Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#289
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#280
Pace67.4#200
Improvement+2.5#85

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#307
First Shot-3.1#272
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#286
Layup/Dunks-1.3#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement-2.4#295

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#234
First Shot+0.7#154
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#348
Layups/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#38
Freethrows-3.1#347
Improvement+4.9#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 32.5% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 37.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 47 - 910 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 137   Kent St. L 66-70 29%     0 - 1 -5.3 -2.8 -2.7
  Nov 13, 2024 3   @ Houston L 45-91 1%     0 - 2 -21.0 -16.7 -3.2
  Nov 19, 2024 178   Rice L 61-83 36%     0 - 3 -25.5 -10.1 -17.3
  Nov 22, 2024 77   Liberty L 69-89 10%     0 - 4 -12.6 +7.3 -21.5
  Nov 23, 2024 117   George Washington L 74-83 18%     0 - 5 -6.2 -0.2 -5.5
  Nov 25, 2024 104   UAB L 86-98 15%     0 - 6 -7.9 +8.6 -16.3
  Nov 30, 2024 192   Nicholls St. L 75-76 40%     0 - 7 -5.4 +6.1 -11.5
  Dec 08, 2024 123   Louisiana Tech L 58-69 26%     0 - 8 -11.4 -11.1 -1.2
  Dec 11, 2024 213   SE Louisiana W 68-61 43%     1 - 8 +1.8 -5.4 +7.4
  Dec 14, 2024 194   Lamar L 45-74 40%     1 - 9 -33.4 -22.1 -15.1
  Dec 18, 2024 141   Appalachian St. W 68-62 29%     2 - 9 1 - 0 +4.6 +2.2 +2.7
  Dec 22, 2024 86   McNeese St. L 56-64 15%     2 - 10 -3.9 -8.8 +4.0
  Jan 02, 2025 312   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-68 48%     3 - 10 2 - 0 -3.5 +1.2 -4.4
  Jan 04, 2025 252   @ Georgia St. L 70-94 33%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -26.5 -8.6 -17.1
  Jan 09, 2025 286   Old Dominion L 60-71 59%     3 - 12 2 - 2 -20.5 -12.6 -8.9
  Jan 11, 2025 336   Louisiana Monroe W 71-68 75%     4 - 12 3 - 2 -11.0 -3.0 -7.9
  Jan 16, 2025 97   @ Arkansas St. L 63-83 9%     4 - 13 3 - 3 -12.5 -3.9 -8.8
  Jan 18, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 65-60 57%     5 - 13 4 - 3 -3.9 -6.2 +2.6
  Jan 23, 2025 202   Texas St. L 74-89 41%     5 - 14 4 - 4 -19.8 -3.6 -16.1
  Jan 25, 2025 280   Southern Miss L 59-67 58%     5 - 15 4 - 5 -17.1 -13.2 -4.4
  Jan 30, 2025 202   @ Texas St. W 70-61 24%     6 - 15 5 - 5 +9.3 +1.0 +9.1
  Feb 01, 2025 133   South Alabama L 58-62 OT 28%     6 - 16 5 - 6 -5.0 -11.4 +6.3
  Feb 05, 2025 248   @ Georgia Southern L 82-83 32%     6 - 17 5 - 7 -3.3 +19.0 -22.4
  Feb 08, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois W 66-64 59%     7 - 17 -7.3 -10.2 +2.9
  Feb 12, 2025 118   Troy L 56-74 25%     7 - 18 5 - 8 -17.8 -10.6 -8.7
  Feb 15, 2025 190   Marshall W 79-68 39%     8 - 18 6 - 8 +6.8 -1.4 +7.4
  Feb 20, 2025 118   @ Troy W 72-69 13%     9 - 18 7 - 8 +8.3 +3.2 +5.1
  Feb 22, 2025 280   @ Southern Miss L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 97   Arkansas St. L 67-76 20%    
  Feb 28, 2025 133   @ South Alabama L 59-70 14%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.6 0.7 1.3 6th
7th 6.4 9.4 0.7 16.4 7th
8th 1.4 19.6 2.4 23.4 8th
9th 10.8 13.7 0.2 24.7 9th
10th 22.2 2.5 24.7 10th
11th 8.8 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.7 0.7 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 43.9 42.1 12.6 1.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.6
8-10 42.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 42.0
7-11 43.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 43.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 25.4%