Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#123
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#115
Pace63.0#318
Improvement-2.4#290

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#125
First Shot+3.3#87
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#290
Layup/Dunks+4.3#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#99
Freethrows-1.3#271
Improvement-2.0#282

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#157
First Shot+2.0#107
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#296
Layups/Dunks-1.8#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows+2.0#56
Improvement-0.4#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 11.0% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 93.2% 61.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.6% 11.0% 8.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 39 - 710 - 10
Quad 48 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 205   @ Texas Arlington W 92-77 58%     1 - 0 +15.2 +21.9 -6.0
  Nov 13, 2024 168   Massachusetts W 76-66 60%     2 - 0 +9.6 +4.6 +4.9
  Nov 25, 2024 179   Southern Illinois W 85-79 OT 62%     3 - 0 +5.0 -2.0 +6.0
  Nov 26, 2024 218   Richmond W 65-62 70%     4 - 0 -0.2 -2.7 +2.9
  Nov 27, 2024 191   Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 65%     5 - 0 +7.2 +9.7 -1.6
  Nov 30, 2024 224   Southern L 70-73 78%     5 - 1 -8.9 -2.4 -6.5
  Dec 04, 2024 47   @ Memphis L 71-81 14%     5 - 2 +3.7 +7.1 -3.6
  Dec 08, 2024 289   @ Louisiana W 69-58 74%     6 - 2 +6.5 +0.4 +6.9
  Dec 13, 2024 248   Georgia Southern W 77-63 82%     7 - 2 +6.6 +6.6 +1.1
  Dec 16, 2024 89   Grand Canyon W 74-66 45%     8 - 2 +11.3 +8.0 +3.6
  Jan 02, 2025 139   @ UTEP L 60-70 44%     8 - 3 0 - 1 -6.3 -6.9 +0.1
  Jan 04, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. L 48-78 45%     8 - 4 0 - 2 -26.6 -12.8 -18.4
  Jan 09, 2025 268   Florida International W 81-64 83%     9 - 4 1 - 2 +8.9 +14.8 -4.4
  Jan 11, 2025 77   Liberty W 79-74 40%     10 - 4 2 - 2 +9.8 +10.3 -0.5
  Jan 16, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 61-63 40%     10 - 5 2 - 3 +2.6 +4.8 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. L 76-78 42%     10 - 6 2 - 4 +2.2 +10.9 -8.8
  Jan 23, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 77-67 63%     11 - 6 3 - 4 +8.8 +5.5 +3.3
  Jan 25, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee W 75-69 59%     12 - 6 4 - 4 +5.7 +3.2 +2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. W 66-61 OT 67%     13 - 6 5 - 4 +2.6 -11.1 +13.5
  Feb 06, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 53-77 23%     13 - 7 5 - 5 -14.1 -8.1 -8.0
  Feb 08, 2025 268   @ Florida International W 82-71 69%     14 - 7 6 - 5 +8.0 +16.2 -7.5
  Feb 13, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. L 47-69 62%     14 - 8 6 - 6 -22.9 -18.0 -8.1
  Feb 15, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. L 68-70 60%     14 - 9 6 - 7 -2.5 +1.0 -3.7
  Feb 20, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee W 85-74 40%     15 - 9 7 - 7 +15.8 +15.6 +0.3
  Feb 22, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky L 72-74 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 146   New Mexico St. W 67-63 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 139   UTEP W 71-68 65%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.5 5.4 12.1 3rd
4th 3.7 15.7 1.8 21.2 4th
5th 0.3 15.4 6.2 21.8 5th
6th 5.7 13.7 0.4 19.8 6th
7th 1.2 13.0 2.9 17.1 7th
8th 3.0 2.6 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.5 21.4 35.9 29.0 9.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 9.3% 14.7% 14.7% 12.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.9
10-8 29.0% 12.0% 12.0% 13.1 0.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 25.5
9-9 35.9% 8.9% 8.9% 13.5 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.1 32.7
8-10 21.4% 6.6% 6.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 20.0
7-11 4.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.1 0.1 4.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 13.3 1.6 4.2 3.2 0.5 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 12.5 57.4 37.5 4.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 2.3%