Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#58
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#69
Pace62.9#319
Improvement+1.9#107

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#64
First Shot+5.2#54
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#189
Layup/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#224
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement+3.5#36

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#53
First Shot+2.3#99
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#10
Layups/Dunks+0.6#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#229
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement-1.6#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 11.6% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.8% 11.4% 2.1%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 60.4% 84.0% 36.2%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 2.1% 16.1%
First Four4.8% 7.8% 1.7%
First Round4.3% 7.3% 1.2%
Second Round1.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 54 - 10
Quad 23 - 57 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 279   Lehigh W 90-46 95%     1 - 0 +34.9 +17.5 +18.9
  Nov 09, 2024 83   @ Dayton L 66-71 54%     1 - 1 +4.3 -3.4 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2024 147   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 87%     2 - 1 +7.2 +6.1 +0.8
  Nov 15, 2024 338   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 98%     3 - 1 -5.0 -3.0 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 188   Montana St. W 72-69 90%     4 - 1 -1.1 +4.4 -5.2
  Nov 22, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 68-50 93%     5 - 1 +11.9 -4.3 +17.2
  Nov 28, 2024 66   Butler L 69-71 58%     5 - 2 +6.3 +1.8 +4.5
  Nov 29, 2024 98   UNLV W 66-61 70%     6 - 2 +9.9 +5.5 +5.1
  Dec 03, 2024 61   @ Iowa L 79-80 44%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +10.8 +8.3 +2.4
  Dec 06, 2024 18   Illinois W 70-66 OT 37%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +17.6 -2.3 +19.6
  Dec 15, 2024 99   Georgia Tech W 71-60 70%     8 - 3 +15.9 +2.1 +13.8
  Dec 21, 2024 120   DePaul W 84-64 83%     9 - 3 +20.0 +10.5 +9.4
  Dec 29, 2024 212   Northeastern W 85-60 92%     10 - 3 +19.8 +19.2 +3.3
  Jan 02, 2025 62   @ Penn St. L 80-84 47%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +7.1 +9.3 -2.1
  Jan 05, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 61-79 18%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +2.0 -0.7 +1.5
  Jan 12, 2025 12   Michigan St. L 68-78 30%     10 - 6 1 - 4 +5.7 +4.9 +0.7
  Jan 16, 2025 13   Maryland W 76-74 OT 31%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +17.4 +5.8 +11.5
  Jan 19, 2025 22   @ Michigan L 76-80 OT 23%     11 - 7 2 - 5 +14.2 +5.8 +8.7
  Jan 22, 2025 57   Indiana W 79-70 59%     12 - 7 3 - 5 +17.0 +13.8 +3.6
  Jan 26, 2025 18   @ Illinois L 74-83 21%     12 - 8 3 - 6 +9.7 +11.1 -1.7
  Jan 29, 2025 63   Rutgers L 72-79 67%     12 - 9 3 - 7 -1.2 +6.5 -8.2
  Feb 01, 2025 7   Wisconsin L 69-75 28%     12 - 10 3 - 8 +10.2 +10.6 -1.2
  Feb 04, 2025 59   USC W 77-75 61%     13 - 10 4 - 8 +9.6 +16.8 -7.0
  Feb 08, 2025 90   @ Washington L 71-76 58%     13 - 11 4 - 9 +3.3 +8.2 -5.3
  Feb 11, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 75-81 33%     13 - 12 4 - 10 +8.7 +12.5 -4.2
  Feb 16, 2025 48   Nebraska L 64-68 57%     13 - 13 4 - 11 +4.5 -2.7 +7.1
  Feb 20, 2025 33   @ Ohio St. W 70-49 28%     14 - 13 5 - 11 +37.2 +13.4 +26.3
  Feb 25, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 28, 2025 61   Iowa W 79-75 65%    
  Mar 03, 2025 27   UCLA L 65-67 45%    
  Mar 08, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 67-77 16%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.9 9th
10th 1.8 1.3 3.1 10th
11th 0.1 6.7 0.4 7.2 11th
12th 2.7 7.8 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.0 11.6 2.5 14.1 13th
14th 1.3 16.1 0.3 17.6 14th
15th 10.5 7.3 0.0 17.8 15th
16th 3.5 16.6 0.8 20.8 16th
17th 4.3 2.2 6.5 17th
18th 1.3 0.1 1.3 18th
Total 9.0 30.6 38.6 19.1 2.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 2.7% 62.9% 0.7% 62.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.0 62.6%
8-12 19.1% 24.1% 0.2% 23.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.3 0.5 14.5 24.0%
7-13 38.6% 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 38.0 1.4%
6-14 30.6% 30.6
5-15 9.0% 9.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.9% 0.1% 6.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 4.3 0.7 93.1 6.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 95.5% 8.6 9.1 31.8 45.5 9.1
Lose Out 9.0%