Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#277
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#287
Pace73.1#92
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#299
First Shot-7.0#349
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#51
Layup/Dunks-2.7#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#264
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement-1.5#298

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#208
First Shot+3.5#68
After Offensive Rebounds-4.8#358
Layups/Dunks+3.4#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#265
Freethrows-1.7#277
Improvement+1.7#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 n/a 15.0
.500 or above 1.5% 8.5% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 10.6% 21.7% 10.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 35.9% 20.2% 36.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 83 - 16
Quad 45 - 68 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 230 SIU Edwardsville L 60-77 54%     0 - 1 -24.0 -16.3 -7.0
  Wed, Nov 12 237 @Texas St. L 69-80 32%     0 - 2 -12.3 -2.9 -9.3
  Sat, Nov 15 294 @Denver W 84-79 43%     1 - 2 +0.6 +10.0 -9.0
  Mon, Nov 24 215 Abilene Christian L 50-61 40%     1 - 3 -14.5 -15.8 -0.2
  Tue, Nov 25 232 Georgia Southern W 77-64 42%     2 - 3 +8.9 -2.0 +10.3
  Sun, Nov 30 166 South Alabama L 58-82 41%     2 - 4 -27.8 -17.8 -9.7
  Sun, Dec 7 10 @Alabama L 71-99 0.4%   
  Sat, Dec 13 63 @Colorado L 69-87 5%    
  Wed, Dec 17 35 @USC L 67-89 2%    
  Mon, Dec 22 113 Seattle L 67-74 27%    
  Wed, Dec 31 122 @Florida Atlantic L 69-81 14%    
  Sat, Jan 3 160 @Temple L 72-81 21%    
  Wed, Jan 7 181 Charlotte L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 187 Tulane L 75-76 45%    
  Wed, Jan 14 213 Rice W 72-71 51%    
  Sun, Jan 18 69 @Memphis L 66-83 6%    
  Wed, Jan 21 144 @North Texas L 62-72 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 160 Temple L 75-78 40%    
  Wed, Jan 28 110 UAB L 72-79 27%    
  Wed, Feb 4 79 @South Florida L 70-86 7%    
  Sat, Feb 7 144 North Texas L 65-69 36%    
  Wed, Feb 11 266 @East Carolina L 73-76 38%    
  Sun, Feb 15 181 @Charlotte L 66-74 25%    
  Wed, Feb 18 122 Florida Atlantic L 72-78 31%    
  Sun, Feb 22 89 @Tulsa L 67-82 9%    
  Wed, Feb 25 266 East Carolina W 76-73 59%    
  Sun, Mar 1 91 Wichita St. L 68-77 22%    
  Sun, Mar 8 213 @Rice L 69-75 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.7 1.4 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.8 2.6 0.2 11.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.8 4.0 0.4 0.0 15.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.6 7.7 4.7 0.9 0.0 19.2 12th
13th 1.3 4.1 7.4 7.2 3.7 0.7 0.0 24.5 13th
Total 1.3 4.2 8.7 12.3 15.0 15.2 13.8 11.1 7.9 5.2 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 13.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 3.5% 3.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 2.9% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
9-9 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.2
8-10 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.9
7-11 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
5-13 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
4-14 15.0% 15.0
3-15 12.3% 12.3
2-16 8.7% 8.7
1-17 4.2% 4.2
0-18 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%