West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 Gonzaga 92.2%   7   14 - 6 5 - 2 23 - 8 14 - 4 +16.7      +12.1 5 +4.6 58 74.3 50 +11.2 51 +7.4 4
35 St. Mary's 69.4%   9   15 - 3 6 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 4 +12.6      +6.0 46 +6.6 29 59.4 357 +11.5 47 +11.7 1
67 Santa Clara 17.4%   13 - 7 5 - 2 20 - 11 12 - 6 +8.4      +5.6 51 +2.8 95 71.8 91 +7.9 72 +11.3 2
70 Oregon St. 8.2%   13 - 6 4 - 3 20 - 10 11 - 7 +7.9      +5.4 53 +2.4 105 63.6 307 +6.7 84 +5.1 6
75 San Francisco 7.7%   15 - 5 6 - 2 20 - 10 11 - 7 +7.4      +4.0 78 +3.4 84 67.7 210 +9.0 64 +9.6 3
85 Washington St. 7.1%   15 - 5 5 - 2 21 - 10 11 - 7 +6.7      +3.2 97 +3.6 80 75.2 35 +9.4 61 +4.7 7
152 Loyola Marymount 0.2%   10 - 8 3 - 4 16 - 13 9 - 9 +0.8      -1.3 209 +2.1 110 66.9 229 +4.6 100 +6.0 5
203 Pepperdine 0.0%   6 - 12 1 - 5 11 - 19 6 - 12 -2.1      -1.5 217 -0.6 195 71.0 110 -5.2 253 -2.9 8
290 San Diego 0.0%   3 - 15 1 - 6 6 - 24 4 - 14 -7.5      -6.3 331 -1.2 214 74.5 47 -12.4 334 -7.5 10
302 Pacific 0.0%   4 - 15 1 - 6 6 - 24 3 - 15 -7.9      -2.8 243 -5.1 326 68.5 186 -9.9 316 -9.7 11
308 Portland 0.0%   4 - 14 1 - 6 7 - 22 4 - 14 -8.3      -3.0 253 -5.2 328 69.6 155 -8.5 304 -6.3 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Gonzaga 1.7 54.9 31.0 9.0 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 2.0 49.9 26.3 11.6 6.2 3.5 2.2 0.5
Santa Clara 3.3 11.0 20.5 29.6 18.6 12.0 6.3 2.1 0.1
Oregon St. 4.3 3.1 9.4 19.7 21.7 21.5 16.8 6.9 0.8 0.0
San Francisco 3.9 5.9 12.9 21.7 24.5 19.7 11.0 4.4 0.1
Washington St. 4.5 3.6 9.2 16.3 18.4 21.7 21.2 8.7 0.9 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6.3 0.0 0.6 2.5 6.1 12.0 22.5 45.1 10.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 5.1 15.6 57.4 13.8 4.5 1.7
San Diego 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 16.5 36.1 26.5 19.1
Pacific 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.8 29.2 34.6 27.8
Portland 9.6 0.1 1.5 13.8 32.4 27.7 24.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 8.2 18.4 29.4 28.0 12.8
St. Mary's 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.6 11.6 18.7 23.1 19.9 12.5 4.6 1.0
Santa Clara 12 - 6 0.1 0.6 3.1 9.4 20.5 27.1 22.4 12.1 4.2 0.5
Oregon St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 11.3 19.5 26.6 22.2 11.7 3.5 0.3
San Francisco 11 - 7 0.2 1.5 6.4 17.7 26.7 25.1 15.2 5.8 1.3 0.2
Washington St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.4 13.5 22.4 24.2 18.4 9.9 3.7 0.9 0.2
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.1 13.0 20.7 25.4 20.7 10.1 3.1 0.5 0.0
Pepperdine 6 - 12 0.1 0.9 3.7 10.3 19.1 23.3 21.0 13.1 6.4 1.8 0.3 0.1
San Diego 4 - 14 4.2 14.5 25.5 26.3 16.9 9.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Pacific 3 - 15 6.7 22.4 31.6 23.6 11.4 3.5 0.7 0.1
Portland 4 - 14 6.0 18.5 26.4 24.1 15.7 6.7 2.0 0.5 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 54.9% 35.4 16.0 2.9 0.6 0.1
St. Mary's 49.9% 33.2 13.6 2.5 0.5 0.1
Santa Clara 11.0% 4.1 4.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
Oregon St. 3.1% 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.1
San Francisco 5.9% 1.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Washington St. 3.6% 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine
San Diego
Pacific
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 92.2% 53.2% 39.0% 7   1.6 3.0 3.8 6.1 8.6 13.9 14.6 15.1 12.4 9.6 3.6 0.0 7.8 83.3%
St. Mary's 69.4% 25.0% 44.5% 9   0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.3 7.9 11.4 14.1 15.7 9.3 0.3 30.6 59.3%
Santa Clara 17.4% 7.1% 10.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 5.1 8.0 0.5 82.6 11.1%
Oregon St. 8.2% 5.6% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 5.0 1.2 0.0 91.8 2.7%
San Francisco 7.7% 5.4% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 4.9 1.1 0.0 92.3 2.5%
Washington St. 7.1% 3.5% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 4.3 0.6 0.0 92.9 3.8%
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 92.2% 3.2% 91.0% 64.7% 29.3% 14.2% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9%
St. Mary's 69.4% 8.8% 65.3% 34.1% 10.0% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Santa Clara 17.4% 5.8% 14.3% 5.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 8.2% 2.0% 7.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 7.7% 1.8% 6.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 7.1% 2.6% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 19.0 60.9 18.9 1.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 24.5 61.3 13.8 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 82.5% 1.1 17.5 56.8 24.5 1.2
Sweet Sixteen 38.4% 0.4 61.6 35.5 2.8 0.0
Elite Eight 17.9% 0.2 82.1 17.5 0.4
Final Four 7.0% 0.1 93.0 6.9 0.1
Final Game 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Champion 1.1% 0.0 99.0 1.1