Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.3#359
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#238
Pace62.0#347
Improvement-0.7#271

Offense
Total Offense-9.3#362
First Shot-6.8#339
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#307
Layup/Dunks-6.8#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#292
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-1.0#317

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#332
First Shot-1.2#222
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#334
Layups/Dunks-1.1#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#272
Freethrows+0.9#133
Improvement+0.3#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.8% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.5% 15.8% 4.7%
.500 or above in Conference 27.7% 38.5% 25.6%
Conference Champion 2.3% 4.2% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.1% 20.5% 31.9%
First Four3.0% 4.5% 2.7%
First Round1.0% 2.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 16.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 49 - 139 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 143   @ George Washington L 59-76 5%     0 - 1 -13.0 -9.4 -4.9
  Nov 06, 2024 332   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 24%     1 - 1 -1.9 +0.9 -2.8
  Nov 13, 2024 351   Canisius W 62-52 56%     2 - 1 -6.0 -11.5 +6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 190   @ Columbia L 63-77 8%     2 - 2 -12.4 -6.1 -7.8
  Nov 24, 2024 292   @ Air Force L 57-67 16%    
  Nov 27, 2024 102   @ California L 56-78 2%    
  Nov 30, 2024 305   @ Sacramento St. L 56-65 19%    
  Dec 01, 2024 57   @ San Francisco L 53-79 1%    
  Dec 07, 2024 240   Lafayette L 59-66 25%    
  Dec 15, 2024 123   @ Kent St. L 54-74 3%    
  Dec 18, 2024 330   @ Binghamton L 61-69 24%    
  Dec 22, 2024 56   @ West Virginia L 53-79 1%    
  Jan 03, 2025 343   Stonehill W 64-63 53%    
  Jan 05, 2025 254   Central Connecticut St. L 60-67 28%    
  Jan 10, 2025 342   @ St. Francis (PA) L 63-68 32%    
  Jan 12, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 63-69 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 281   @ Wagner L 51-62 16%    
  Jan 20, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 24, 2025 281   Wagner L 54-59 32%    
  Jan 26, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 342   St. Francis (PA) W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   Le Moyne L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 254   @ Central Connecticut St. L 57-70 14%    
  Feb 15, 2025 343   @ Stonehill L 61-66 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 68-66 55%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.3 4.1 0.5 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.6 4.9 0.8 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.0 6.1 1.1 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.4 5.6 1.4 0.0 16.9 8th
9th 0.7 2.7 5.4 6.6 4.1 1.0 0.0 20.5 9th
Total 0.7 2.7 5.9 9.7 12.2 13.9 14.5 12.7 10.6 7.2 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 95.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 78.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
12-4 54.6% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 21.7% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 26.9% 26.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 27.9% 27.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 0.6% 25.2% 25.2% 16.0 0.2 0.5
12-4 1.4% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.2
11-5 2.7% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.3 2.4
10-6 4.8% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.4 4.4
9-7 7.2% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.5 6.7
8-8 10.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 10.2
7-9 12.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 12.3
6-10 14.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 14.2
5-11 13.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.8
4-12 12.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.2
3-13 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
2-14 5.9% 5.9
1-15 2.7% 2.7
0-16 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%