Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#9
Expected Predictive Rating+23.3#3
Pace78.9#13
Improvement-3.8#348

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#5
First Shot+11.6#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#183
Layup/Dunks+3.9#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#43
Freethrows+1.4#100
Improvement-0.9#257

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot+3.1#85
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#21
Layups/Dunks+5.4#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#91
Freethrows+2.6#35
Improvement-2.9#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.6% 6.7% 3.2%
#1 Seed 24.3% 27.7% 16.7%
Top 2 Seed 51.7% 57.0% 39.6%
Top 4 Seed 81.9% 85.5% 73.7%
Top 6 Seed 91.8% 93.9% 86.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 99.1% 96.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.3% 99.0% 96.6%
Average Seed 3.0 2.7 3.5
.500 or above 99.4% 99.7% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 83.0% 75.4%
Conference Champion 9.7% 10.8% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four1.4% 1.0% 2.5%
First Round97.8% 98.7% 95.7%
Second Round88.6% 90.8% 83.7%
Sweet Sixteen57.6% 60.1% 51.9%
Elite Eight31.7% 33.7% 27.1%
Final Four15.7% 17.2% 12.2%
Championship Game7.5% 8.3% 5.7%
National Champion3.6% 4.1% 2.4%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Neutral) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 78 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 211 - 9
Quad 24 - 115 - 9
Quad 33 - 018 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 154   Wright St. W 103-62 96%     1 - 0 +38.1 +19.8 +15.9
  Nov 09, 2024 264   Bucknell W 100-72 98%     2 - 0 +19.4 +15.0 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2024 2   Duke W 77-72 36%     3 - 0 +26.0 +11.3 +14.4
  Nov 19, 2024 107   Lipscomb W 97-68 92%     4 - 0 +30.2 +23.6 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 108-59 99%     5 - 0 +38.3 +17.2 +14.1
  Nov 26, 2024 105   Western Kentucky W 87-68 92%     6 - 0 +20.4 +8.3 +10.2
  Nov 29, 2024 263   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +20.4 +16.5 +0.6
  Dec 03, 2024 35   @ Clemson L 66-70 58%     7 - 1 +11.3 +2.9 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 4   Gonzaga W 90-89 OT 39%     8 - 1 +21.1 +19.7 +1.3
  Dec 11, 2024 223   Colgate W 78-67 97%     9 - 1 +4.8 +5.9 -0.5
  Dec 14, 2024 51   Louisville W 93-85 83%     10 - 1 +15.2 +19.5 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 84-78 70%    
  Dec 31, 2024 156   Brown W 87-67 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 7   Florida W 88-86 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 32   @ Georgia W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 82-81 53%    
  Jan 14, 2025 25   Texas A&M W 80-74 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 8   Alabama W 92-89 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt W 87-83 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 29   Arkansas W 87-80 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 27   @ Mississippi W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 69   South Carolina W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 3   Tennessee L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 31   @ Texas W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 90-80 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 8   @ Alabama L 89-92 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma W 83-81 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 84-87 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 56   LSU W 88-77 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 55   @ Missouri W 85-81 65%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 2.7 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 9.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 4.7 3.9 1.4 0.2 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.6 4.5 1.1 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.3 4.7 1.0 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.7 5.3 1.2 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.3 2.0 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.5 3.8 3.0 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.1 1.5 0.1 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.5 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.4 11.4 13.9 14.9 13.9 11.5 7.8 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 88.4% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.2% 3.1    1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.7% 2.7    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.2% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 4.9 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.1% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.1 1.8 0.3 100.0%
15-3 4.6% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 1.2 3.6 0.9 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.8% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1.4 5.1 2.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.5% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 1.6 5.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.9% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 1.9 4.2 7.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.9% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 2.4 2.3 6.4 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.9% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 2.9 0.7 4.0 5.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.4% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 3.6 0.1 1.3 3.8 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 8.4% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 5.4% 99.3% 1.2% 98.1% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
6-12 3.1% 93.7% 0.8% 92.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.2 93.6%
5-13 1.5% 62.5% 0.3% 62.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 62.5%
4-14 0.6% 16.7% 16.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 16.7%
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 98.4% 8.8% 89.6% 3.0 24.3 27.4 19.2 11.0 6.2 3.6 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.6 98.3%