Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Auburn 98.7%   1   4 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 6 13 - 5 +19.6      +11.7 2 +7.9 10 73.1 80 +25.1 1 0.0 1
8 Tennessee 95.7%   2   4 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 7 12 - 6 +17.4      +8.0 18 +9.5 5 71.7 105 +18.7 7 0.0 1
9 Alabama 89.2%   3   3 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +17.1      +11.5 3 +5.6 42 78.8 20 +12.1 37 0.0 1
10 Kentucky 95.9%   2   4 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +16.9      +10.6 6 +6.4 28 78.9 17 +24.7 2 0.0 1
21 Florida 82.6%   4   5 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +14.0      +9.8 9 +4.2 66 77.2 30 +16.4 14 0.0 1
23 Texas A&M 74.5%   6   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +13.7      +7.4 26 +6.3 30 65.7 282 +11.2 43 0.0 1
27 Arkansas 69.6%   7   3 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +13.4      +5.9 42 +7.4 12 74.7 60 +10.0 51 0.0 1
29 Mississippi St. 73.3%   6   4 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +13.0      +6.5 36 +6.4 27 72.4 94 +15.2 22 0.0 1
31 Texas 58.1%   8   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +12.8      +7.0 31 +5.8 37 68.0 221 +1.0 179 0.0 1
47 Mississippi 42.1%   11   4 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +9.8      +6.0 40 +3.8 73 67.2 248 +12.0 38 0.0 1
48 LSU 43.8%   10   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 7 - 11 +9.7      +5.1 51 +4.6 56 73.0 81 +16.9 12 0.0 1
51 Oklahoma 28.4%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 7 - 11 +9.3      +4.1 66 +5.2 45 68.4 209 +0.3 183 0.0 1
55 Georgia 36.0%   5 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +9.3      +4.8 57 +4.4 61 71.0 123 +12.7 32 0.0 1
61 Missouri 25.8%   3 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +8.7      +6.1 39 +2.7 99 66.8 260 +6.2 89 0.0 1
72 South Carolina 16.9%   2 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 +7.8      +3.6 80 +4.2 67 68.3 213 -1.6 211 0.0 1
82 Vanderbilt 17.1%   4 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 6 - 12 +7.0      +5.5 48 +1.5 127 72.5 90 +8.1 71 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Auburn 3.0 37.7 19.5 12.5 8.5 6.4 4.5 3.3 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Tennessee 4.3 21.1 16.9 13.2 10.8 8.9 7.1 5.6 4.7 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2
Alabama 5.0 15.9 14.1 12.4 11.0 9.5 8.0 6.9 5.7 4.7 3.6 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3
Kentucky 4.7 18.3 15.0 12.6 10.5 9.2 7.7 6.3 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.5 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3
Florida 6.6 6.6 8.5 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.6 8.9 7.7 7.0 6.1 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.3 1.5 0.8
Texas A&M 6.8 7.5 8.4 9.2 9.3 9.0 8.5 8.2 7.5 6.7 5.9 5.4 4.6 3.6 3.0 2.1 1.3
Arkansas 6.9 6.0 8.0 8.9 9.6 9.4 9.0 8.3 7.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 4.6 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.2
Mississippi St. 7.4 5.2 6.9 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.2 7.2 6.8 6.0 5.2 4.5 3.8 2.7 1.8
Texas 7.6 5.4 6.6 7.4 7.9 7.7 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.5 6.9 6.5 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.2 2.0
Mississippi 10.2 1.2 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.4 5.4 6.2 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.9 8.4 6.9
LSU 10.1 1.3 2.2 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.4 6.3 6.8 7.8 8.3 8.4 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.4 6.6
Oklahoma 10.2 1.2 2.2 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.4 5.9 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.1 8.5 7.4
Georgia 10.6 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.9 5.0 5.7 6.8 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 9.1 7.0
Missouri 10.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.0 6.0 6.6 7.6 8.2 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.1 7.8
South Carolina 11.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.7 4.4 5.2 6.3 7.0 7.9 9.2 10.1 11.5 12.9 13.6
Vanderbilt 12.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.4 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.7 9.0 10.9 12.6 15.1 18.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Auburn 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.1 12.1 14.9 15.5 14.1 10.8 6.4 2.0
Tennessee 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.0 7.7 9.9 12.5 14.0 14.0 12.1 9.4 6.0 2.5 0.7
Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.7 9.5 11.6 13.3 13.8 12.9 10.3 7.0 3.8 1.5 0.4
Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.9 6.4 8.5 11.0 12.7 13.6 13.0 10.9 8.2 4.8 2.1 0.6
Florida 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.2 8.1 10.8 12.6 13.8 13.4 11.4 8.7 5.9 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Texas A&M 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.3 10.2 12.4 12.6 12.3 10.7 8.4 5.8 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2
Arkansas 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.4 10.8 12.4 13.2 12.6 10.7 8.2 5.4 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.2 9.4 11.5 12.6 12.9 11.6 9.8 7.1 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.4 5.2 7.9 10.3 11.3 12.4 12.1 11.0 8.8 6.6 4.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Mississippi 7 - 11 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.4 8.2 10.7 12.8 12.9 12.6 10.8 8.4 6.0 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
LSU 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.3 8.1 10.6 12.7 13.0 12.3 10.7 8.7 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.7 8.2 11.1 12.4 12.7 12.3 10.6 8.1 6.0 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.8 8.9 12.1 13.9 14.0 12.7 10.1 7.8 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.2 5.8 8.8 11.6 13.0 13.3 12.3 10.4 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 6 - 12 0.7 2.8 5.8 9.1 11.9 13.2 13.1 12.1 10.3 8.0 5.8 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 6 - 12 1.2 3.8 7.8 11.0 13.7 14.5 13.3 11.4 8.9 6.1 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Auburn 37.7% 25.5 9.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 21.1% 12.7 6.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alabama 15.9% 9.2 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 18.3% 11.0 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida 6.6% 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 7.5% 3.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 6.0% 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi St. 5.2% 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas 5.4% 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Auburn 98.7% 25.1% 73.6% 1   40.1 25.9 14.0 7.8 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 98.3%
Tennessee 95.7% 15.5% 80.1% 2   19.8 19.6 16.0 12.5 8.9 6.4 4.1 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 94.9%
Alabama 89.2% 13.9% 75.3% 3   17.2 17.5 15.1 12.1 8.4 5.5 3.6 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.8 87.5%
Kentucky 95.9% 13.6% 82.3% 2   23.4 20.8 16.6 11.5 8.1 5.4 3.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.1 95.3%
Florida 82.6% 5.8% 76.7% 4   4.6 7.4 10.0 11.0 10.7 9.6 7.8 6.1 5.2 4.6 5.0 0.7 0.0 17.4 81.5%
Texas A&M 74.5% 5.5% 69.0% 6   3.5 5.9 8.0 8.9 9.1 9.1 7.7 6.1 5.4 4.5 5.4 1.1 0.0 25.5 73.0%
Arkansas 69.6% 5.1% 64.5% 7   2.3 3.7 6.0 7.2 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 6.8 5.6 4.9 0.6 0.0 30.4 67.9%
Mississippi St. 73.3% 4.6% 68.8% 6   3.2 5.3 8.1 8.9 9.2 9.0 8.1 6.4 5.5 4.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 26.7 72.1%
Texas 58.1% 4.4% 53.7% 8   1.3 2.2 3.6 4.6 5.9 6.5 8.6 8.8 6.8 5.5 4.0 0.4 41.9 56.2%
Mississippi 42.1% 1.3% 40.8% 11   0.4 0.8 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.4 5.0 5.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 57.9 41.3%
LSU 43.8% 1.2% 42.5% 10   0.3 0.8 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.7 5.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.8 0.8 0.0 56.2 43.1%
Oklahoma 28.4% 1.2% 27.2% 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 3.7 0.3 71.6 27.5%
Georgia 36.0% 0.9% 35.1% 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.9 3.5 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.5 0.8 0.0 64.0 35.4%
Missouri 25.8% 0.9% 24.9% 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.0 3.1 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.2 0.4 74.2 25.1%
South Carolina 16.9% 0.6% 16.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 83.1 16.5%
Vanderbilt 17.1% 0.4% 16.7% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.3 0.5 82.9 16.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Auburn 98.7% 0.8% 98.4% 92.1% 67.1% 43.0% 25.5% 14.5% 8.1%
Tennessee 95.7% 1.7% 94.9% 82.1% 53.4% 30.3% 16.1% 8.2% 4.1%
Alabama 89.2% 3.0% 88.0% 75.8% 49.2% 27.3% 14.3% 7.4% 3.6%
Kentucky 95.9% 1.9% 95.0% 82.4% 52.7% 29.0% 14.7% 7.3% 3.5%
Florida 82.6% 5.1% 80.2% 57.8% 29.1% 12.9% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9%
Texas A&M 74.5% 5.9% 71.8% 50.8% 25.5% 11.6% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9%
Arkansas 69.6% 4.9% 67.2% 46.0% 21.8% 9.7% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7%
Mississippi St. 73.3% 4.6% 71.1% 48.7% 23.7% 10.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7%
Texas 58.1% 3.7% 56.5% 37.2% 16.6% 7.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Mississippi 42.1% 5.6% 39.2% 22.4% 8.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
LSU 43.8% 5.9% 40.7% 22.4% 7.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Oklahoma 28.4% 3.4% 26.7% 15.1% 5.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Georgia 36.0% 5.6% 33.0% 17.5% 5.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Missouri 25.8% 3.9% 23.7% 12.6% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
South Carolina 16.9% 2.7% 15.6% 7.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 17.1% 3.4% 15.3% 7.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.5 0.1 0.5 4.0 16.0 30.2 29.6 15.2 3.8 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.7 20.8 32.5 25.7 10.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.5 3.4 12.8 24.7 29.2 19.7 7.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.8 0.2 2.9 12.1 27.0 30.8 19.1 6.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 93.3% 2.0 6.7 27.6 37.2 21.8 5.9 0.8 0.0
Final Four 70.7% 1.0 29.3 46.8 20.7 3.1 0.1
Final Game 43.5% 0.5 56.5 38.7 4.9
Champion 23.6% 0.2 76.4 23.6