Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
68 Belmont 38.4%   12   25 - 5 16 - 4 +8.7      +7.6 43 +1.1 139 71.6 99 +9.9 61 +9.6 1
89 Northern Iowa 17.3%   18 - 12 11 - 9 +6.4      -0.8 184 +7.2 30 59.2 364 +3.5 114 +2.7 7
99 Illinois St. 14.3%   19 - 11 12 - 8 +5.2      +1.7 127 +3.6 78 66.7 232 +4.1 108 +4.2 5
113 Bradley 10.7%   19 - 11 13 - 7 +3.4      +2.2 112 +1.2 136 67.7 201 +3.8 110 +5.7 2
115 Illinois-Chicago 7.9%   15 - 14 12 - 8 +3.3      -0.1 167 +3.4 81 66.4 241 +1.3 137 +4.4 4
121 Southern Illinois 4.1%   15 - 15 10 - 10 +2.9      -3.8 271 +6.7 32 71.8 96 +1.4 135 +1.8 8
125 Murray St. 6.5%   20 - 11 12 - 8 +2.7      +4.6 75 -1.9 226 76.7 19 +5.0 99 +4.5 3
155 Valparaiso 1.7%   16 - 14 11 - 9 +0.2      -0.5 176 +0.7 148 64.5 286 +1.7 132 +3.4 6
200 Indiana St. 0.5%   9 - 20 4 - 16 -2.2      -1.8 220 -0.4 185 70.7 118 -5.0 243 -6.4 10
206 Drake 0.3%   10 - 19 6 - 14 -2.4      0.0 161 -2.5 250 67.9 196 -3.3 224 -2.9 9
295 Evansville 0.0%   5 - 24 3 - 17 -7.9      -4.5 292 -3.4 274 67.1 218 -7.2 281 -7.4 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 295 Evansville 80 155 Valparaiso 79   
Sun, Mar 1 68 Belmont 74 99 Illinois St. 81   
Sun, Mar 1 113 Bradley 87 125 Murray St. 78   
Sun, Mar 1 295 Evansville 67 121 Southern Illinois 81   
Sun, Mar 1 200 Indiana St. 79 115 Illinois-Chicago 63   
Sun, Mar 1 206 Drake 53 89 Northern Iowa 75   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 200 Indiana St. 71 155 Valparaiso 73 59%   
Thu, Mar 5 206 Drake 69 121 Southern Illinois 74 70%   
Thu, Mar 5 295 Evansville 57 89 Northern Iowa 71 90%   
Fri, Mar 6 125 Murray St. 78 115 Illinois-Chicago 79 53%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Bradley 2.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.0 100.0
Illinois St. 3.0 100.0
Murray St. 3.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 6.0 100.0
Valparaiso 6.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Drake 9.0 100.0
Indiana St. 10.0 100.0
Evansville 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 5 100.0
Bradley 13 - 7 19 - 11 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 16 - 14 100.0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 19 - 11 100.0
Murray St. 12 - 8 20 - 12 100.0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 19 - 12 100.0
Valparaiso 11 - 9 17 - 14 100.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 16 - 15 100.0
Drake 6 - 14 10 - 20 100.0
Indiana St. 4 - 16 9 - 21 100.0
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 25 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Bradley
Illinois-Chicago
Illinois St.
Murray St.
Northern Iowa
Valparaiso
Southern Illinois
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 38.4% 36.8% 1.6% 12   0.4 21.5 16.3 0.2 61.6 2.5%
Northern Iowa 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 1.3 14.0 2.0 0.0 82.7 0.0%
Illinois St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.8 11.1 2.4 0.0 85.7 0.0%
Bradley 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.1 5.5 4.8 0.3 89.4 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 5.1 1.0 0.0 92.1 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 2.6 0.1 95.9 0.0%
Murray St. 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.1 2.2 0.0 93.5 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 98.3 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Drake 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.4 1.6
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.1 0.6
2nd Round 13.5% 0.1 86.5 13.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 38.4% 1.6% 37.4% 7.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 17.3% 0.0% 17.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%