.0 7.1 9.6 11.4 12.3 12.5 11.8 9.6 6.6 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.1
Belmont 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.5 6.0 8.1 10.5 12.2 13.1 11.8 10.9 8.5 5.7 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Northern Iowa 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.3 7.5 9.9 11.4 12.2 11.9 10.8 9.1 6.5 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.1 6.3 8.7 10.4 12.2 12.3 11.6 10.2 7.8 5.9 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.2 9.8 11.5 12.3 12.5 11.3 9.1 7.3 4.8 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.2 6.7 9.0 11.7 12.1 12.8 11.4 9.4 7.5 5.0 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 4.7 7.0 9.2 11.2 12.1 12.7 11.0 9.6 7.4 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.7 7.4 10.1 11.9 13.3 12.6 11.5 9.4 6.5 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 0.6 2.8 6.0 9.3 12.3 13.8 13.8 12.0 9.9 7.6 5.2 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 6 - 14 0.7 2.3 5.0 8.5 11.9 13.2 13.5 12.3 10.3 8.3 5.8 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Drake 50.3% 38.6 9.4 2.0 0.3 0.0
Bradley 30.0% 20.9 7.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 15.1% 9.1 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
Belmont 7.1% 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Northern Iowa 5.8% 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 4.0% 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 3.0% 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 2.1% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 2.0% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Drake 36.6% 32.3% 4.4% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.9 12.6 14.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 63.4 6.5%
Bradley 24.1% 23.1% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 5.5 13.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 75.9 1.4%
Murray St. 13.9% 13.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1 7.3 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 86.1 0.2%
Belmont 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 93.1 0.0%
Northern Iowa 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.3 93.6 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 95.1 0.0%
Missouri St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 96.6 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 97.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 97.1 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 97.6 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Drake 36.6% 2.6% 35.3% 11.8% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bradley 24.1% 0.7% 23.7% 6.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 13.9% 0.2% 13.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 6.9% 0.1% 6.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 6.5% 0.2% 6.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.9% 0.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 3.4% 0.1% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.0% 0.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 2.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.4 5.6 0.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 95.8 3.8 0.0
2nd Round 24.7% 0.3 75.3 24.3 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0