Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.3#2
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#197
Pace65.2#297
Improvement+0.1#151

Offense
Total Offense+10.5#7
First Shot+8.4#19
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#74
Layup/Dunks+10.1#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#82
Freethrows-1.2#243
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#4
First Shot+8.2#11
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#84
Layups/Dunks+0.9#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#35
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.0% 8.1% 3.3%
#1 Seed 26.5% 30.0% 14.4%
Top 2 Seed 46.8% 51.6% 30.1%
Top 4 Seed 71.6% 76.2% 55.6%
Top 6 Seed 85.0% 88.5% 72.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.5% 98.4% 94.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.4% 97.0% 90.5%
Average Seed 3.4 3.1 4.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.5% 98.3%
Conference Champion 63.2% 65.7% 54.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 1.0%
First Round97.3% 98.3% 93.8%
Second Round88.2% 90.4% 80.6%
Sweet Sixteen64.5% 67.5% 54.4%
Elite Eight42.5% 45.3% 33.0%
Final Four26.6% 28.8% 19.0%
Championship Game15.8% 17.2% 10.9%
National Champion9.1% 10.0% 5.9%

Next Game: Memphis (Neutral) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 4
Quad 27 - 115 - 5
Quad 35 - 020 - 6
Quad 45 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 331   Sacred Heart W 92-56 99%     1 - 0 +22.7 +6.8 +14.5
  Nov 09, 2024 341   New Hampshire W 92-53 99.6%    2 - 0 +24.1 +13.2 +11.1
  Nov 13, 2024 336   Le Moyne W 90-49 99.5%    3 - 0 +27.2 +21.1 +11.0
  Nov 19, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99.7%    4 - 0 +19.0 -0.6 +18.5
  Nov 25, 2024 33   Memphis W 79-71 78%    
  Nov 30, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-50 100.0%   
  Dec 04, 2024 11   Baylor W 74-67 73%    
  Dec 08, 2024 31   @ Texas W 72-68 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 75-77 44%    
  Dec 18, 2024 36   Xavier W 79-67 85%    
  Dec 21, 2024 85   @ Butler W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 01, 2025 111   @ DePaul W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 05, 2025 77   Providence W 73-57 93%    
  Jan 08, 2025 69   @ Villanova W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 126   @ Georgetown W 79-64 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 17   Creighton W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 21, 2025 85   Butler W 80-63 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 36   @ Xavier W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 111   DePaul W 81-62 95%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   @ Marquette W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 07, 2025 16   St. John's W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 17   @ Creighton W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 88   @ Seton Hall W 66-55 84%    
  Feb 18, 2025 69   Villanova W 77-62 91%    
  Feb 23, 2025 16   @ St. John's W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 126   Georgetown W 82-61 96%    
  Mar 01, 2025 77   @ Providence W 70-60 80%    
  Mar 04, 2025 15   Marquette W 76-67 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 88   Seton Hall W 69-52 93%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 9.4 15.1 16.1 12.3 5.5 63.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 6.4 5.5 2.6 0.5 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.3 5.6 8.6 12.1 15.3 17.6 16.5 12.3 5.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 5.5    5.5
19-1 100.0% 12.3    12.2 0.2
18-2 97.2% 16.1    14.7 1.3 0.0
17-3 85.4% 15.1    11.6 3.3 0.2
16-4 61.5% 9.4    5.3 3.5 0.5 0.0
15-5 31.9% 3.9    1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 63.2% 63.2 51.0 10.3 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 5.5% 100.0% 70.6% 29.4% 1.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 12.3% 100.0% 64.8% 35.2% 1.4 8.4 3.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 16.5% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 1.7 7.9 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.6% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 2.4 4.2 6.0 4.3 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.3% 99.9% 41.6% 58.3% 3.4 1.3 3.0 4.4 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 12.1% 99.6% 36.0% 63.6% 4.6 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 8.6% 98.2% 27.8% 70.4% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.5%
13-7 5.6% 94.7% 21.3% 73.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 93.2%
12-8 3.3% 85.0% 16.4% 68.6% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 82.1%
11-9 1.6% 73.9% 13.2% 60.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 69.9%
10-10 0.9% 51.8% 9.1% 42.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 47.0%
9-11 0.4% 16.8% 4.3% 12.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.0%
8-12 0.2% 7.1% 4.7% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.5% 45.2% 52.3% 3.4 26.5 20.3 13.9 10.9 7.7 5.7 4.8 3.4 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.5 95.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 85.6 14.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 84.1 14.6 1.2