Portland
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#284
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#244
Pace70.3#125
Improvement+7.0#3

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#209
First Shot+3.1#93
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#356
Layup/Dunks-1.6#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#72
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement+8.3#1

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#331
First Shot-6.0#343
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#158
Layups/Dunks-0.1#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#358
Freethrows+3.7#6
Improvement-1.3#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 7
Quad 21 - 31 - 10
Quad 31 - 72 - 16
Quad 48 - 510 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 145   UC Santa Barbara L 53-94 30%     0 - 1 -42.6 -23.5 -17.9
  Nov 12, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 70-80 OT 3%     0 - 2 +4.7 -5.3 +11.3
  Nov 16, 2024 304   @ Long Beach St. W 63-61 46%     1 - 2 -3.8 -4.7 +1.2
  Nov 21, 2024 176   South Florida L 68-74 28%     1 - 3 -6.9 -4.8 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 172   Ohio L 73-85 27%     1 - 4 -12.5 -9.5 -1.6
  Nov 24, 2024 162   Princeton L 67-94 26%     1 - 5 -27.1 -9.5 -16.0
  Dec 01, 2024 315   Denver W 101-90 2OT 68%     2 - 5 -0.7 +1.3 -4.4
  Dec 06, 2024 137   @ Kent St. L 57-76 16%     2 - 6 -15.2 -8.0 -8.8
  Dec 10, 2024 245   UMKC L 64-69 51%     2 - 7 -12.3 -7.0 -5.6
  Dec 18, 2024 240   Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-81 50%     2 - 8 -23.9 -6.3 -19.7
  Dec 21, 2024 298   Lafayette W 74-64 63%     3 - 8 -0.2 -2.3 +1.9
  Dec 28, 2024 107   Washington St. L 73-89 22%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -15.0 -3.7 -10.5
  Dec 30, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. L 79-89 8%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -1.1 +15.2 -17.2
  Jan 02, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga L 50-81 1%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -10.1 -14.5 +4.1
  Jan 04, 2025 30   St. Mary's L 58-81 5%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -10.9 -4.6 -7.4
  Jan 09, 2025 69   @ San Francisco L 72-81 6%     3 - 13 0 - 5 +1.7 +10.4 -9.3
  Jan 16, 2025 277   Pacific W 84-81 OT 58%     4 - 13 1 - 5 -6.0 +4.8 -10.9
  Jan 18, 2025 107   @ Washington St. L 70-92 12%     4 - 14 1 - 6 -15.9 -4.3 -10.5
  Jan 23, 2025 314   San Diego W 92-82 68%     5 - 14 2 - 6 -1.7 +12.4 -14.3
  Jan 25, 2025 11   Gonzaga L 62-105 3%     5 - 15 2 - 7 -27.2 -4.8 -22.9
  Jan 30, 2025 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-88 19%     5 - 16 2 - 8 -22.8 -6.1 -16.8
  Feb 01, 2025 226   @ Pepperdine W 84-64 28%     6 - 16 3 - 8 +19.0 +13.7 +6.1
  Feb 06, 2025 60   Santa Clara L 50-97 10%     6 - 17 3 - 9 -39.8 -20.6 -18.8
  Feb 13, 2025 87   Oregon St. W 84-72 16%     7 - 17 4 - 9 +15.9 +15.4 +1.2
  Feb 15, 2025 169   Loyola Marymount W 89-78 35%     8 - 17 5 - 9 +8.1 +16.0 -8.1
  Feb 19, 2025 30   @ St. Mary's L 66-79 2%     8 - 18 5 - 10 +4.2 +6.7 -3.2
  Feb 22, 2025 277   @ Pacific L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 27, 2025 226   Pepperdine L 78-79 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 314   @ San Diego L 78-79 47%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 2.0 6.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.6 12.0 2.7 15.3 7th
8th 7.7 36.5 19.1 0.3 63.6 8th
9th 9.3 2.6 11.9 9th
10th 1.2 1.2 10th
11th 11th
Total 18.2 39.8 33.1 8.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 8.9% 8.9
7-11 33.1% 33.1
6-12 39.8% 39.8
5-13 18.2% 18.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 12.4%