Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#245
Expected Predictive Rating-13.3#328
Pace70.4#147
Improvement-2.1#348

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#247
First Shot-1.0#215
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#257
Layup/Dunks-4.1#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#19
Freethrows-5.7#357
Improvement-0.6#280

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#231
First Shot+0.4#163
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#308
Layups/Dunks-1.5#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#79
Freethrows-3.4#333
Improvement-1.5#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 4.6% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 23.6% 44.3% 20.1%
.500 or above in Conference 42.9% 56.7% 40.5%
Conference Champion 2.5% 5.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 4.6% 10.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round2.4% 4.4% 2.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Neutral) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 48 - 611 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 123   Kent St. L 66-70 35%     0 - 1 -4.3 -3.3 -1.2
  Nov 13, 2024 4   @ Houston L 45-91 2%     0 - 2 -23.5 -17.0 -5.4
  Nov 19, 2024 172   Rice L 61-83 48%     0 - 3 -25.6 -8.4 -19.1
  Nov 22, 2024 80   Liberty L 61-72 14%    
  Nov 30, 2024 230   Nicholls St. W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 07, 2024 87   Louisiana Tech L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 11, 2024 270   SE Louisiana W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 290   Lamar W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 18, 2024 200   Appalachian St. W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 22, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 02, 2025 295   @ Coastal Carolina L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 229   @ Georgia St. L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 303   Old Dominion W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 321   Louisiana Monroe W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 107   @ Arkansas St. L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 321   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 22, 2025 165   Texas St. L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 256   Southern Miss W 81-77 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 165   @ Texas St. L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 198   South Alabama W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 220   @ Georgia Southern L 79-83 35%    
  Feb 12, 2025 124   Troy L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 196   Marshall W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 20, 2025 124   @ Troy L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 256   @ Southern Miss L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 107   Arkansas St. L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 28, 2025 198   @ South Alabama L 69-74 32%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.9 2.8 0.2 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.5 1.2 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 1.7 0.1 9.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.0 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.1 14th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.2 8.8 11.0 12.1 12.8 11.9 10.2 8.0 5.7 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 87.6% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 74.4% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.2% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 22.5% 22.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 24.2% 24.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 0.9% 19.3% 19.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.0% 15.3% 15.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-5 3.7% 11.3% 11.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.2
12-6 5.7% 9.1% 9.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.2
11-7 8.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.6
10-8 10.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
9-9 11.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.7
8-10 12.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.7
7-11 12.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.0
6-12 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-14 6.2% 6.2
3-15 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 97.4 0.0%