Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#354
Expected Predictive Rating-14.0#345
Pace67.1#226
Improvement-1.9#264

Offense
Total Offense-8.4#354
First Shot-7.6#351
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#243
Layup/Dunks-4.1#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement-1.6#274

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#323
First Shot-4.0#305
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#271
Layups/Dunks-4.3#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#273
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement-0.3#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 86.4% 82.4% 86.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 80 - 14
Quad 45 - 125 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 66-93 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 268   @ South Dakota L 75-85 16%    
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -13.9 -5.8 -9.5
  Nov 13, 2024 219   Southern W 70-68 24%     1 - 1 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 46-81 1%     1 - 2 -17.2 -23.7 +7.5
  Nov 21, 2024 45   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 1%     1 - 3 -14.0 -11.1 -3.2
  Nov 25, 2024 312   @ Stonehill L 65-67 23%     1 - 4 -7.9 -1.6 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 145   Purdue Fort Wayne L 57-77 13%     1 - 5 -21.4 -15.3 -7.6
  Dec 05, 2024 316   @ Houston Christian L 79-83 24%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -10.1 +3.8 -13.9
  Dec 07, 2024 303   @ Incarnate Word L 53-65 21%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -17.2 -19.7 +1.4
  Dec 15, 2024 126   South Alabama L 72-81 11%     1 - 8 -9.4 +3.1 -12.8
  Dec 18, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 68-67 27%     2 - 8 -6.2 -6.2 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 154   @ South Florida L 62-88 7%     2 - 9 -22.6 -11.1 -11.0
  Jan 04, 2025 74   McNeese St. L 56-75 6%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -14.3 -12.8 -1.9
  Jan 06, 2025 205   Nicholls St. L 61-83 21%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -26.9 -8.8 -20.1
  Jan 11, 2025 289   @ Northwestern St. L 67-75 20%     2 - 12 0 - 5 -12.5 -7.0 -5.6
  Jan 13, 2025 247   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 55-57 14%     2 - 13 0 - 6 -4.0 -10.9 +6.5
  Jan 18, 2025 343   New Orleans L 73-82 54%     2 - 14 0 - 7 -23.5 -11.0 -12.1
  Jan 20, 2025 220   SE Louisiana L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 25, 2025 231   @ Lamar L 61-73 12%    
  Jan 27, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 58-69 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 289   Northwestern St. L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 03, 2025 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 205   @ Nicholls St. L 64-78 9%    
  Feb 10, 2025 74   @ McNeese St. L 55-79 1%    
  Feb 15, 2025 231   Lamar L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 17, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin L 60-66 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 220   @ SE Louisiana L 61-74 11%    
  Feb 24, 2025 343   @ New Orleans L 71-75 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 303   Incarnate Word L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 03, 2025 316   Houston Christian L 67-69 44%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 3 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.3 2.8 6.1 6.1 1.6 0.1 16.9 11th
12th 4.6 13.5 22.1 20.1 11.3 3.1 0.2 74.9 12th
Total 4.6 13.5 22.4 22.9 17.7 11.2 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12 0.7% 0.7
7-13 2.1% 2.1
6-14 4.9% 4.9
5-15 11.2% 11.2
4-16 17.7% 17.7
3-17 22.9% 22.9
2-18 22.4% 22.4
1-19 13.5% 13.5
0-20 4.6% 4.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%