South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#180
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#236
Pace69.3#168
Improvement-1.9#301

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#174
First Shot+2.3#106
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#304
Layup/Dunks+1.3#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#212
Freethrows+3.5#30
Improvement-0.2#193

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#160
Layups/Dunks-2.8#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#51
Freethrows-2.4#324
Improvement-1.7#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.4
.500 or above 23.0% 24.4% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 28.0% 17.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.1% 14.5% 21.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 35 - 76 - 16
Quad 48 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 7   Florida L 83-98 5%     0 - 1 +3.1 +9.7 -5.2
  Nov 08, 2024 121   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 26%     0 - 2 -9.5 -8.8 +1.4
  Nov 12, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 95%     1 - 2 -4.3 -1.3 -3.0
  Nov 15, 2024 341   West Georgia W 74-55 89%     2 - 2 +4.6 -0.3 +6.3
  Nov 21, 2024 325   Portland W 74-68 79%     3 - 2 -3.3 -4.0 +0.6
  Nov 22, 2024 131   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 39%     3 - 3 -5.3 +16.2 -21.4
  Nov 24, 2024 154   Wright St. W 73-72 46%     4 - 3 +1.1 -1.5 +2.6
  Dec 03, 2024 344   Stetson W 74-72 90%     5 - 3 -12.8 -8.3 -4.5
  Dec 07, 2024 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-74 22%     5 - 4 +5.3 +4.2 +1.0
  Dec 14, 2024 54   @ Utah St. L 67-88 10%     5 - 5 -8.1 -0.7 -7.1
  Dec 18, 2024 262   Bethune-Cookman L 69-77 76%     5 - 6 -16.5 -2.6 -14.2
  Dec 21, 2024 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 31, 2024 159   East Carolina W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 06, 2025 110   @ Wichita St. L 71-79 24%    
  Jan 11, 2025 203   @ Tulane L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 15, 2025 129   UAB W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 252   Tulsa W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 193   @ Charlotte L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 28, 2025 196   Rice W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 02, 2025 85   @ Florida Atlantic L 75-86 17%    
  Feb 06, 2025 119   Temple L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 09, 2025 110   Wichita St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 37   Memphis L 73-83 18%    
  Feb 16, 2025 129   @ UAB L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 230   @ Texas San Antonio L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 23, 2025 80   North Texas L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 119   @ Temple L 69-76 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 85   Florida Atlantic L 78-83 34%    
  Mar 07, 2025 37   @ Memphis L 70-86 7%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 4.5 1.7 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.5 4.5 4.6 0.8 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.4 1.7 0.1 11.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.6 6.1 2.9 0.2 12.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 12.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.3 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.1 9.1 12.4 14.5 15.3 13.3 10.7 7.6 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 68.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 39.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 7.5% 7.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.1% 5.5% 5.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.5% 5.9% 5.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3
11-7 4.7% 3.2% 3.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5
10-8 7.6% 2.2% 2.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
9-9 10.7% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.5
8-10 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 13.2
7-11 15.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 15.2
6-12 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-13 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-14 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%