Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.9#338
Expected Predictive Rating-14.3#346
Pace62.0#342
Improvement-1.8#272

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#351
First Shot-6.2#337
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#285
Layup/Dunks-2.2#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#140
Freethrows-2.4#314
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#262
First Shot-1.9#234
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#277
Layups/Dunks+2.6#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#320
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement-1.9#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.3% 9.5% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 62.1% 46.9% 72.8%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 45 - 136 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 258   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 21%     0 - 1 -9.5 -14.9 +5.3
  Nov 12, 2024 67   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 3%     0 - 2 +1.2 -7.0 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2024 142   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 20%     0 - 3 -12.0 -3.0 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 115   @ California L 77-83 7%     0 - 4 +0.0 +2.2 -2.1
  Nov 27, 2024 284   @ Air Force W 63-61 24%     1 - 4 -1.6 -5.1 +3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 355   Mercyhurst L 60-66 72%     1 - 5 -22.8 -12.1 -11.5
  Dec 04, 2024 335   @ Denver L 59-80 37%     1 - 6 -28.6 -13.0 -17.8
  Dec 07, 2024 240   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 37%     1 - 7 -17.5 -14.2 -3.9
  Dec 14, 2024 233   UC Davis L 62-69 35%     1 - 8 -14.0 -6.8 -7.5
  Dec 17, 2024 86   @ Oregon St. L 45-82 4%     1 - 9 -27.6 -21.8 -7.5
  Jan 04, 2025 254   Portland St. W 56-53 40%     2 - 9 1 - 0 -5.3 -10.1 +5.3
  Jan 09, 2025 236   Idaho L 67-80 37%     2 - 10 1 - 1 -20.4 -3.2 -18.9
  Jan 11, 2025 259   Eastern Washington L 67-69 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 262   @ Northern Arizona L 64-72 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 174   @ Northern Colorado L 65-78 11%    
  Jan 23, 2025 232   Idaho St. L 61-65 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 227   Weber St. L 64-68 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 186   @ Montana St. L 59-72 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 187   @ Montana L 62-75 12%    
  Feb 06, 2025 259   @ Eastern Washington L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 08, 2025 236   @ Idaho L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 13, 2025 174   Northern Colorado L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 262   Northern Arizona L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 20, 2025 227   @ Weber St. L 61-71 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 232   @ Idaho St. L 58-68 18%    
  Feb 27, 2025 187   Montana L 65-72 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 186   Montana St. L 62-69 27%    
  Mar 03, 2025 254   @ Portland St. L 62-71 21%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.5 4.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.9 1.6 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.9 4.0 0.3 12.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.5 9.3 5.4 0.7 0.0 21.1 9th
10th 3.0 9.0 14.1 13.8 6.7 1.2 0.0 47.9 10th
Total 3.0 9.1 15.2 18.7 18.5 14.6 9.8 5.9 3.2 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 26.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 9.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 0.5% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.1 0.4
10-8 1.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 3.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 3.1
8-10 5.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.8
7-11 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-12 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.5
5-13 18.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.4
4-14 18.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 18.6
3-15 15.2% 15.2
2-16 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%