Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#27
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#44
Pace62.7#325
Improvement-2.1#281

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#6
First Shot+9.9#7
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#107
Layup/Dunks+5.6#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#26
Freethrows+1.4#92
Improvement-3.1#329

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#94
First Shot+0.5#171
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#16
Layups/Dunks+0.0#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#86
Freethrows-2.7#342
Improvement+1.0#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 10.1% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 21.4% 35.6% 14.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.9% 96.6% 89.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.7% 95.9% 88.4%
Average Seed 7.7 6.9 8.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.8% 98.1%
Conference Champion 4.9% 11.5% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 1.1% 4.8%
First Round90.0% 96.0% 87.3%
Second Round52.6% 60.9% 48.7%
Sweet Sixteen17.7% 23.9% 14.9%
Elite Eight7.1% 9.4% 6.0%
Final Four2.4% 3.6% 1.8%
Championship Game0.8% 1.4% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 31.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 7
Quad 26 - 312 - 10
Quad 34 - 116 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 283   Sacred Heart W 92-56 98%     1 - 0 +26.5 +8.9 +16.3
  Nov 09, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.0 +13.6 +9.6
  Nov 13, 2024 354   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +25.1 +19.1 +10.9
  Nov 19, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +19.5 -0.4 +18.9
  Nov 25, 2024 39   Memphis L 97-99 OT 59%     4 - 1 +9.8 +25.4 -15.5
  Nov 26, 2024 98   Colorado L 72-73 80%     4 - 2 +4.2 +13.1 -9.0
  Nov 27, 2024 83   Dayton L 67-85 76%     4 - 3 -11.0 +0.6 -13.1
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99%     5 - 3 +35.7 +19.2 +17.5
  Dec 04, 2024 22   Baylor W 76-72 56%     6 - 3 +16.7 +18.6 -1.3
  Dec 08, 2024 36   @ Texas W 76-65 46%     7 - 3 +26.3 +19.1 +8.4
  Dec 14, 2024 10   Gonzaga W 77-71 36%     8 - 3 +24.0 +11.0 +13.1
  Dec 18, 2024 41   Xavier W 94-89 OT 69%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.0 +24.0 -10.1
  Dec 21, 2024 74   @ Butler W 78-74 65%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.2 +10.2 +4.0
  Jan 01, 2025 119   @ DePaul W 81-68 80%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +18.2 +13.9 +4.9
  Jan 05, 2025 76   Providence W 87-84 81%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +8.0 +21.8 -13.6
  Jan 08, 2025 46   @ Villanova L 66-68 53%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +11.6 +9.0 +2.2
  Jan 11, 2025 84   @ Georgetown W 68-60 68%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +17.5 +7.6 +10.4
  Jan 18, 2025 26   Creighton L 63-68 60%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +6.8 +8.6 -2.9
  Jan 21, 2025 74   Butler W 80-78 OT 81%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.1 +8.5 -1.5
  Jan 25, 2025 41   @ Xavier L 72-76 50%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +10.1 +10.0 -0.1
  Jan 29, 2025 119   DePaul W 72-61 90%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +11.1 +5.8 +6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 18   @ Marquette L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 07, 2025 13   St. John's L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 11, 2025 26   @ Creighton L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 141   @ Seton Hall W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 18, 2025 46   Villanova W 75-69 72%    
  Feb 23, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 69-75 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 84   Georgetown W 75-65 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 76   @ Providence W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 05, 2025 18   Marquette W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 141   Seton Hall W 76-61 92%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 2.5 0.6 4.9 1st
2nd 0.4 4.0 6.8 1.1 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 8.3 12.3 2.9 25.1 3rd
4th 0.4 4.7 14.5 16.0 4.5 0.1 40.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.6 4.4 0.8 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.5 11.7 20.5 25.4 20.9 11.6 3.5 0.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-4 69.9% 2.5    0.7 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 15.4% 1.8    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.5% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 4.4 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 100.0%
15-5 11.6% 99.9% 20.7% 79.2% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.3 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 99.9%
14-6 20.9% 98.9% 17.6% 81.3% 7.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.4 6.9 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.2 98.7%
13-7 25.4% 96.6% 12.7% 83.9% 8.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 8.8 5.9 2.0 0.1 0.9 96.1%
12-8 20.5% 90.6% 10.1% 80.6% 8.8 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.5 5.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 1.9 89.6%
11-9 11.7% 79.9% 8.2% 71.7% 9.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 3.3 1.3 0.0 2.3 78.2%
10-10 4.5% 62.5% 5.8% 56.6% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.7 60.1%
9-11 1.2% 28.3% 3.3% 25.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 25.9%
8-12 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.9% 13.6% 78.4% 7.7 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.9 5.8 10.8 17.0 21.9 17.0 11.0 3.6 0.1 8.1 90.7%