Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#307
Expected Predictive Rating-13.9#345
Pace62.0#342
Improvement-0.4#218

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#331
First Shot-3.8#290
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#288
Layup/Dunks-3.6#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#55
Freethrows-2.8#313
Improvement+0.5#145

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#223
First Shot+0.3#162
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#295
Layups/Dunks+5.4#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#271
Freethrows-3.4#332
Improvement-0.9#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.9% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 6.9% 10.7% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.5% 26.8% 18.4%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.3% 24.9% 35.4%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.1%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 72 - 11
Quad 48 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 244   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 29%     0 - 1 -8.7 -12.8 +3.9
  Nov 12, 2024 107   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 10%     0 - 2 -3.2 -9.0 +4.6
  Nov 16, 2024 146   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 31%     0 - 3 -12.3 -3.8 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2024 110   @ California L 77-83 10%     0 - 4 +0.6 +5.1 -4.4
  Nov 27, 2024 278   @ Air Force W 63-61 34%     1 - 4 -1.4 -6.7 +5.4
  Nov 30, 2024 358   Mercyhurst L 60-66 83%     1 - 5 -23.5 -12.5 -11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 335   @ Denver L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 07, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 14, 2024 216   UC Davis L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 17, 2024 74   @ Oregon St. L 55-73 5%    
  Jan 04, 2025 258   Portland St. W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 288   Idaho W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 239   Eastern Washington L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 294   @ Northern Arizona L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 153   @ Northern Colorado L 64-75 16%    
  Jan 23, 2025 230   Idaho St. L 61-62 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 199   Weber St. L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 138   @ Montana St. L 60-72 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   @ Montana L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 06, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 288   @ Idaho L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 13, 2025 153   Northern Colorado L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 294   Northern Arizona W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 20, 2025 199   @ Weber St. L 60-69 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 230   @ Idaho St. L 58-65 28%    
  Feb 27, 2025 206   Montana L 66-69 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 138   Montana St. L 63-69 30%    
  Mar 03, 2025 258   @ Portland St. L 67-72 32%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.1 2.7 0.2 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.3 7.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 18.4 9th
10th 0.5 2.0 4.4 5.8 5.1 2.3 0.5 20.5 10th
Total 0.5 2.0 4.7 7.7 11.2 13.6 13.9 13.0 10.9 8.6 5.9 3.8 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 95.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 70.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 42.6% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 15.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 26.7% 26.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 18.9% 18.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
12-6 2.2% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
11-7 3.8% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.4
10-8 5.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.6
9-9 8.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.2
8-10 10.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 10.7
7-11 13.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.9
6-12 13.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.9
5-13 13.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.5
4-14 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
3-15 7.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.7
2-16 4.7% 4.7
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%