Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#208
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#228
Pace74.3#45
Improvement+1.8#110

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#177
First Shot+0.0#173
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks-5.6#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#127
Freethrows+1.5#91
Improvement-0.5#203

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#238
First Shot-0.7#202
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#308
Layups/Dunks-0.9#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#177
Freethrows-0.9#255
Improvement+2.3#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.2% 8.2% 29.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 55 - 13
Quad 45 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 94   @ Bradley L 72-85 17%     0 - 1 -5.3 -2.7 -1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-81 65%     0 - 2 -23.5 -10.0 -13.0
  Nov 25, 2024 118   @ Troy L 72-86 23%     0 - 3 -8.7 +2.4 -11.0
  Nov 27, 2024 214   Merrimack W 76-74 50%     1 - 3 -0.7 +1.1 -1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 295   Houston Christian W 78-71 76%     2 - 3 -3.0 +4.9 -7.4
  Dec 03, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's L 74-82 OT 4%     2 - 4 +9.2 +6.6 +3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 35   @ Arkansas L 60-75 6%     2 - 5 +0.3 -0.4 +0.1
  Dec 13, 2024 278   North Dakota W 80-76 73%     3 - 5 -5.0 -4.8 -0.4
  Dec 15, 2024 278   @ North Dakota W 95-85 55%     4 - 5 +6.1 +10.1 -4.6
  Dec 29, 2024 287   @ Army L 75-78 57%     4 - 6 -7.4 -7.3 +0.2
  Jan 04, 2025 144   @ Tulane L 63-92 28%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -25.4 -11.8 -12.0
  Jan 07, 2025 246   Tulsa L 77-82 68%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -12.3 +3.4 -15.9
  Jan 11, 2025 115   Wichita St. W 88-75 39%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +13.3 +17.1 -3.7
  Jan 14, 2025 178   @ Rice W 90-84 34%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +7.6 +15.1 -7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 71   North Texas L 57-72 23%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -9.6 -0.5 -11.8
  Jan 21, 2025 104   @ UAB L 78-81 19%     6 - 10 2 - 4 +3.7 +6.1 -2.6
  Jan 25, 2025 155   Temple W 88-79 48%     7 - 10 3 - 4 +7.0 +7.3 -0.8
  Jan 29, 2025 105   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-94 19%     7 - 11 3 - 5 -13.4 +7.0 -21.7
  Feb 01, 2025 71   @ North Texas W 54-50 12%     8 - 11 4 - 5 +14.5 -1.6 +16.8
  Feb 05, 2025 144   Tulane L 60-61 46%     8 - 12 4 - 6 -2.5 -8.9 +6.3
  Feb 08, 2025 150   East Carolina L 79-80 47%     8 - 13 4 - 7 -2.9 +8.4 -11.3
  Feb 12, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. L 64-69 23%     8 - 14 4 - 8 +0.4 -7.0 +7.5
  Feb 15, 2025 246   @ Tulsa L 76-80 49%     8 - 15 4 - 9 -6.2 +0.5 -6.5
  Feb 19, 2025 176   South Florida L 73-78 54%     8 - 16 4 - 10 -8.5 -5.4 -2.7
  Feb 23, 2025 150   @ East Carolina L 73-79 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 178   Rice W 77-76 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 47   Memphis L 74-85 17%    
  Mar 09, 2025 235   @ Charlotte L 74-75 45%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.4 0.5 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 2.7 0.6 3.4 8th
9th 6.7 6.8 0.2 13.7 9th
10th 5.8 18.3 2.0 26.1 10th
11th 1.0 24.9 7.3 0.1 33.3 11th
12th 8.3 7.7 0.1 16.1 12th
13th 6.3 0.2 6.5 13th
Total 15.7 38.6 32.3 12.0 1.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.5% 1.5
7-11 12.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-12 32.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 32.2
5-13 38.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 38.5
4-14 15.7% 15.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.5%