Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 Belmont 21.3%   12   7 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +5.9      +2.5 112 +3.4 78 75.2 49 +7.0 86 0.0 1
92 Illinois St. 20.6%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +5.8      +3.2 94 +2.5 94 66.7 261 +5.8 101 0.0 1
98 Northern Iowa 17.7%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +5.2      -0.4 170 +5.6 41 60.9 356 +5.3 105 0.0 1
111 Murray St. 11.6%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 12 - 8 +3.7      +3.5 87 +0.2 162 76.6 36 +4.4 113 0.0 1
115 Bradley 10.9%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 8 +3.4      +0.5 149 +3.0 86 67.9 221 +0.2 166 0.0 1
124 Drake 8.5%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +2.4      +0.9 144 +1.5 123 62.9 339 -2.1 199 0.0 1
143 Southern Illinois 5.7%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +1.2      +0.9 143 +0.2 161 70.4 159 +0.8 157 0.0 1
198 Indiana St. 1.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 -2.4      -3.4 257 +1.0 138 78.9 14 -4.1 234 0.0 1
204 Illinois-Chicago 1.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -2.6      -2.0 225 -0.6 179 72.0 120 -7.5 285 0.0 1
211 Valparaiso 1.0%   5 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -3.3      -4.0 275 +0.7 149 66.2 270 -1.7 196 0.0 1
265 Evansville 0.4%   2 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 15 -5.6      -4.7 297 -0.8 194 67.1 251 -6.7 276 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 90 Belmont 76 105 Richmond 84   
Wed, Dec 3 97 High Point 84 143 Southern Illinois 86   
Wed, Dec 3 310 Ball St. 52 265 Evansville 64   
Wed, Dec 3 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 204 Illinois-Chicago 62   
Wed, Dec 3 269 Eastern Kentucky 78 92 Illinois St. 89   
Fri, Dec 5 124 Drake 69 110 UAB 74   
Sat, Dec 6 98 Northern Iowa 69 91 Wichita St. 74   
Sat, Dec 6 265 Evansville 79 128 Western Kentucky 80   
Sat, Dec 6 292 Bellarmine 68 111 Murray St. 81   
Sat, Dec 6 115 Bradley 84 333 Northern Illinois 55   
Sat, Dec 6 352 Chicago St. 53 92 Illinois St. 95   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 90 Belmont 78 136 Middle Tennessee 76 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 204 Illinois-Chicago 71 73 Yale 84 89%   
Sun, Dec 7 198 Indiana St. 84 314 Southern Indiana 75 81%   
Wed, Dec 10 143 Southern Illinois 76 240 Tennessee Martin 67 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 3.1 29.4 20.6 14.8 11.5 8.8 6.1 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2
Illinois St. 3.2 27.8 20.3 15.8 12.0 8.9 6.4 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2
Northern Iowa 3.5 23.6 18.4 15.9 12.7 9.7 7.9 5.4 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3
Murray St. 4.2 14.1 14.7 14.8 14.5 12.4 10.6 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.5 0.5
Bradley 4.4 12.5 13.8 14.2 14.2 13.2 11.3 8.5 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.6
Drake 5.0 9.4 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.1 12.7 10.8 8.3 5.6 3.2 1.3
Southern Illinois 5.8 5.4 7.1 9.2 10.9 12.2 13.6 13.6 11.5 8.2 5.5 2.7
Indiana St. 7.8 1.0 2.1 2.9 4.8 6.4 9.4 12.3 15.4 17.1 16.5 12.1
Illinois-Chicago 7.9 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.1 6.1 8.9 12.2 15.4 17.4 16.9 13.2
Valparaiso 8.3 0.5 1.3 2.2 3.4 5.2 7.7 11.2 15.1 18.1 19.2 16.2
Evansville 9.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 4.1 6.3 10.5 16.3 24.1 34.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.7 9.4 11.6 13.3 14.1 12.7 10.1 7.2 3.6 1.3 0.3
Illinois St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.5 7.0 9.5 12.0 14.0 14.0 12.7 9.5 6.6 3.4 1.3 0.3
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.7 5.6 8.3 10.6 12.5 13.5 13.3 10.9 8.7 5.2 2.7 1.0 0.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.8 8.1 10.9 12.9 13.9 13.0 10.9 7.9 5.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
Bradley 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.1 4.2 6.5 8.8 11.5 13.5 13.4 12.3 10.4 7.3 4.5 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
Drake 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.9 8.5 10.7 12.5 13.1 12.2 10.4 8.0 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.0 8.7 11.0 12.3 13.1 12.0 10.4 7.8 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 7 - 13 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.0 8.3 10.9 12.6 13.5 12.2 10.8 8.7 6.0 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.7 8.4 11.2 13.1 13.3 12.3 10.6 8.1 5.6 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.6 9.8 12.8 13.7 13.4 11.8 9.8 6.9 4.6 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 5 - 15 1.1 4.2 8.5 12.4 15.4 14.8 13.6 11.0 7.7 5.2 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 29.4% 19.9 7.3 1.9 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 27.8% 18.7 6.9 1.8 0.4 0.1
Northern Iowa 23.6% 15.6 6.0 1.6 0.3 0.1
Murray St. 14.1% 8.5 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.1
Bradley 12.5% 7.5 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
Drake 9.4% 5.3 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Southern Illinois 5.4% 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 1.0% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 21.3% 21.0% 0.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 4.8 11.3 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 78.7 0.4%
Illinois St. 20.6% 20.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.9 11.1 4.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 79.4 0.3%
Northern Iowa 17.7% 17.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.5 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 82.3 0.3%
Murray St. 11.6% 11.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 88.4 0.1%
Bradley 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 89.1 0.0%
Drake 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 91.5 0.0%
Southern Illinois 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 94.3 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 98.4 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.5 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 21.3% 0.2% 21.2% 4.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 20.6% 0.2% 20.5% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 17.7% 0.2% 17.6% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 11.6% 0.1% 11.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 10.9% 0.1% 10.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 8.5% 0.1% 8.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 5.7% 0.1% 5.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.1 0.5
2nd Round 16.0% 0.2 84.0 15.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3 0.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0