Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#30
Expected Predictive Rating+13.7#35
Pace62.4#328
Improvement-1.2#251

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#13
First Shot+9.4#11
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#109
Layup/Dunks+5.5#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#29
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement-3.3#323

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#83
First Shot+0.8#159
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#14
Layups/Dunks+0.1#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#83
Freethrows-2.6#337
Improvement+2.1#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 3.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 13.1% 20.5% 4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.1% 98.8% 95.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.6% 98.5% 94.5%
Average Seed 7.9 7.5 8.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
First Round96.9% 98.7% 94.6%
Second Round53.1% 57.2% 48.0%
Sweet Sixteen13.8% 16.1% 10.9%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.9% 4.2%
Final Four1.7% 1.9% 1.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 6
Quad 27 - 313 - 9
Quad 34 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 259   Sacred Heart W 92-56 97%     1 - 0 +27.9 +10.2 +16.3
  Nov 09, 2024 352   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.2 +13.1 +10.2
  Nov 13, 2024 356   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +24.2 +16.5 +12.6
  Nov 19, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +20.5 +0.2 +19.4
  Nov 25, 2024 49   Memphis L 97-99 OT 60%     4 - 1 +9.4 +25.2 -15.7
  Nov 26, 2024 89   Colorado L 72-73 78%     4 - 2 +4.8 +14.7 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 81   Dayton L 67-85 76%     4 - 3 -11.1 +1.2 -13.8
  Nov 30, 2024 362   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99.5%    5 - 3 +33.8 +19.4 +15.3
  Dec 04, 2024 26   Baylor W 76-72 58%     6 - 3 +16.0 +19.4 -2.7
  Dec 08, 2024 50   @ Texas W 76-65 51%     7 - 3 +24.9 +17.6 +8.5
  Dec 14, 2024 9   Gonzaga W 77-71 32%     8 - 3 +24.8 +12.4 +12.5
  Dec 18, 2024 38   Xavier W 94-89 OT 66%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.8 +24.6 -9.9
  Dec 21, 2024 65   @ Butler W 78-74 61%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +15.1 +9.9 +5.3
  Jan 01, 2025 122   @ DePaul W 81-68 80%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +18.3 +15.0 +4.0
  Jan 05, 2025 86   Providence W 87-84 84%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +6.7 +20.6 -13.8
  Jan 08, 2025 45   @ Villanova L 66-68 49%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +12.4 +10.9 +1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 78   @ Georgetown W 68-60 66%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +17.8 +7.1 +11.3
  Jan 18, 2025 34   Creighton L 63-68 63%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +5.8 +8.4 -3.6
  Jan 21, 2025 65   Butler W 80-78 OT 79%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.7 +8.1 -0.3
  Jan 25, 2025 38   @ Xavier L 72-76 46%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +11.2 +10.8 +0.2
  Jan 29, 2025 122   DePaul W 72-61 90%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +10.9 +6.7 +5.3
  Feb 01, 2025 22   @ Marquette W 77-69 34%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +26.3 +18.7 +8.1
  Feb 07, 2025 15   St. John's L 62-68 47%     16 - 7 8 - 4 +8.9 +1.5 +7.4
  Feb 11, 2025 34   @ Creighton W 70-66 42%     17 - 7 9 - 4 +20.2 +8.8 +11.6
  Feb 15, 2025 155   @ Seton Hall L 68-69 OT 85%     17 - 8 9 - 5 +2.0 +3.4 -1.4
  Feb 18, 2025 45   Villanova W 66-59 69%     18 - 8 10 - 5 +16.0 +6.2 +11.0
  Feb 23, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 75-89 27%     18 - 9 10 - 6 +6.3 +12.9 -6.0
  Feb 26, 2025 78   Georgetown W 93-79 82%     19 - 9 11 - 6 +18.4 +30.8 -11.5
  Mar 01, 2025 86   @ Providence W 75-63 69%     20 - 9 12 - 6 +21.1 +17.2 +5.8
  Mar 05, 2025 22   Marquette W 73-72 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 155   Seton Hall W 74-58 94%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 18.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 3.5 33.8 37.3 3rd
4th 1.4 42.0 43.4 4th
5th 1.1 1.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.5 45.6 51.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 51.9% 98.9% 16.9% 82.0% 7.4 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 5.3 11.4 17.9 9.5 1.4 0.1 0.6 98.7%
13-7 45.6% 95.6% 11.0% 84.5% 8.5 0.1 0.3 1.6 5.3 14.1 15.1 6.5 0.6 2.0 95.0%
12-8 2.5% 87.2% 8.8% 78.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.3 86.0%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.1% 14.0% 83.1% 7.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.3 6.9 16.8 32.5 25.4 8.6 0.8 2.9 96.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.8% 100.0% 5.3 0.1 4.1 16.5 39.7 27.4 10.7 1.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.4% 99.8% 7.3 0.3 2.5 15.9 38.8 32.7 9.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.6% 98.8% 7.9 0.7 4.4 24.1 44.1 22.6 2.9 0.1
Lose Out 0.8% 79.2% 9.6 7.8 22.1 42.9 6.5