Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#350
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#315
Pace63.0#317
Improvement+1.2#134

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#338
First Shot-3.3#276
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#338
Layup/Dunks-2.2#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#240
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement+1.7#104

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#340
First Shot-1.8#232
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#363
Layups/Dunks-3.9#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement-0.5#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.4% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 3.0%
First Round0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 412 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 117   @ George Washington L 59-76 5%     0 - 1 -11.7 -5.5 -7.5
  Nov 06, 2024 330   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 31%     1 - 1 -2.9 -1.3 -1.5
  Nov 13, 2024 354   Canisius W 62-52 62%     2 - 1 -6.1 -13.2 +8.5
  Nov 16, 2024 275   @ Columbia L 63-77 19%     2 - 2 -17.8 -8.3 -11.0
  Nov 24, 2024 294   @ Air Force L 48-82 22%     2 - 3 -38.8 -17.1 -28.4
  Nov 27, 2024 112   @ California L 55-81 5%     2 - 4 -20.2 -13.0 -9.1
  Nov 30, 2024 332   @ Sacramento St. W 66-60 32%     3 - 4 -2.2 -0.7 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 59-87 2%     3 - 5 -17.3 -3.5 -15.7
  Dec 07, 2024 298   Lafayette L 73-77 40%     3 - 6 -14.2 +4.6 -19.2
  Dec 15, 2024 137   @ Kent St. L 57-82 7%     3 - 7 -21.2 -8.3 -14.7
  Dec 18, 2024 299   @ Binghamton L 60-62 23%     3 - 8 -7.1 -8.5 +1.2
  Dec 22, 2024 41   @ West Virginia L 46-67 1%     3 - 9 -6.4 -13.2 +5.3
  Jan 03, 2025 324   Stonehill W 76-69 48%     4 - 9 1 - 0 -5.3 -3.1 -2.1
  Jan 05, 2025 197   Central Connecticut St. L 50-62 22%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -16.6 -13.8 -4.9
  Jan 10, 2025 331   @ St. Francis (PA) L 59-73 32%     4 - 11 1 - 2 -22.0 -9.7 -14.4
  Jan 12, 2025 357   @ Le Moyne L 63-79 44%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -27.3 -11.1 -17.8
  Jan 18, 2025 347   @ Wagner W 69-65 39%     5 - 12 2 - 3 -6.1 +3.8 -9.4
  Jan 20, 2025 323   @ LIU Brooklyn L 63-72 OT 28%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -15.9 -9.4 -6.3
  Jan 24, 2025 347   Wagner W 71-66 59%     6 - 13 3 - 4 -10.2 +6.5 -15.8
  Jan 26, 2025 323   LIU Brooklyn W 85-80 2OT 47%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -7.0 -2.6 -5.2
  Jan 30, 2025 331   St. Francis (PA) W 62-58 51%     8 - 13 5 - 4 -9.1 -15.3 +6.3
  Feb 01, 2025 318   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 67-60 27%     9 - 13 6 - 4 +0.3 -1.9 +2.8
  Feb 06, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. L 78-85 51%     9 - 14 6 - 5 -20.2 -3.1 -16.6
  Feb 08, 2025 357   Le Moyne W 82-78 63%     10 - 14 7 - 5 -12.4 +3.0 -15.2
  Feb 13, 2025 197   @ Central Connecticut St. L 63-73 11%     10 - 15 7 - 6 -9.5 -4.0 -6.0
  Feb 15, 2025 324   @ Stonehill L 73-85 29%     10 - 16 7 - 7 -19.2 +4.2 -24.7
  Feb 20, 2025 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 65-60 46%     11 - 16 8 - 7 -6.8 -8.0 +1.5
  Feb 27, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 71-66 71%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 4.3 4.3 2nd
3rd 10.9 55.0 65.9 3rd
4th 18.0 11.5 29.5 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 29.2 70.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 70.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 2.4 68.4
8-8 29.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.9 28.4
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 16.0 3.3 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.7%
Lose Out 17.8%