Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.0#352
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#137
Pace68.1#218
Improvement+0.1#164

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#354
First Shot-7.5#351
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#210
Layup/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#262
Freethrows-1.8#274
Improvement-0.2#206

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#329
First Shot-3.3#285
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#279
Layups/Dunks-5.8#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
Freethrows+2.7#57
Improvement+0.3#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.0 15.7
.500 or above 2.2% 14.0% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 10.3% 27.4% 10.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 26.9% 11.2% 27.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 48 - 128 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 41   @ Iowa L 63-90 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 249   @ South Dakota L 68-80 14%    
  Nov 08, 2024 23   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -15.3 -7.8 -8.8
  Nov 13, 2024 275   Southern W 70-68 34%     1 - 1 -6.9 -5.6 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 2   @ Connecticut L 46-81 0.3%    1 - 2 -11.7 -16.8 +6.1
  Nov 21, 2024 51   @ Oklahoma L 57-82 1%    
  Nov 25, 2024 344   @ Stonehill L 66-70 37%    
  Nov 30, 2024 140   Purdue Fort Wayne L 68-80 15%    
  Dec 05, 2024 357   @ Houston Christian L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 07, 2024 308   @ Incarnate Word L 69-77 23%    
  Dec 15, 2024 196   South Alabama L 65-73 23%    
  Dec 18, 2024 209   Abilene Christian L 65-73 25%    
  Dec 21, 2024 121   @ South Florida L 60-79 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 91   McNeese St. L 60-76 8%    
  Jan 06, 2025 220   Nicholls St. L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 316   @ Northwestern St. L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 13, 2025 191   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 68-83 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 358   New Orleans W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 20, 2025 271   SE Louisiana L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 290   @ Lamar L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 27, 2025 182   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-72 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 316   Northwestern St. L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 03, 2025 212   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 08, 2025 220   @ Nicholls St. L 61-74 13%    
  Feb 10, 2025 91   @ McNeese St. L 57-79 3%    
  Feb 15, 2025 290   Lamar L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 17, 2025 182   Stephen F. Austin L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 271   @ SE Louisiana L 64-74 19%    
  Feb 24, 2025 358   @ New Orleans L 72-74 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 308   Incarnate Word L 72-74 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 357   Houston Christian W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 1.2 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.8 5.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.6 6.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 18.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.5 7.2 5.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 20.2 11th
12th 0.8 3.2 5.5 5.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 18.2 12th
Total 0.8 3.2 6.8 10.2 13.0 14.2 13.5 12.0 9.3 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 23.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 18.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-9 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-10 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
9-11 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.6
8-12 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
7-13 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-14 13.5% 13.5
5-15 14.2% 14.2
4-16 13.0% 13.0
3-17 10.2% 10.2
2-18 6.8% 6.8
1-19 3.2% 3.2
0-20 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%