Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#10
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#28
Pace62.8#327
Improvement+0.7#134

Offense
Total Offense+13.1#2
First Shot+11.5#2
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#95
Layup/Dunks+7.0#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#33
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement+0.1#157

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#80
First Shot+1.4#127
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#31
Layups/Dunks+1.4#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows-1.9#317
Improvement+0.6#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
#1 Seed 8.3% 9.7% 2.8%
Top 2 Seed 21.6% 24.4% 10.2%
Top 4 Seed 52.7% 57.2% 33.9%
Top 6 Seed 77.0% 80.5% 62.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 98.9% 96.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 98.4% 95.2%
Average Seed 4.5 4.3 5.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.4% 96.6%
Conference Champion 47.6% 51.4% 31.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.5%
First Round98.1% 98.6% 95.7%
Second Round81.0% 82.8% 73.7%
Sweet Sixteen47.4% 49.5% 38.3%
Elite Eight23.8% 25.4% 17.4%
Final Four11.0% 11.8% 7.9%
Championship Game5.2% 5.6% 3.5%
National Champion2.3% 2.5% 1.6%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 6
Quad 27 - 316 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 45 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 296   Sacred Heart W 92-56 99%     1 - 0 +25.8 +10.3 +14.2
  Nov 09, 2024 353   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.2 +13.8 +9.6
  Nov 13, 2024 335   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +27.0 +21.4 +10.6
  Nov 19, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +19.1 -0.6 +18.7
  Nov 25, 2024 37   Memphis L 97-99 OT 67%     4 - 1 +10.1 +23.8 -13.5
  Nov 26, 2024 76   Colorado L 72-73 81%     4 - 2 +6.5 +14.4 -8.0
  Nov 27, 2024 47   Dayton L 67-85 72%     4 - 3 -7.2 +3.1 -11.7
  Nov 30, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99%     5 - 3 +37.1 +19.3 +18.6
  Dec 04, 2024 14   Baylor W 76-72 65%     6 - 3 +17.0 +18.5 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 32   @ Texas W 76-65 54%     7 - 3 +26.6 +19.8 +8.1
  Dec 14, 2024 6   Gonzaga W 77-71 40%     8 - 3 +25.3 +13.3 +12.1
  Dec 18, 2024 48   Xavier W 94-89 OT 80%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +12.8 +22.7 -10.1
  Dec 21, 2024 70   @ Butler W 78-74 72%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.9 +11.2 +3.8
  Jan 01, 2025 99   @ DePaul W 79-70 81%    
  Jan 05, 2025 75   Providence W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 08, 2025 50   @ Villanova W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 68   @ Georgetown W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 46   Creighton W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 21, 2025 70   Butler W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 48   @ Xavier W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 99   DePaul W 82-67 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 20   @ Marquette L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 07, 2025 17   St. John's W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 46   @ Creighton W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 18, 2025 50   Villanova W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 23, 2025 17   @ St. John's L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 68   Georgetown W 79-67 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 75   @ Providence W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 20   Marquette W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 73-56 94%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.1 11.7 12.8 9.3 4.2 1.1 47.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.3 8.5 5.4 1.6 0.2 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 2.7 1.6 0.3 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.4 9.4 14.5 16.4 17.4 14.5 9.4 4.2 1.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 100.0% 4.2    4.2 0.0
18-2 98.2% 9.3    8.6 0.7
17-3 88.8% 12.8    10.2 2.6 0.0
16-4 67.3% 11.7    7.3 3.9 0.5
15-5 37.4% 6.1    2.5 2.8 0.7 0.1
14-6 14.0% 2.0    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.6% 47.6 34.4 11.0 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 100.0% 59.0% 41.0% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.2% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.6 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.4% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 2.0 3.1 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.5% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 2.7 1.7 4.6 5.0 2.5 0.6 0.1 100.0%
16-4 17.4% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 3.6 0.5 2.5 5.6 5.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.4% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 4.7 0.1 0.4 2.6 4.5 4.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 14.5% 99.9% 23.9% 76.0% 5.7 0.0 0.6 1.7 3.7 4.3 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.4% 99.7% 19.7% 80.0% 6.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 6.4% 97.9% 15.5% 82.4% 7.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 97.5%
11-9 3.8% 93.4% 14.2% 79.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.2 92.4%
10-10 1.8% 78.3% 8.9% 69.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 76.2%
9-11 0.8% 46.4% 8.5% 37.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 41.4%
8-12 0.2% 16.8% 3.4% 13.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 13.9%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.4% 30.3% 68.1% 4.5 8.3 13.3 16.3 14.7 13.0 11.3 9.3 6.4 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 1.6 97.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 58.0 38.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 52.3 39.8 8.0