Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Auburn 100.0%   1   17 - 1 5 - 0 27 - 4 15 - 3 +23.1      +15.3 1 +7.8 20 70.4 128 +30.1 1 +28.3 1
5 Florida 100.0%   2   16 - 2 3 - 2 25 - 6 12 - 6 +20.4      +12.0 7 +8.4 15 73.8 59 +20.0 7 +16.1 8
7 Alabama 100.0%   1   15 - 3 4 - 1 23 - 8 12 - 6 +19.4      +13.0 2 +6.4 36 82.7 2 +21.8 5 +22.0 4
8 Tennessee 99.9%   2   16 - 2 3 - 2 24 - 7 11 - 7 +18.7      +8.0 23 +10.7 5 63.5 311 +22.6 3 +16.3 7
15 Kentucky 99.4%   3   14 - 4 3 - 2 22 - 9 11 - 7 +16.6      +13.0 3 +3.6 80 77.3 19 +18.5 13 +18.2 5
19 Mississippi 98.6%   4   15 - 3 4 - 1 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15.6      +7.3 29 +8.3 16 67.2 224 +19.2 9 +23.1 3
21 Texas A&M 97.3%   5   14 - 4 3 - 2 21 - 10 10 - 8 +15.3      +6.9 35 +8.5 14 66.2 238 +17.2 18 +15.6 9
23 Mississippi St. 98.1%   4   15 - 3 3 - 2 22 - 9 10 - 8 +15.1      +9.1 19 +6.1 41 68.6 179 +18.2 16 +16.5 6
29 Missouri 92.1%   6   15 - 3 4 - 1 21 - 10 10 - 8 +13.3      +9.0 20 +4.3 64 68.4 186 +19.0 11 +25.6 2
34 Georgia 76.1%   8   14 - 4 2 - 3 20 - 11 8 - 10 +12.8      +4.0 78 +8.8 10 68.5 185 +16.2 22 +14.1 11
38 Texas 50.9%   11   12 - 6 1 - 4 18 - 13 7 - 11 +12.0      +6.3 44 +5.7 47 68.0 197 +11.3 50 +10.6 12
45 Oklahoma 56.8%   10   14 - 4 1 - 4 19 - 12 6 - 12 +11.2      +7.6 28 +3.6 78 68.3 193 +15.2 25 +3.5 14
46 Arkansas 26.6%   11 - 7 0 - 5 17 - 14 6 - 12 +11.1      +4.5 64 +6.6 31 72.7 77 +9.5 61 -0.3 16
49 Vanderbilt 54.9%   9   15 - 3 3 - 2 19 - 12 7 - 11 +10.7      +6.3 45 +4.5 60 73.3 65 +14.4 29 +14.5 10
64 LSU 10.0%   12 - 6 1 - 4 16 - 15 5 - 13 +8.6      +3.5 90 +5.0 52 72.1 89 +9.6 60 +5.3 13
82 South Carolina 1.2%   10 - 8 0 - 5 13 - 18 3 - 15 +6.8      +1.9 126 +4.8 54 64.5 284 +5.7 95 +0.8 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Auburn 1.5 74.6 14.0 5.7 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida 3.6 11.8 25.8 19.4 14.5 10.2 7.3 4.3 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama 3.5 16.6 24.8 17.8 13.2 9.1 6.6 5.0 3.3 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 4.7 6.4 16.2 15.5 14.2 12.5 10.8 8.5 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 5.8 3.2 9.4 11.6 12.7 12.5 12.1 10.9 9.4 6.9 5.1 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mississippi 5.3 6.0 11.7 13.2 13.3 12.3 12.1 9.8 8.0 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Texas A&M 6.4 2.2 6.8 9.1 10.5 11.7 12.0 11.7 11.2 9.0 6.6 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Mississippi St. 6.8 1.4 6.1 8.3 9.2 10.6 11.4 11.7 11.8 10.8 7.8 5.3 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Missouri 6.3 2.5 8.1 10.1 10.4 12.2 11.6 10.7 10.4 8.8 6.4 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia 9.5 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 3.9 5.4 8.0 11.1 13.0 15.4 13.8 10.9 7.0 4.1 1.9 0.7
Texas 10.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.6 4.0 6.1 7.4 10.4 12.8 14.0 13.7 10.7 8.0 5.3 1.9
Oklahoma 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.9 3.4 5.2 8.4 11.7 15.1 17.7 16.9 12.4 4.3
Arkansas 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.8 5.5 7.4 10.1 13.8 16.3 16.9 15.2 8.4
Vanderbilt 10.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.7 4.7 7.2 10.2 13.0 16.0 15.1 12.8 8.0 3.4 0.6
LSU 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.3 4.4 6.6 10.4 15.8 20.8 23.2 14.0
South Carolina 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.8 13.2 23.3 46.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Auburn 15 - 3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.4 12.0 18.1 22.3 21.4 13.2 4.4
Florida 12 - 6 0.1 0.7 1.6 4.8 9.5 17.1 21.9 21.7 14.9 6.5 1.2
Alabama 12 - 6 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.4 10.2 15.4 20.3 20.0 15.1 8.6 2.9 0.5
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 5.0 9.6 16.0 20.8 19.9 14.9 7.9 3.1 0.4
Kentucky 11 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.4 8.8 14.8 18.6 19.7 16.3 9.7 4.3 1.3 0.2
Mississippi 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.1 6.8 12.9 17.6 19.4 17.3 12.0 6.3 2.6 0.7 0.1
Texas A&M 10 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.1 11.8 16.8 19.4 18.1 12.9 7.5 3.2 0.8 0.1
Mississippi St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.2 8.2 12.9 18.1 19.6 16.7 11.4 5.6 2.4 0.5 0.1
Missouri 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 2.6 6.2 10.6 16.3 18.9 18.6 12.9 7.9 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.0
Georgia 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.9 12.8 19.3 20.2 18.0 11.4 5.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
Texas 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.2 11.1 16.8 18.3 17.9 13.0 7.6 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
Oklahoma 6 - 12 0.5 2.4 6.9 14.4 19.7 19.5 17.0 10.9 5.4 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 6 - 12 0.2 1.1 4.2 9.2 15.4 19.7 18.6 15.0 9.5 4.7 1.8 0.4 0.1
Vanderbilt 7 - 11 1.0 5.6 12.3 18.4 21.4 18.1 12.1 6.7 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
LSU 5 - 13 1.6 7.2 15.6 21.6 21.5 15.6 9.6 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 3 - 15 3.3 11.0 20.3 22.9 18.2 13.0 7.0 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Auburn 74.6% 59.3 11.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Florida 11.8% 5.1 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alabama 16.6% 8.5 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 6.4% 2.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 3.2% 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 6.0% 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
Texas A&M 2.2% 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Mississippi St. 1.4% 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri 2.5% 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Georgia 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas 0.0% 0.0
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Vanderbilt 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU
South Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Auburn 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1   86.5 12.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Florida 100.0% 17.7% 82.2% 2   30.2 33.8 20.3 9.4 3.9 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Alabama 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 1   35.7 36.1 17.6 6.9 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Tennessee 99.9% 10.8% 89.1% 2   22.3 34.7 23.1 11.4 4.6 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.9%
Kentucky 99.4% 5.6% 93.8% 3   7.5 18.7 25.5 21.0 13.2 6.0 2.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.6 99.4%
Mississippi 98.6% 4.6% 94.0% 4   2.8 8.1 17.6 21.0 19.3 13.2 8.1 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.4 98.5%
Texas A&M 97.3% 3.5% 93.8% 5   1.7 5.7 12.3 16.7 18.9 16.2 10.7 5.9 4.2 2.6 2.2 0.2 2.7 97.2%
Mississippi St. 98.1% 3.2% 94.9% 4   2.5 7.7 18.3 20.1 18.1 13.1 8.0 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.1 1.9 98.0%
Missouri 92.1% 1.9% 90.1% 6   0.5 2.1 6.4 11.1 16.0 17.1 14.6 10.0 6.6 3.6 3.6 0.3 8.0 91.9%
Georgia 76.1% 0.8% 75.3% 8   0.1 0.4 1.8 4.7 8.9 11.2 11.4 10.0 9.7 8.3 8.8 0.9 23.9 75.9%
Texas 50.9% 0.7% 50.2% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 3.1 5.2 7.5 8.9 8.7 7.6 7.5 0.7 0.0 49.1 50.6%
Oklahoma 56.8% 0.3% 56.5% 10   0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.7 6.1 8.2 10.1 11.4 12.7 1.1 43.2 56.7%
Arkansas 26.6% 0.3% 26.4% 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.2 7.7 0.8 73.4 26.4%
Vanderbilt 54.9% 0.4% 54.5% 9   0.0 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.9 7.5 8.8 9.3 8.9 9.2 0.7 45.1 54.7%
LSU 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.2 3.8 0.4 90.0 10.0%
South Carolina 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.1 98.8 1.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Auburn 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.5% 82.8% 61.8% 42.1% 26.6% 16.1%
Florida 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.4% 71.2% 44.7% 25.8% 14.2% 7.1%
Alabama 100.0% 0.1% 100.0% 96.7% 69.5% 42.0% 22.1% 11.1% 5.4%
Tennessee 99.9% 0.1% 99.8% 94.8% 65.3% 37.0% 18.7% 8.8% 4.0%
Kentucky 99.4% 0.7% 99.1% 86.6% 51.6% 22.9% 10.0% 4.0% 1.5%
Mississippi 98.6% 1.1% 98.1% 78.8% 41.5% 17.1% 7.1% 3.0% 1.2%
Texas A&M 97.3% 2.4% 96.4% 73.1% 36.0% 14.5% 5.6% 2.0% 0.7%
Mississippi St. 98.1% 1.1% 97.5% 77.1% 39.1% 15.4% 5.7% 1.8% 0.6%
Missouri 92.1% 4.0% 90.1% 59.4% 23.2% 8.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Georgia 76.1% 9.9% 71.3% 41.8% 14.5% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Texas 50.9% 8.4% 47.0% 25.0% 7.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Oklahoma 56.8% 14.2% 49.5% 24.5% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Arkansas 26.6% 8.5% 22.6% 10.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 54.9% 10.2% 49.4% 23.6% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
LSU 10.0% 4.3% 7.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 11.6 0.0 1.0 10.5 32.5 39.0 15.3 1.6
1st Round 100.0% 11.3 0.1 2.5 17.1 38.8 32.2 8.7 0.6
2nd Round 100.0% 8.9 0.0 0.3 1.9 8.8 24.3 33.9 22.0 7.8 0.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.6 18.8 30.5 26.7 11.9 2.4 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 98.8% 2.8 1.3 10.3 28.7 35.7 18.6 4.9 0.4
Final Four 87.1% 1.4 12.9 41.3 35.5 9.7 0.6
Final Game 62.6% 0.7 37.4 51.4 11.1
Champion 37.1% 0.4 62.9 37.1