Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Gonzaga 86.4%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 5 15 - 3 +16.9      +11.4 2 +5.4 33 71.3 94 0.0 1 0.0 1
35 St. Mary's 46.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +11.1      +4.5 63 +6.6 16 58.9 359 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 San Francisco 18.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +7.2      +3.5 87 +3.8 76 67.7 202 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 Washington St. 14.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +6.4      +2.5 107 +3.9 70 63.2 321 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Santa Clara 14.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +5.7      +3.9 78 +1.9 116 72.0 81 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 Oregon St. 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +2.6      +1.1 141 +1.5 128 63.6 316 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 Loyola Marymount 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +1.2      +2.3 110 -1.2 208 63.2 322 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Pepperdine 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -2.9      -1.2 211 -1.7 233 68.3 180 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 Portland 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 5 - 13 -5.4      -1.0 206 -4.4 323 68.7 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 San Diego 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 5 - 13 -5.8      -3.6 286 -2.3 251 76.0 32 0.0 1 0.0 1
314 Pacific 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 4 - 14 -8.2      -3.3 278 -4.9 332 70.3 122 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Gonzaga 1.5 68.4 18.5 7.3 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.8 22.9 30.5 18.4 11.8 7.5 4.4 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 4.1 8.9 17.2 19.5 16.8 13.6 10.0 6.9 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.2
Washington St. 4.2 7.5 15.6 18.5 18.0 14.8 10.8 7.1 4.4 2.2 0.9 0.3
Santa Clara 4.6 5.8 12.7 16.7 16.6 15.1 12.5 9.6 6.0 3.2 1.4 0.4
Oregon St. 5.6 2.4 6.8 11.1 14.2 15.4 15.4 13.4 10.1 6.3 3.5 1.4
Loyola Marymount 6.0 1.5 5.0 8.5 11.7 14.6 15.8 15.0 12.2 8.4 5.0 2.2
Pepperdine 7.7 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.1 7.8 11.3 14.5 17.9 17.3 13.3 8.7
Portland 8.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.3 7.2 10.8 15.7 19.8 20.9 17.3
San Diego 8.6 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.6 7.0 10.6 15.2 19.3 20.5 18.5
Pacific 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 7.0 11.4 16.5 24.7 32.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.5 7.1 11.4 16.6 20.8 21.1 14.0
St. Mary's 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.5 7.0 9.7 12.4 14.5 15.2 13.8 10.2 5.5 1.6
San Francisco 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.9 7.2 9.8 12.1 13.4 13.5 12.3 9.3 6.4 3.7 1.3 0.3
Washington St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.2 7.7 10.7 12.7 13.9 13.4 11.7 8.7 5.4 2.9 1.0 0.2
Santa Clara 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.8 7.0 9.5 11.6 13.1 13.1 12.1 10.0 6.9 4.3 2.0 0.8 0.1
Oregon St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.5 7.9 10.4 12.4 13.2 12.6 11.1 8.7 6.1 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.1 9.9 11.7 13.1 12.8 11.8 9.5 6.8 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 6 - 12 0.6 2.2 4.7 8.0 11.1 13.6 13.8 12.8 11.0 8.6 6.0 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 1.8 5.2 9.2 12.9 15.1 14.6 12.8 10.3 7.5 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 5 - 13 1.8 5.8 9.9 13.1 14.3 14.1 12.4 10.1 7.2 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pacific 4 - 14 4.7 11.1 15.2 16.6 15.3 12.4 9.4 6.5 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 68.4% 55.8 11.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
St. Mary's 22.9% 14.4 7.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 8.9% 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 7.5% 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 5.8% 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 86.4% 54.4% 32.0% 3   12.3 12.6 10.3 9.8 7.7 6.4 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.4 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.6 70.3%
St. Mary's 46.0% 19.8% 26.2% 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.7 6.5 8.4 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 54.0 32.6%
San Francisco 18.3% 8.4% 9.9% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.7 10.8%
Washington St. 14.4% 6.8% 7.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.3 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.6 8.1%
Santa Clara 14.7% 6.1% 8.6% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.5 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.3 9.2%
Oregon St. 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.0 1.6%
Loyola Marymount 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.8 0.7%
Pepperdine 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
San Diego 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 86.4% 2.7% 85.3% 67.8% 42.8% 25.2% 14.3% 7.7% 4.2%
St. Mary's 46.0% 5.8% 43.4% 26.7% 12.0% 5.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4%
San Francisco 18.3% 3.1% 16.8% 8.5% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Washington St. 14.4% 2.7% 13.1% 6.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 14.7% 3.0% 13.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon St. 4.0% 0.7% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.2% 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 32.0 50.9 15.5 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 36.6 50.0 12.5 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 85.1% 1.2 14.9 55.6 26.6 2.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 55.4% 0.6 44.6 48.2 7.0 0.2
Elite Eight 31.9% 0.3 68.1 30.4 1.5 0.0
Final Four 17.4% 0.2 82.6 17.1 0.3 0.0
Final Game 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.0 0.1
Champion 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7