South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#121
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#246
Pace69.3#176
Improvement-0.1#182

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#159
First Shot+0.5#157
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#167
Layup/Dunks-0.8#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#212
Freethrows+2.9#54
Improvement-0.5#267

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#105
First Shot+0.7#157
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#94
Layups/Dunks-4.3#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#16
Freethrows-4.0#343
Improvement+0.5#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.5% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.4
.500 or above 56.3% 61.2% 34.7%
.500 or above in Conference 48.3% 51.1% 35.8%
Conference Champion 3.5% 3.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 5.5% 10.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round4.0% 4.4% 2.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Neutral) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 53 - 9
Quad 35 - 48 - 14
Quad 48 - 115 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 21   Florida L 83-98 15%     0 - 1 -1.0 +7.0 -6.7
  Nov 08, 2024 116   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 37%     0 - 2 -8.7 -9.5 +2.8
  Nov 12, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 97%     1 - 2 -3.2 +0.2 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 353   West Georgia W 74-55 95%     2 - 2 +2.8 -2.0 +6.1
  Nov 21, 2024 289   Portland W 76-66 82%    
  Dec 03, 2024 326   Stetson W 79-64 92%    
  Dec 07, 2024 105   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-73 34%    
  Dec 14, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 72-82 18%    
  Dec 18, 2024 286   Bethune-Cookman W 77-65 87%    
  Dec 21, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-60 96%    
  Dec 31, 2024 145   East Carolina W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 06, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 146   @ Tulane L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 15, 2025 103   UAB W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 147   Tulsa W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 142   @ Charlotte L 65-66 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 145   @ East Carolina L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 28, 2025 171   Rice W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 02, 2025 75   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 113   Temple W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 09, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 33   Memphis L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 16, 2025 103   @ UAB L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 19, 2025 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 23, 2025 83   North Texas L 62-63 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 113   @ Temple L 69-73 37%    
  Mar 02, 2025 75   Florida Atlantic L 76-78 44%    
  Mar 07, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 70-82 15%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 3.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.6 3.3 0.3 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 2.2 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.4 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.0 7.6 10.0 11.7 12.8 12.3 11.5 8.9 6.9 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 92.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 73.7% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 43.3% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.3% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 73.8% 35.4% 38.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.5%
16-2 0.5% 44.0% 26.6% 17.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 23.7%
15-3 1.2% 32.0% 26.1% 5.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 8.0%
14-4 2.5% 18.9% 17.8% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.0 1.3%
13-5 4.3% 14.5% 14.4% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.7 0.1%
12-6 6.9% 11.0% 10.9% 0.1% 12.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.1 0.1%
11-7 8.9% 5.8% 5.8% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.4
10-8 11.5% 3.7% 3.7% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.1
9-9 12.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.1
8-10 12.8% 1.0% 1.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.7
7-11 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.6
4-14 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-15 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.1% 3.8% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 95.9 0.3%