Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#314
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#339
Pace62.0#351
Improvement+1.1#111

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#352
First Shot-5.5#334
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#338
Layup/Dunks-4.4#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
Freethrows-3.2#332
Improvement-1.6#302

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot-0.8#194
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#179
Layups/Dunks+0.3#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#12
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#163
Freethrows-4.5#357
Improvement+2.7#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 19.1% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 6.3% 9.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 14
Quad 47 - 98 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 306 @Ball St. L 64-75 36%     0 - 1 -16.2 -4.3 -12.9
  Fri, Nov 7 266 SE Louisiana W 58-52 49%     1 - 1 -2.7 -5.1 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 11 194 Tulane L 62-66 36%     1 - 2 -9.2 -8.8 -0.8
  Fri, Nov 14 70 @McNeese St. L 62-88 4%     1 - 3 -15.1 -1.9 -14.5
  Tue, Nov 18 81 @Stanford L 66-93 5%     1 - 4 -17.1 -3.0 -13.6
  Fri, Nov 21 86 @Santa Clara L 43-80 5%     1 - 5 -27.4 -23.4 -5.9
  Mon, Nov 24 176 @UC Davis L 56-77 16%     1 - 6 -19.2 -12.0 -8.7
  Fri, Nov 28 324 Jackson St. L 45-51 65%     1 - 7 -18.8 -26.7 +7.1
  Wed, Dec 3 253 @Lamar L 55-65 26%     1 - 8 -12.2 -8.4 -5.3
  Sat, Dec 6 120 UNC Wilmington L 63-70 20%     1 - 9 -7.2 -5.1 -2.7
  Sat, Dec 13 187 @Louisiana Tech L 44-65 17%     1 - 10 -19.8 -17.1 -6.2
  Thu, Dec 18 207 @Southern Miss L 54-62 20%     1 - 11 0 - 1 -8.0 -17.2 +8.9
  Sat, Dec 20 359 @Louisiana Monroe W 76-62 61%     2 - 11 1 - 1 +2.1 +4.5 -1.0
  Sun, Dec 28 243 Norfolk St. L 63-64 46%    
  Wed, Dec 31 190 South Alabama L 61-65 36%    
  Sat, Jan 3 207 Southern Miss L 65-68 39%    
  Thu, Jan 8 359 Louisiana Monroe W 73-64 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 139 Troy L 62-69 25%    
  Wed, Jan 14 255 @Texas St. L 59-66 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 190 @South Alabama L 58-68 18%    
  Thu, Jan 22 228 @Appalachian St. L 56-64 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 217 @Old Dominion L 63-71 22%    
  Thu, Jan 29 330 Georgia St. W 67-63 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 213 Georgia Southern L 69-72 40%    
  Wed, Feb 4 198 @James Madison L 61-71 19%    
  Thu, Feb 12 230 Coastal Carolina L 64-66 44%    
  Thu, Feb 19 136 Arkansas St. L 67-75 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 255 Texas St. L 62-63 47%    
  Tue, Feb 24 139 @Troy L 59-72 11%    
  Fri, Feb 27 136 @Arkansas St. L 64-78 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 1.5 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.8 1.9 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.3 4.7 0.6 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.5 2.2 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.4 2.8 7.7 4.7 0.3 15.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.8 8.6 6.2 1.0 0.0 20.2 12th
13th 0.0 1.0 4.3 6.9 5.1 1.1 0.1 18.4 13th
14th 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.7 14th
Total 0.3 2.1 6.3 11.8 16.8 18.3 16.2 12.5 7.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 52.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.0
10-8 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5
9-9 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.9
8-10 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
7-11 16.2% 16.2
6-12 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.3
5-13 16.8% 16.8
4-14 11.8% 11.8
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%