Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.9#17
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#15
Pace75.3#30
Improvement-3.1#310

Offense
Total Offense+12.9#4
First Shot+13.5#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#227
Layup/Dunks+4.1#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#44
Freethrows+2.8#39
Improvement-0.9#227

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#70
First Shot+1.8#119
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#32
Layups/Dunks+4.8#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#50
Freethrows+1.4#88
Improvement-2.3#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 4.7% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 12.9% 25.1% 7.6%
Top 4 Seed 66.6% 85.4% 58.4%
Top 6 Seed 94.2% 99.6% 91.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 4.0 3.3 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 98.2% 75.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round88.7% 93.7% 86.5%
Sweet Sixteen51.2% 57.5% 48.5%
Elite Eight22.3% 27.0% 20.2%
Final Four9.2% 11.3% 8.3%
Championship Game3.6% 4.4% 3.2%
National Champion1.4% 1.8% 1.2%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 88 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 310 - 10
Quad 22 - 112 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 220   Wright St. W 103-62 97%     1 - 0 +35.2 +18.9 +14.0
  Nov 09, 2024 232   Bucknell W 100-72 97%     2 - 0 +21.6 +14.4 +4.1
  Nov 12, 2024 2   Duke W 77-72 26%     3 - 0 +28.6 +10.1 +18.1
  Nov 19, 2024 101   Lipscomb W 97-68 91%     4 - 0 +30.9 +23.4 +6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 108-59 98%     5 - 0 +40.7 +17.0 +16.8
  Nov 26, 2024 135   Western Kentucky W 87-68 94%     6 - 0 +17.8 +6.6 +9.2
  Nov 29, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +21.4 +14.3 +3.8
  Dec 03, 2024 23   @ Clemson L 66-70 45%     7 - 1 +14.1 +4.0 +10.0
  Dec 07, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 90-89 OT 44%     8 - 1 +19.4 +18.8 +0.5
  Dec 11, 2024 239   Colgate W 78-67 98%     9 - 1 +4.2 +3.2 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2024 21   Louisville W 93-85 64%     10 - 1 +21.2 +22.2 -1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 33   Ohio St. L 65-85 62%     10 - 2 -6.3 +1.2 -8.3
  Dec 31, 2024 185   Brown W 88-54 96%     11 - 2 +30.0 +17.1 +14.3
  Jan 04, 2025 4   Florida W 106-100 39%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +25.7 +39.3 -13.7
  Jan 07, 2025 44   @ Georgia L 69-82 61%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +1.2 -0.2 +2.2
  Jan 11, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 95-90 49%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +22.3 +24.9 -3.0
  Jan 14, 2025 20   Texas A&M W 81-69 63%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +25.5 +15.0 +10.1
  Jan 18, 2025 6   Alabama L 97-102 50%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +11.9 +18.8 -6.4
  Jan 25, 2025 53   @ Vanderbilt L 69-74 64%     14 - 5 3 - 3 +8.2 +3.9 +4.0
  Jan 28, 2025 5   @ Tennessee W 78-73 30%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +27.5 +23.0 +4.7
  Feb 01, 2025 35   Arkansas L 79-89 74%     15 - 6 4 - 4 +0.2 +10.7 -10.2
  Feb 04, 2025 25   @ Mississippi L 84-98 48%     15 - 7 4 - 5 +3.4 +19.0 -15.4
  Feb 08, 2025 84   South Carolina W 80-57 88%     16 - 7 5 - 5 +27.2 +11.3 +16.1
  Feb 11, 2025 5   Tennessee W 75-64 48%     17 - 7 6 - 5 +28.4 +20.9 +8.5
  Feb 15, 2025 36   @ Texas L 78-82 56%     17 - 8 6 - 6 +11.3 +9.2 +2.3
  Feb 19, 2025 53   Vanderbilt W 82-61 80%     18 - 8 7 - 6 +29.1 +15.5 +14.5
  Feb 22, 2025 6   @ Alabama L 91-96 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 50   @ Oklahoma W 84-81 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 83-87 36%    
  Mar 04, 2025 72   LSU W 87-75 87%    
  Mar 08, 2025 15   @ Missouri L 83-86 36%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 1.2 2.7 4th
5th 0.4 5.5 0.3 6.2 5th
6th 0.2 5.8 5.8 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 4.5 15.8 1.9 22.4 7th
8th 1.5 14.8 8.7 0.1 25.0 8th
9th 0.3 10.2 13.0 1.1 24.7 9th
10th 1.0 3.7 0.3 5.0 10th
11th 0.5 0.2 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.9 15.7 32.8 31.9 15.0 2.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.7% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 1.9 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.0% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 2.7 0.8 4.7 7.2 2.1 0.2 100.0%
10-8 31.9% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 3.5 0.3 3.8 12.6 11.1 3.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
9-9 32.8% 100.0% 1.8% 98.2% 4.2 0.0 1.1 6.8 11.3 10.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
8-10 15.7% 100.0% 1.5% 98.5% 5.7 0.0 0.5 1.6 4.9 5.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
7-11 1.9% 99.5% 0.5% 99.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.5%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 4.0 1.9 11.1 27.5 26.2 19.2 8.4 3.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 60.6 39.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 38.7 58.1 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 2.0 21.8 58.6 18.4 1.1
Lose Out 0.9% 98.8% 9.6 1.2 4.7 38.8 45.9 8.2