Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#12
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#10
Pace68.5#173
Improvement+3.2#54

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#23
First Shot+6.1#42
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#42
Layup/Dunks+7.0#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#354
Freethrows+4.4#8
Improvement+0.9#138

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#9
First Shot+7.8#12
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#46
Layups/Dunks+6.1#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#107
Freethrows+2.2#49
Improvement+2.3#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 6.9% 12.9% 2.8%
Top 2 Seed 29.2% 45.6% 18.3%
Top 4 Seed 81.1% 93.2% 73.0%
Top 6 Seed 97.7% 99.8% 96.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.3 2.7 3.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 62.5% 79.1% 51.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round93.0% 95.5% 91.3%
Sweet Sixteen58.5% 63.2% 55.4%
Elite Eight28.7% 32.6% 26.2%
Final Four13.3% 15.4% 11.9%
Championship Game5.9% 7.4% 4.8%
National Champion2.6% 3.0% 2.2%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 6
Quad 26 - 216 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 255   Monmouth W 81-57 98%     1 - 0 +16.2 +1.4 +14.1
  Nov 07, 2024 319   Niagara W 96-60 99%     2 - 0 +24.2 +15.6 +8.3
  Nov 12, 2024 19   Kansas L 69-77 58%     2 - 1 +8.1 -1.2 +10.2
  Nov 16, 2024 301   Bowling Green W 86-72 99%     3 - 1 +3.6 +7.3 -3.8
  Nov 19, 2024 113   Samford W 83-75 94%     4 - 1 +8.4 +8.7 -0.4
  Nov 25, 2024 91   Colorado W 72-56 88%     5 - 1 +21.6 +4.9 +17.0
  Nov 26, 2024 47   Memphis L 63-71 75%     5 - 2 +3.1 +3.1 -0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 40   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 72%     6 - 2 +15.1 +14.5 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 76   @ Minnesota W 90-72 78%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +27.9 +30.3 -0.8
  Dec 07, 2024 48   Nebraska W 89-52 82%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +45.5 +19.6 +25.5
  Dec 17, 2024 198   Oakland W 77-58 96%     9 - 2 +16.9 +10.0 +8.8
  Dec 21, 2024 105   Florida Atlantic W 86-69 93%     10 - 2 +18.5 +6.7 +10.9
  Dec 30, 2024 302   Western Michigan W 80-62 99%     11 - 2 +7.6 -1.0 +7.9
  Jan 03, 2025 33   @ Ohio St. W 69-62 58%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +23.2 +5.1 +18.3
  Jan 09, 2025 90   Washington W 88-54 91%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +37.2 +14.4 +21.7
  Jan 12, 2025 58   @ Northwestern W 78-68 70%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +22.8 +13.0 +10.0
  Jan 15, 2025 62   Penn St. W 90-85 87%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +11.0 +15.9 -5.1
  Jan 19, 2025 18   Illinois W 80-78 67%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +15.6 +8.9 +6.6
  Jan 25, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 81-74 76%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +17.9 +10.4 +7.3
  Jan 28, 2025 76   Minnesota W 73-51 89%     18 - 2 9 - 0 +26.9 +13.5 +16.6
  Feb 01, 2025 59   @ USC L 64-70 70%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +6.7 -1.3 +7.7
  Feb 04, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 61-63 54%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +15.3 +3.5 +11.6
  Feb 08, 2025 39   Oregon W 86-74 79%     19 - 4 10 - 2 +21.6 +18.5 +3.3
  Feb 11, 2025 57   Indiana L 67-71 83%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +4.0 +2.9 +0.9
  Feb 15, 2025 18   @ Illinois W 79-65 48%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +32.7 +16.8 +16.4
  Feb 18, 2025 16   Purdue W 75-66 63%     21 - 5 12 - 3 +23.9 +19.1 +6.3
  Feb 21, 2025 22   @ Michigan W 75-62 50%     22 - 5 13 - 3 +31.2 +15.7 +16.3
  Feb 26, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 74-76 40%    
  Mar 02, 2025 7   Wisconsin W 76-74 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 61   @ Iowa W 83-77 71%    
  Mar 09, 2025 22   Michigan W 77-72 70%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 16.2 33.1 13.1 62.5 1st
2nd 0.0 3.3 16.2 0.9 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 8.3 2.3 10.9 3rd
4th 1.0 3.5 4.5 4th
5th 1.4 0.4 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.6 15.6 34.8 34.0 13.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 13.1    13.1
16-4 97.4% 33.1    23.3 9.0 0.8
15-5 46.7% 16.2    1.3 5.7 6.6 2.3 0.2
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 62.5% 62.5 37.7 14.7 7.4 2.4 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 13.1% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.0 3.6 6.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 34.0% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.7 2.9 11.4 13.1 5.8 0.8 0.0 100.0%
15-5 34.8% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.6 0.4 4.2 11.8 11.7 5.5 1.1 0.2 100.0%
14-6 15.6% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.7 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.9 5.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-7 2.6% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 3.3 6.9 22.4 30.0 21.9 11.9 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 1.4 57.3 41.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 100.0% 1.9 23.5 59.3 16.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0% 100.0% 2.2 17.3 51.9 27.6 3.3
Lose Out 0.9% 100.0% 7.6 14.1 30.6 40.0 14.1 1.2