Iowa
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#41
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#29
Pace77.7#25
Improvement+0.9#87

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#22
First Shot+8.8#17
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#236
Layup/Dunks+2.4#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#16
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement-0.9#317

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#77
First Shot+5.2#48
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#276
Layups/Dunks-6.6#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#43
Freethrows+5.6#5
Improvement+1.8#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 2.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.8% 10.9% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 23.7% 23.8% 7.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.0% 60.2% 38.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.1% 58.2% 36.4%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.2
.500 or above 88.2% 88.3% 69.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.9% 60.0% 42.3%
Conference Champion 5.8% 5.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 3.7% 8.4%
First Four5.1% 5.1% 3.3%
First Round57.3% 57.4% 36.7%
Second Round34.4% 34.5% 17.7%
Sweet Sixteen14.0% 14.1% 4.2%
Elite Eight5.6% 5.7% 1.4%
Final Four2.1% 2.1% 0.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.5%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 9
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 33 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 90-63 99%    
  Nov 07, 2024 275   Southern W 89-74 96%     1 - 0 +6.1 +10.4 -4.8
  Nov 12, 2024 249   South Dakota W 96-77 95%     2 - 0 +11.7 +12.4 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2024 80   Washington St. W 76-66 66%     3 - 0 +17.1 -0.1 +16.4
  Nov 19, 2024 240   Rider W 83-58 95%     4 - 0 +18.1 +4.8 +12.5
  Nov 22, 2024 45   Utah St. W 85-84 55%    
  Nov 26, 2024 314   South Carolina Upstate W 94-71 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 74   Northwestern W 77-70 73%    
  Dec 07, 2024 24   @ Michigan L 77-82 31%    
  Dec 12, 2024 12   Iowa St. L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 15, 2024 358   New Orleans W 97-68 99.6%   
  Dec 21, 2024 54   Utah W 82-80 58%    
  Dec 30, 2024 341   New Hampshire W 91-65 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 38   @ Wisconsin L 78-81 39%    
  Jan 07, 2025 65   Nebraska W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 22   Indiana W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 78   @ USC W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 17, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 21, 2025 90   Minnesota W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 24, 2025 32   Penn St. W 85-83 55%    
  Jan 27, 2025 20   @ Ohio St. L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 04, 2025 19   Purdue W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 38   Wisconsin W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 42   @ Rutgers L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 16, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 75-80 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 40   Oregon W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 84   Washington W 84-77 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 26   @ Illinois L 80-85 33%    
  Feb 28, 2025 74   @ Northwestern W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 35   Michigan St. W 79-77 58%    
  Mar 09, 2025 65   @ Nebraska L 78-79 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.9 1.3 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.1 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.3 2.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.8 0.1 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 5.2 7.6 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.5 10.4 9.2 6.9 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 98.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 85.1% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 58.1% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 32.4% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.8% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.8% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 4.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.9% 99.7% 12.5% 87.1% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 9.2% 98.6% 7.8% 90.8% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.5%
12-8 10.4% 95.0% 4.2% 90.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.7%
11-9 11.5% 85.9% 2.2% 83.7% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 1.6 85.6%
10-10 12.0% 71.1% 1.7% 69.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.7 0.1 3.5 70.6%
9-11 11.1% 40.1% 0.9% 39.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 0.2 6.6 39.6%
8-12 9.4% 14.4% 0.3% 14.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.0 14.2%
7-13 7.6% 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 2.0%
6-14 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 5.2 0.0%
5-15 3.6% 3.6
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 60.0% 4.6% 55.4% 7.1 1.0 1.9 3.6 4.4 6.0 6.9 7.8 8.1 7.7 6.8 5.4 0.6 0.0 40.0 58.1%