Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#15
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#28
Pace68.2#205
Improvement+2.9#30

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#33
First Shot+5.1#52
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#66
Layup/Dunks+7.2#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#356
Freethrows+4.9#3
Improvement+2.9#20

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#11
First Shot+5.4#41
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#23
Layups/Dunks+5.6#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows+1.1#114
Improvement+0.0#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.8% 5.3% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 14.1% 15.4% 6.3%
Top 4 Seed 40.1% 42.5% 24.8%
Top 6 Seed 65.1% 67.5% 50.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.5% 94.4% 87.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.5% 93.5% 86.3%
Average Seed 5.2 5.1 6.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.5% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 92.2% 87.6%
Conference Champion 23.0% 24.0% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four2.1% 1.8% 3.8%
First Round92.5% 93.5% 86.3%
Second Round70.5% 72.1% 60.0%
Sweet Sixteen37.4% 39.0% 27.4%
Elite Eight17.6% 18.4% 12.1%
Final Four7.9% 8.3% 5.2%
Championship Game3.4% 3.5% 2.4%
National Champion1.3% 1.4% 1.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 8
Quad 27 - 114 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 272   Monmouth W 81-57 98%     1 - 0 +15.0 +1.4 +12.9
  Nov 07, 2024 320   Niagara W 96-60 99%     2 - 0 +24.1 +15.1 +8.7
  Nov 12, 2024 10   Kansas L 69-77 43%     2 - 1 +9.2 -2.5 +12.5
  Nov 16, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 86-72 98%     3 - 1 +5.3 +6.6 -1.5
  Nov 19, 2024 112   Samford W 83-75 91%     4 - 1 +8.4 +5.8 +2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 75   Colorado W 72-56 77%     5 - 1 +23.5 +4.9 +18.9
  Nov 26, 2024 37   Memphis L 63-71 62%     5 - 2 +4.2 +1.3 +2.0
  Nov 27, 2024 22   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 54%     6 - 2 +17.1 +15.5 +1.3
  Dec 04, 2024 114   @ Minnesota W 90-72 80%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +24.4 +29.9 -4.0
  Dec 07, 2024 53   Nebraska W 89-52 78%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +44.0 +19.6 +24.0
  Dec 17, 2024 206   Oakland W 77-58 94%     9 - 2 +16.9 +10.5 +8.4
  Dec 21, 2024 85   Florida Atlantic W 84-72 86%    
  Dec 30, 2024 296   Western Michigan W 85-60 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 38   @ Ohio St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 82   Washington W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 12, 2025 61   @ Northwestern W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 15, 2025 30   Penn St. W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 19, 2025 16   Illinois W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 64   Rutgers W 76-70 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 114   Minnesota W 73-58 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 76   @ USC W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 14   @ UCLA L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 23   Oregon W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 45   Indiana W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 18, 2025 20   Purdue W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 21, 2025 21   @ Michigan L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 02, 2025 36   Wisconsin W 77-71 71%    
  Mar 06, 2025 42   @ Iowa W 79-78 55%    
  Mar 09, 2025 21   Michigan W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 5.0 7.1 5.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 23.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.9 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.2 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.4 7.1 10.3 13.3 14.6 14.8 12.4 9.7 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.8% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 98.7% 2.7    2.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 92.2% 5.2    4.3 0.9 0.0
16-4 73.2% 7.1    4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 40.2% 5.0    1.7 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.7% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.0% 23.0 14.1 6.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 43.8% 56.3% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.7% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.7% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 2.8 1.0 2.9 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 3.6 0.4 1.7 3.8 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.8% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 4.5 0.1 0.5 2.6 4.1 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.6% 99.9% 11.2% 88.7% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.9 3.9 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.3% 98.9% 6.3% 92.6% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.3 3.6 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
11-9 10.3% 96.2% 4.0% 92.2% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 2.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.4 96.0%
10-10 7.1% 88.1% 3.0% 85.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.8 87.8%
9-11 4.4% 60.7% 1.7% 59.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.7 60.0%
8-12 2.4% 24.1% 1.3% 22.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.8 23.1%
7-13 1.0% 3.6% 0.4% 3.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.2%
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.5% 13.3% 80.2% 5.2 4.8 9.3 12.7 13.2 12.9 12.1 10.4 7.3 5.0 3.4 2.1 0.2 6.5 92.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.2 2.8