Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#26
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#90
Pace73.9#70
Improvement-1.5#321

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#19
First Shot+4.0#70
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#27
Layup/Dunks-8.6#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.8#6
Freethrows+2.7#60
Improvement-1.4#343

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#41
First Shot+4.9#52
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#139
Layups/Dunks+5.0#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#18
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement-0.1#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 3.8% 6.8% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 9.5% 15.8% 5.8%
Top 4 Seed 24.8% 36.4% 18.0%
Top 6 Seed 41.9% 56.5% 33.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.6% 85.3% 66.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.8% 83.2% 64.0%
Average Seed 5.9 5.3 6.4
.500 or above 87.1% 94.4% 82.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 82.1% 70.1%
Conference Champion 13.7% 18.9% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.9% 2.4%
First Four3.9% 2.9% 4.5%
First Round71.8% 84.0% 64.7%
Second Round50.4% 62.5% 43.4%
Sweet Sixteen24.7% 33.0% 19.9%
Elite Eight11.3% 15.9% 8.7%
Final Four5.0% 7.4% 3.6%
Championship Game2.1% 3.3% 1.5%
National Champion0.8% 1.3% 0.5%

Next Game: Alabama (Neutral) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 98%     1 - 0 +33.6 +17.1 +9.3
  Nov 08, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 97%     2 - 0 +23.5 +16.9 +7.4
  Nov 13, 2024 176   Oakland W 66-54 94%     3 - 0 +8.1 -6.8 +15.2
  Nov 20, 2024 9   Alabama L 82-86 37%    
  Nov 23, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 89-59 99.8%   
  Nov 25, 2024 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 87-66 97%    
  Nov 28, 2024 27   Arkansas W 78-77 50%    
  Dec 06, 2024 74   @ Northwestern W 72-69 60%    
  Dec 10, 2024 38   Wisconsin W 80-75 68%    
  Dec 14, 2024 8   Tennessee L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 22, 2024 61   Missouri W 79-74 66%    
  Dec 29, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 91-62 99.6%   
  Jan 02, 2025 40   @ Oregon L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 05, 2025 84   @ Washington W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 32   Penn St. W 83-79 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 78   USC W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 14, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 19, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 30   Maryland W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 26, 2025 74   Northwestern W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 30, 2025 65   @ Nebraska W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 02, 2025 20   Ohio St. W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 42   @ Rutgers L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 28   UCLA W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 35   Michigan St. W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 38   @ Wisconsin L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 5   Duke L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 41   Iowa W 85-80 67%    
  Mar 02, 2025 24   @ Michigan L 76-79 39%    
  Mar 07, 2025 19   Purdue W 78-76 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.9 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 13.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.0 0.2 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.1 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.4 8.5 9.7 10.9 11.4 11.2 10.1 8.4 6.0 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 95.7% 1.9    1.7 0.2
17-3 85.8% 3.3    2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 64.4% 3.9    2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 31.7% 2.7    0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 8.3 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 2.2 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.0% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.9 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 8.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.9 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.1% 99.8% 15.0% 84.8% 5.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 11.2% 98.8% 10.5% 88.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
12-8 11.4% 95.1% 5.2% 89.9% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.6 94.8%
11-9 10.9% 86.0% 3.8% 82.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 1.5 85.5%
10-10 9.7% 68.9% 2.3% 66.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.1 3.0 68.2%
9-11 8.5% 39.2% 1.3% 37.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.1 5.2 38.4%
8-12 6.4% 14.2% 0.6% 13.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 5.5 13.7%
7-13 4.5% 2.3% 0.2% 2.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 2.1%
6-14 2.8% 2.8
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 73.6% 9.5% 64.0% 5.9 3.8 5.6 7.6 7.7 8.6 8.6 8.9 8.1 5.8 4.5 4.0 0.5 26.4 70.8%