Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#152
Pace65.6#253
Improvement-1.1#240

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#179
First Shot-2.2#241
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#65
Layup/Dunks+3.0#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#271
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement-1.0#235

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#93
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#23
Layups/Dunks-1.7#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#286
Freethrows+3.2#14
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 17.1% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 17.4% 18.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.5% 17.1% 9.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 221   Toledo W 84-74 79%     1 - 0 +4.2 -0.9 +4.5
  Nov 09, 2024 353   @ New Orleans W 78-61 89%     2 - 0 +6.4 -7.1 +12.0
  Nov 13, 2024 35   @ Arkansas L 49-65 12%     2 - 1 -0.7 -12.8 +11.8
  Nov 17, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 61-82 13%     2 - 2 -6.3 -8.6 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2024 348   @ West Georgia W 84-65 88%     3 - 2 +8.8 +14.3 -3.7
  Nov 25, 2024 208   Texas San Antonio W 86-72 77%     4 - 2 +8.9 +8.3 +0.4
  Nov 29, 2024 214   Merrimack L 68-72 77%     4 - 3 -9.2 +4.2 -13.8
  Dec 01, 2024 191   Eastern Kentucky W 84-74 75%     5 - 3 +5.6 +7.7 -2.0
  Dec 10, 2024 3   @ Houston L 42-62 3%     5 - 4 +5.0 -7.2 +6.7
  Dec 21, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 77-57 83%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +12.4 +2.9 +10.7
  Jan 02, 2025 141   @ Appalachian St. W 69-61 46%     7 - 4 2 - 0 +11.7 +9.6 +3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 190   @ Marshall W 58-57 57%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +1.9 -6.9 +8.9
  Jan 09, 2025 202   Texas St. L 73-74 76%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -5.8 -0.2 -5.7
  Jan 11, 2025 97   Arkansas St. L 78-84 51%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -3.5 +13.5 -17.5
  Jan 15, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-58 86%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +10.1 +9.4 +2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 133   @ South Alabama L 63-64 45%     9 - 7 4 - 3 +3.1 -0.5 +3.6
  Jan 25, 2025 133   South Alabama W 65-55 64%     10 - 7 5 - 3 +9.0 +2.4 +7.9
  Jan 27, 2025 280   Southern Miss W 70-61 86%     11 - 7 6 - 3 -0.1 -8.5 +7.9
  Jan 30, 2025 248   Georgia Southern W 81-74 83%     12 - 7 7 - 3 -0.4 +8.8 -8.8
  Feb 01, 2025 336   Louisiana Monroe W 87-50 93%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +23.0 +18.1 +8.8
  Feb 05, 2025 138   @ James Madison L 61-64 46%     13 - 8 8 - 4 +0.8 -0.2 +0.4
  Feb 08, 2025 171   @ Miami (OH) L 62-69 52%     13 - 9 -4.9 -11.5 +6.7
  Feb 12, 2025 289   @ Louisiana W 74-56 75%     14 - 9 9 - 4 +13.5 +6.3 +8.7
  Feb 15, 2025 97   @ Arkansas St. W 71-70 32%     15 - 9 10 - 4 +8.5 +3.9 +4.6
  Feb 20, 2025 289   Louisiana L 69-72 87%     15 - 10 10 - 5 -12.6 -7.5 -5.1
  Feb 22, 2025 312   Coastal Carolina W 73-59 92%    
  Feb 25, 2025 202   @ Texas St. W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 28, 2025 280   @ Southern Miss W 74-67 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 16.8 17.4 1st
2nd 4.9 18.4 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 15.2 4.2 19.7 3rd
4th 3.8 19.3 23.0 4th
5th 0.6 10.8 4.6 16.0 5th
6th 0.6 0.6 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.2 14.9 44.6 39.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 42.6% 16.8    0.4 2.8 6.5 5.9 1.3
12-6 1.3% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 17.4% 17.4 0.4 2.8 6.5 6.1 1.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 39.4% 21.4% 21.4% 13.1 1.5 4.6 2.2 0.1 31.0
12-6 44.6% 14.7% 14.7% 13.7 0.2 2.3 3.4 0.7 38.0
11-7 14.9% 9.8% 9.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 13.4
10-8 1.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 1.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 13.4 1.8 7.2 6.4 1.1 83.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.4% 100.0% 13.1 18.3 55.0 25.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.9%
Lose Out 0.3%