Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Auburn 100.0%   1   24 - 2 12 - 1 28 - 3 16 - 2 +23.6      +14.2 1 +9.4 12 70.7 112 +28.5 1 +28.4 1
4 Florida 100.0%   1   23 - 3 10 - 3 27 - 4 14 - 4 +22.2      +12.7 5 +9.6 10 72.4 69 +23.2 2 +22.1 2
5 Tennessee 100.0%   2   21 - 5 8 - 5 24 - 7 11 - 7 +19.9      +7.2 32 +12.7 2 62.0 338 +20.9 5 +18.2 6
6 Alabama 100.0%   2   21 - 5 10 - 3 24 - 7 13 - 5 +19.5      +13.9 2 +5.6 47 83.7 1 +21.4 4 +21.5 3
15 Missouri 100.0%   3   20 - 6 9 - 4 23 - 8 12 - 6 +17.6      +12.0 7 +5.6 46 69.1 153 +18.2 12 +20.4 4
17 Kentucky 100.0%   4   18 - 8 7 - 6 21 - 10 10 - 8 +16.9      +12.9 4 +4.0 70 75.3 30 +17.0 15 +15.7 9
20 Texas A&M 100.0%   5   20 - 6 9 - 4 22 - 9 11 - 7 +16.0      +5.9 50 +10.1 7 65.7 246 +18.6 8 +18.4 5
25 Mississippi 99.1%   6   19 - 7 8 - 5 21 - 10 10 - 8 +14.9      +6.9 39 +8.0 19 69.0 159 +17.0 16 +16.7 7
28 Mississippi St. 99.6%   5   19 - 7 7 - 6 22 - 9 10 - 8 +14.7      +7.8 27 +6.9 33 68.2 183 +17.1 14 +16.2 8
35 Arkansas 47.4%   11   15 - 11 4 - 9 18 - 13 7 - 11 +12.8      +4.1 77 +8.6 16 70.7 114 +11.7 48 +10.3 12
36 Texas 67.3%   9   16 - 10 5 - 8 19 - 12 8 - 10 +12.8      +7.3 30 +5.5 49 67.9 188 +12.5 42 +13.0 11
44 Georgia 26.0%   16 - 10 4 - 9 18 - 13 6 - 12 +11.6      +4.6 73 +7.0 32 66.8 216 +12.5 43 +9.9 13
50 Oklahoma 35.9%   16 - 10 3 - 10 18 - 13 5 - 13 +10.9      +6.4 41 +4.5 64 69.3 139 +13.3 38 +6.8 14
53 Vanderbilt 45.5%   11   17 - 9 5 - 8 19 - 12 7 - 11 +10.6      +7.1 36 +3.6 78 71.8 79 +13.6 36 +13.4 10
72 LSU 0.8%   14 - 12 3 - 10 15 - 16 4 - 14 +7.9      +3.0 94 +4.9 59 71.2 96 +8.9 65 +6.8 15
84 South Carolina 0.0%   10 - 16 0 - 13 11 - 20 1 - 17 +6.7      +1.9 114 +4.8 63 63.6 299 +4.0 108 -1.8 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Auburn 1.0 96.3 3.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida 2.2 11.2 67.9 13.2 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 4.7 0.0 4.9 19.9 22.1 22.8 17.6 8.5 3.1 1.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama 3.3 4.4 26.5 30.9 20.1 11.3 4.6 1.5 0.6 0.1
Missouri 3.5 1.0 19.8 35.8 23.2 12.6 5.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Kentucky 7.5 0.0 1.4 2.7 6.2 11.8 22.4 25.0 24.7 5.0 0.7 0.1
Texas A&M 4.7 0.4 6.3 15.4 21.3 24.1 21.9 7.2 2.7 0.7 0.0
Mississippi 6.8 0.4 1.9 4.8 10.7 20.4 26.8 21.9 11.2 1.8 0.2
Mississippi St. 7.3 0.0 1.2 3.3 7.8 16.2 25.9 23.3 15.9 5.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 11.2 0.0 0.6 2.4 7.1 23.2 25.4 24.6 12.3 3.9 0.5
Texas 10.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 8.5 16.1 37.2 20.0 8.3 3.9 1.2 0.1
Georgia 12.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 10.6 18.6 27.6 29.0 10.9 1.6
Oklahoma 13.4 0.1 0.4 2.2 5.9 13.1 23.5 39.8 14.9 0.1
Vanderbilt 10.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.3 7.4 24.1 30.8 19.5 11.0 2.2 0.1
LSU 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 10.6 30.3 53.6 0.6
South Carolina 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 5.0 93.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Auburn 16 - 2 0.1 1.2 7.8 24.9 39.2 26.9
Florida 14 - 4 0.1 1.3 8.4 26.5 40.4 23.3
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.2 2.6 13.9 31.4 35.3 16.7
Alabama 13 - 5 2.3 13.7 30.6 33.2 17.2 3.0
Missouri 12 - 6 0.4 3.8 16.0 31.1 33.5 15.2
Kentucky 10 - 8 1.9 15.7 32.8 31.9 15.0 2.7
Texas A&M 11 - 7 2.6 14.8 34.2 32.6 13.7 2.1
Mississippi 10 - 8 5.7 25.0 38.3 24.3 6.2 0.6
Mississippi St. 10 - 8 1.6 10.7 28.7 34.9 20.1 4.0
Arkansas 7 - 11 2.8 13.4 27.6 32.4 18.6 5.1
Texas 8 - 10 2.7 13.2 28.7 32.5 18.7 4.3
Georgia 6 - 12 7.8 28.5 36.7 21.4 5.1 0.5
Oklahoma 5 - 13 11.6 29.5 32.9 18.9 6.3 0.8
Vanderbilt 7 - 11 10.0 27.8 33.6 20.8 7.0 0.9
LSU 4 - 14 35.3 39.6 19.4 4.9 0.8 0.0
South Carolina 1 - 17 19.7 37.9 30.1 10.8 1.6 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Auburn 96.3% 85.1 9.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Florida 11.2% 2.4 7.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Tennessee 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Alabama 4.4% 1.0 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Missouri 1.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Kentucky
Texas A&M 0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi
Mississippi St.
Arkansas
Texas
Georgia
Oklahoma
Vanderbilt
LSU
South Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Auburn 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1   91.1 8.8 0.0 100.0%
Florida 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1   59.4 35.9 4.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Tennessee 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 2   24.7 48.1 21.0 5.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Alabama 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2   34.3 47.3 14.3 3.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
Missouri 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 3   3.6 15.6 26.7 24.9 16.5 8.3 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Kentucky 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 4   1.9 11.1 27.5 26.2 19.2 8.4 3.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Texas A&M 100.0% 3.5% 96.4% 5   1.1 6.6 21.0 26.5 23.0 13.6 5.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Mississippi 99.1% 1.8% 97.3% 6   0.1 0.7 3.9 9.6 20.8 24.3 20.7 11.5 5.2 1.8 0.6 0.9 99.1%
Mississippi St. 99.6% 1.4% 98.2% 5   0.1 1.8 10.0 16.9 27.6 23.6 12.0 5.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 99.6%
Arkansas 47.4% 0.3% 47.1% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.8 11.4 15.6 1.6 0.0 52.6 47.2%
Texas 67.3% 0.4% 66.9% 9   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.4 6.8 11.6 14.3 15.3 13.2 1.1 32.7 67.2%
Georgia 26.0% 0.1% 25.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.7 5.8 13.6 1.8 74.0 25.9%
Oklahoma 35.9% 0.1% 35.8% 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.9 5.1 9.4 16.9 1.8 0.0 64.1 35.9%
Vanderbilt 45.5% 0.1% 45.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.5 8.0 11.4 16.2 1.6 54.6 45.4%
LSU 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 99.2 0.8%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Auburn 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 82.9% 63.0% 44.1% 28.1% 17.4%
Florida 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.3% 78.4% 55.3% 34.7% 20.6% 11.6%
Tennessee 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.7% 69.4% 42.1% 21.9% 11.4% 5.3%
Alabama 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.7% 69.2% 40.9% 20.7% 10.1% 4.3%
Missouri 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.9% 54.6% 25.7% 11.4% 4.9% 2.0%
Kentucky 100.0% 0.1% 100.0% 88.7% 51.2% 22.3% 9.2% 3.6% 1.4%
Texas A&M 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.9% 43.1% 16.5% 6.1% 2.3% 0.8%
Mississippi 99.1% 0.4% 99.0% 67.0% 27.1% 9.7% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Mississippi St. 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 74.1% 32.2% 10.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4%
Arkansas 47.4% 15.9% 40.1% 19.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Texas 67.3% 13.0% 61.4% 29.2% 7.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Georgia 26.0% 14.8% 19.1% 7.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma 35.9% 17.5% 27.1% 10.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 45.5% 16.5% 36.6% 14.1% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
LSU 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 11.2 2.0 18.9 42.1 29.8 6.7 0.4
1st Round 100.0% 10.8 0.0 5.1 30.5 42.9 19.2 2.2 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 1.7 9.5 27.0 36.4 20.5 4.5 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.5 18.1 30.4 27.3 13.2 2.8 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 99.2% 2.9 0.8 8.3 25.5 35.2 23.1 6.4 0.7 0.0
Final Four 90.1% 1.6 9.9 37.8 38.5 12.9 0.9
Final Game 68.4% 0.8 31.6 53.2 15.2
Champion 43.7% 0.4 56.3 43.7