Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#230
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#191
Pace75.0#44
Improvement+2.7#37

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot+0.6#161
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#240
Layup/Dunks-5.6#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#129
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement+1.3#81

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#282
First Shot-1.1#205
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#330
Layups/Dunks-1.3#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows-1.1#259
Improvement+1.5#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 12.0% 17.5% 5.7%
.500 or above in Conference 17.8% 21.5% 13.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 25.2% 21.6% 29.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 53.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 15
Quad 47 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 79   @ Bradley L 72-85 11%     0 - 1 -2.9 -2.5 +0.5
  Nov 16, 2024 243   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-81 65%     0 - 2 -24.7 -11.1 -13.0
  Nov 25, 2024 125   @ Troy L 72-86 20%     0 - 3 -8.7 +1.7 -10.2
  Nov 27, 2024 198   Merrimack W 76-74 42%     1 - 3 +0.4 -0.7 +1.0
  Nov 30, 2024 349   Houston Christian W 78-71 86%     2 - 3 -8.2 +1.7 -9.4
  Dec 03, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 74-82 OT 6%     2 - 4 +5.8 +3.6 +2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 60-75 5%     2 - 5 +0.8 -2.1 +2.3
  Dec 13, 2024 278   North Dakota W 80-76 71%     3 - 5 -5.4 -3.7 -1.9
  Dec 15, 2024 278   @ North Dakota W 95-85 49%     4 - 5 +6.6 +11.7 -5.7
  Dec 29, 2024 299   @ Army W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 203   @ Tulane L 75-80 33%    
  Jan 07, 2025 252   Tulsa W 79-75 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 110   Wichita St. L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 14, 2025 196   @ Rice L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 80   North Texas L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 21, 2025 129   @ UAB L 79-87 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 119   Temple L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 29, 2025 85   @ Florida Atlantic L 78-91 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 80   @ North Texas L 61-75 11%    
  Feb 05, 2025 203   Tulane W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 159   East Carolina L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 110   @ Wichita St. L 74-84 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 252   @ Tulsa L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 180   South Florida W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 70-76 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 196   Rice W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 37   Memphis L 76-89 13%    
  Mar 09, 2025 193   @ Charlotte L 71-76 32%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.1 4.1 0.5 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.3 5.6 1.2 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.2 2.7 6.2 2.6 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.5 4.1 0.5 0.0 13.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.9 4.6 0.8 0.0 14.7 12th
13th 0.4 1.7 4.2 5.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 15.9 13th
Total 0.4 1.8 4.7 8.5 12.0 14.9 14.9 13.9 11.2 7.8 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 75.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 68.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 43.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 9.3% 9.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.6% 3.5% 3.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.4% 3.5% 3.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-7 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-8 4.9% 1.2% 1.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
9-9 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 7.8
8-10 11.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-11 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
5-13 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
4-14 12.0% 12.0
3-15 8.5% 8.5
2-16 4.7% 4.7
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%