Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#79
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#95
Pace66.4#226
Improvement+0.6#155

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#62
First Shot+2.1#113
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#25
Layup/Dunks-1.5#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#41
Freethrows+0.8#128
Improvement+4.3#20

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#109
First Shot+0.3#176
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#52
Layups/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#41
Freethrows-0.4#216
Improvement-3.6#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 11.6 13.3
.500 or above 3.6% 15.9% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 8.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 23 - 85 - 17
Quad 34 - 29 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 197   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 86%     1 - 0 -0.6 -7.1 +6.9
  Nov 09, 2024 324   Stonehill W 76-49 95%     2 - 0 +14.7 -6.2 +20.2
  Nov 12, 2024 250   Hampton W 60-51 91%     3 - 0 +1.6 -6.4 +9.4
  Nov 16, 2024 337   Green Bay W 79-65 97%     4 - 0 +0.0 +2.0 -1.4
  Nov 19, 2024 303   Delaware St. W 78-48 94%     5 - 0 +19.4 +13.3 +11.0
  Nov 27, 2024 50   Oklahoma L 77-79 36%     5 - 1 +8.9 +8.8 +0.0
  Nov 28, 2024 129   Davidson L 58-69 70%     5 - 2 -9.3 -8.0 -2.8
  Nov 29, 2024 57   Indiana L 73-89 37%     5 - 3 -5.4 +9.8 -16.1
  Dec 03, 2024 26   BYU W 83-64 31%     6 - 3 +31.3 +24.9 +8.9
  Dec 07, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 63-69 59%     6 - 4 -1.2 -5.6 +4.3
  Dec 10, 2024 120   @ DePaul W 70-63 OT 58%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +12.1 -4.8 +16.5
  Dec 14, 2024 106   St. Bonaventure L 70-74 62%     7 - 5 +0.1 +9.8 -10.3
  Dec 20, 2024 14   St. John's L 70-72 22%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +13.3 +7.4 +5.9
  Dec 31, 2024 29   Marquette L 50-78 32%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -15.8 -10.5 -8.7
  Jan 05, 2025 32   @ Connecticut L 84-87 19%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +13.7 +22.5 -9.1
  Jan 08, 2025 66   Butler W 84-65 56%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +24.8 +15.5 +10.1
  Jan 11, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 91-85 83%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +3.1 +19.7 -16.6
  Jan 14, 2025 31   @ Creighton L 64-84 18%     9 - 9 3 - 4 -3.0 -1.4 -1.2
  Jan 17, 2025 43   @ Villanova L 73-75 25%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +12.3 +8.0 +4.3
  Jan 25, 2025 73   Georgetown W 78-68 58%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +15.2 +19.2 -2.8
  Jan 28, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 69-67 69%     11 - 10 5 - 5 +4.2 +3.9 +0.4
  Feb 01, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 66-68 11%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +18.4 +5.9 +12.6
  Feb 05, 2025 31   Creighton L 69-80 33%     11 - 12 5 - 7 +0.9 +2.0 -1.0
  Feb 08, 2025 66   @ Butler L 81-82 36%     11 - 13 5 - 8 +9.9 +14.0 -4.1
  Feb 12, 2025 42   Xavier L 82-91 42%     11 - 14 5 - 9 +0.4 +10.0 -9.1
  Feb 15, 2025 43   Villanova W 75-62 42%     12 - 14 6 - 9 +22.2 +11.3 +12.2
  Feb 19, 2025 73   @ Georgetown L 72-93 38%     12 - 15 6 - 10 -10.7 +4.9 -15.1
  Feb 25, 2025 29   @ Marquette L 68-78 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 32   Connecticut L 70-74 35%    
  Mar 05, 2025 120   DePaul W 76-69 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 42   @ Xavier L 71-78 24%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.5 0.7 1.1 6th
7th 3.4 14.2 8.2 0.6 26.5 7th
8th 4.2 28.6 20.0 2.8 0.0 55.6 8th
9th 6.3 9.3 1.2 16.8 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 10.5 41.3 35.4 11.5 1.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 1.4% 5.1% 2.2% 2.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.0%
9-11 11.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 11.4 0.1 0.1 11.3 0.1%
8-12 35.4% 0.9% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 35.1
7-13 41.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.7 0.1 0.2 41.1
6-14 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 10.5
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 4.3% 12.0 4.3
Lose Out 5.9%