Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#35
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#48
Pace70.7#114
Improvement+2.0#104

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#77
First Shot+4.5#66
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#214
Layup/Dunks+4.7#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#200
Freethrows+0.0#169
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#16
First Shot+5.4#37
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#6
Layups/Dunks-0.4#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#165
Freethrows+2.9#25
Improvement+2.2#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 3.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.4% 64.4% 34.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.2% 64.3% 34.4%
Average Seed 9.7 9.2 10.2
.500 or above 97.5% 100.0% 95.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 12.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four15.9% 15.1% 16.5%
First Round40.1% 57.9% 26.7%
Second Round19.1% 29.1% 11.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 7.6% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.5% 1.5%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 11
Quad 23 - 38 - 14
Quad 33 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 101   Lipscomb W 76-60 85%     1 - 0 +17.9 -0.2 +17.1
  Nov 09, 2024 24   Baylor L 67-72 40%     1 - 1 +10.4 +4.5 +5.5
  Nov 13, 2024 118   Troy W 65-49 88%     2 - 1 +16.2 -4.7 +21.2
  Nov 18, 2024 277   Pacific W 91-72 97%     3 - 1 +10.0 +6.9 +1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-67 95%     4 - 1 +5.5 +0.3 +4.2
  Nov 25, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 109-35 99%     5 - 1 +53.0 +18.5 +28.8
  Nov 28, 2024 18   Illinois L 77-90 37%     5 - 2 +3.2 +8.5 -5.0
  Dec 03, 2024 152   @ Miami (FL) W 76-73 82%     6 - 2 +6.1 +2.8 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 208   Texas San Antonio W 75-60 94%     7 - 2 +9.9 +1.7 +8.9
  Dec 10, 2024 22   Michigan W 89-87 39%     8 - 2 +17.6 +15.1 +2.4
  Dec 14, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 82-57 99%     9 - 2 +10.2 +8.6 +3.6
  Dec 21, 2024 316   N.C. A&T W 95-67 98%     10 - 2 +16.3 +11.7 +2.8
  Dec 30, 2024 198   Oakland W 92-62 94%     11 - 2 +25.4 +14.5 +10.4
  Jan 04, 2025 5   @ Tennessee L 52-76 18%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -1.5 -2.9 -0.4
  Jan 08, 2025 25   Mississippi L 66-73 52%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +5.3 +4.6 +0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 4   Florida L 63-71 25%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +11.7 -0.2 +11.7
  Jan 14, 2025 72   @ LSU L 74-78 59%     11 - 6 0 - 4 +6.4 +6.6 -0.1
  Jan 18, 2025 15   @ Missouri L 65-83 24%     11 - 7 0 - 5 +2.2 -0.8 +3.0
  Jan 22, 2025 44   Georgia W 68-65 64%     12 - 7 1 - 5 +12.1 +5.6 +6.6
  Jan 25, 2025 50   Oklahoma L 62-65 67%     12 - 8 1 - 6 +5.3 -2.4 +7.5
  Feb 01, 2025 17   @ Kentucky W 89-79 26%     13 - 8 2 - 6 +29.5 +18.4 +10.8
  Feb 05, 2025 36   @ Texas W 78-70 40%     14 - 8 3 - 6 +23.3 +8.0 +14.9
  Feb 08, 2025 6   Alabama L 81-85 34%     14 - 9 3 - 7 +12.9 +9.0 +4.2
  Feb 12, 2025 72   LSU W 70-58 76%     15 - 9 4 - 7 +17.3 +6.8 +11.5
  Feb 15, 2025 20   @ Texas A&M L 61-69 29%     15 - 10 4 - 8 +10.5 +3.8 +6.2
  Feb 19, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 60-67 11%     15 - 11 4 - 9 +19.1 -1.1 +20.1
  Feb 22, 2025 15   Missouri L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 36   Texas W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 84   @ South Carolina W 69-66 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 53   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 72-71 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.6 7th
8th 0.7 1.7 2.4 8th
9th 0.2 4.8 2.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.4 10.7 11.4 0.7 23.2 10th
11th 0.1 7.0 16.5 1.7 25.4 11th
12th 0.1 4.1 15.5 4.9 0.0 24.6 12th
13th 1.1 6.7 4.4 0.1 12.3 13th
14th 1.2 2.4 0.2 3.9 14th
15th 0.4 0.1 0.5 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.8 13.4 27.6 32.4 18.6 5.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 5.1% 98.4% 0.4% 98.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
8-10 18.6% 88.0% 0.5% 87.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.1 5.5 4.9 1.4 2.2 88.0%
7-11 32.4% 58.6% 0.3% 58.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 5.6 9.4 0.6 13.4 58.4%
6-12 27.6% 23.3% 0.2% 23.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.5 1.0 21.2 23.2%
5-13 13.4% 3.7% 0.1% 3.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.9 3.6%
4-14 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 2.8 0.4%
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 47.4% 0.3% 47.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.8 11.4 15.6 1.6 0.0 52.6 47.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 5.6 15.6 21.9 46.9 15.6
Lose Out 2.0%