Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#87
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#85
Pace62.1#332
Improvement-5.3#346

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#45
First Shot+5.9#44
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#164
Layup/Dunks+2.2#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#96
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement+1.2#122

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#170
First Shot+1.2#138
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#277
Layups/Dunks+0.8#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#254
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement-6.4#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 1.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 11.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 41 - 7
Quad 22 - 23 - 9
Quad 34 - 17 - 10
Quad 413 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 80-57 92%     1 - 0 +13.4 +1.3 +12.2
  Nov 08, 2024 297   Weber St. W 76-48 93%     2 - 0 +17.9 +3.9 +16.5
  Nov 15, 2024 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-51 96%     3 - 0 +4.4 +1.0 +5.9
  Nov 21, 2024 39   Oregon L 75-78 38%     3 - 1 +6.6 +10.3 -3.8
  Nov 25, 2024 71   @ North Texas L 55-58 35%     3 - 2 +7.5 +0.8 +6.1
  Nov 30, 2024 222   UC Davis W 90-57 87%     4 - 2 +27.2 +25.4 +4.1
  Dec 07, 2024 253   Idaho W 78-62 90%     5 - 2 +8.3 +6.4 +3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 85   UC Irvine W 67-55 59%     6 - 2 +16.2 -0.3 +16.3
  Dec 17, 2024 332   Sacramento St. W 82-45 96%     7 - 2 +23.7 +8.1 +17.3
  Dec 22, 2024 143   College of Charleston W 74-65 70%     8 - 2 +10.0 +0.1 +9.7
  Dec 23, 2024 198   Oakland W 80-74 OT 79%     9 - 2 +3.9 +7.3 -3.2
  Dec 25, 2024 48   Nebraska L 66-78 33%     9 - 3 -1.0 +4.9 -7.0
  Dec 30, 2024 284   Portland W 89-79 92%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +0.5 +17.6 -16.2
  Jan 02, 2025 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 61-82 66%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -18.8 -3.4 -17.1
  Jan 04, 2025 314   San Diego W 81-54 94%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +15.3 +8.0 +8.8
  Jan 09, 2025 60   @ Santa Clara L 81-82 OT 29%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +11.3 +7.0 +4.4
  Jan 11, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 91-55 83%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +32.1 +22.8 +11.9
  Jan 16, 2025 11   Gonzaga W 97-89 OT 19%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +23.8 +20.9 +2.3
  Jan 18, 2025 69   @ San Francisco L 70-81 34%     13 - 6 4 - 3 -0.3 +8.5 -9.5
  Jan 23, 2025 226   Pepperdine W 83-63 88%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +13.9 +19.8 -2.7
  Jan 25, 2025 60   Santa Clara W 83-69 47%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +21.2 +17.8 +4.2
  Jan 28, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga L 60-98 9%     15 - 7 6 - 4 -17.1 -0.4 -19.7
  Feb 06, 2025 107   Washington St. W 82-74 70%     16 - 7 7 - 4 +9.0 +16.6 -6.7
  Feb 08, 2025 30   St. Mary's L 49-63 29%     16 - 8 7 - 5 -1.9 -5.2 +0.1
  Feb 13, 2025 284   @ Portland L 72-84 84%     16 - 9 7 - 6 -16.4 -0.7 -16.4
  Feb 15, 2025 277   Pacific W 79-65 92%     17 - 9 8 - 6 +5.0 +8.3 -2.1
  Feb 20, 2025 226   @ Pepperdine W 84-78 76%     18 - 9 9 - 6 +5.0 +16.9 -11.4
  Feb 22, 2025 314   @ San Diego W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 26, 2025 69   San Francisco W 71-70 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 30   @ St. Mary's L 60-71 14%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 4.7 4.7 3rd
4th 1.4 15.4 2.4 19.2 4th
5th 4.6 39.1 32.2 0.2 76.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.6 40.5 47.6 7.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 7.4% 5.3% 3.1% 2.2% 10.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 7.0 2.2%
11-7 47.6% 2.0% 1.6% 0.3% 11.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 46.7 0.3%
10-8 40.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 40.1 0.0%
9-9 4.6% 0.7% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 4.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.4% 0.3% 11.2 0.1 1.2 0.4 98.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.8 17.4 82.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 10.0% 11.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.3% 2.5% 11.1 2.2 0.3
Lose Out 1.1%