Stonehill
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.3#344
Expected Predictive Rating-15.2#345
Pace69.6#169
Improvement+0.6#115

Offense
Total Offense-8.8#358
First Shot-3.9#289
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#356
Layup/Dunks-8.2#356
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#43
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+0.7#81

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#291
First Shot-2.0#244
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#273
Layups/Dunks-0.4#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
Freethrows-2.6#311
Improvement-0.1#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.5% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 11.8% 23.9% 9.0%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 54.5% 41.1%
Conference Champion 4.9% 7.7% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 11.2% 18.0%
First Four5.4% 7.3% 4.9%
First Round2.2% 3.1% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 18.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 56   @ Notre Dame L 60-89 2%     0 - 1 -16.9 -4.3 -13.4
  Nov 09, 2024 77   @ Providence L 49-76 3%     0 - 2 -16.7 -17.7 +1.9
  Nov 14, 2024 288   @ Robert Morris L 51-63 20%     0 - 3 -15.5 -20.5 +4.6
  Nov 15, 2024 358   New Orleans W 80-54 58%     1 - 3 +11.8 -0.7 +12.1
  Nov 17, 2024 355   Lindenwood L 74-75 57%     1 - 4 -15.0 -2.9 -12.1
  Nov 21, 2024 159   Bryant L 71-80 19%    
  Nov 25, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 70-66 63%    
  Nov 27, 2024 15   @ Marquette L 56-86 0.2%   
  Dec 01, 2024 224   Quinnipiac L 69-75 28%    
  Dec 15, 2024 133   @ Boston College L 60-77 6%    
  Dec 18, 2024 154   @ Umass Lowell L 65-80 8%    
  Dec 22, 2024 341   New Hampshire W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 29, 2024 237   @ Lafayette L 59-71 15%    
  Jan 03, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 05, 2025 343   @ St. Francis (PA) L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 10, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 12, 2025 349   @ Chicago St. L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 20, 2025 336   @ Le Moyne L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 24, 2025 349   Chicago St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 26, 2025 342   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 30, 2025 280   Wagner L 57-60 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 256   Central Connecticut St. L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 343   St. Francis (PA) W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 280   @ Wagner L 54-63 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 256   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 27, 2025 342   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 336   Le Moyne W 70-68 55%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.7 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.5 4.7 1.1 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.8 5.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.6 5.6 1.1 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.2 5.3 1.2 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 4.4 1.2 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 10.2 9th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.6 5.2 8.3 11.6 13.4 14.1 13.2 11.2 8.4 5.5 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 95.5% 0.5    0.5 0.1
13-3 79.6% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
12-4 51.3% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-5 20.5% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
10-6 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 32.7% 32.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.6% 27.9% 27.9% 16.0 0.2 0.4
13-3 1.5% 23.0% 23.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.2
12-4 3.2% 21.0% 21.0% 16.0 0.7 2.5
11-5 5.5% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.9 4.6
10-6 8.4% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.9 7.5
9-7 11.2% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.8 10.4
8-8 13.2% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.7 12.4
7-9 14.1% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 13.6
6-10 13.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 13.0
5-11 11.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.5
4-12 8.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-13 5.2% 5.2
2-14 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
1-15 1.0% 1.0
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%